\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
Event: the company released the performance express for 2021. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 6.15 billion yuan / + 16.49%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 56 million yuan, turning losses into profits.
The annual performance turned losses into profits, and we are optimistic about the recovery of hotel business and tourism demand, driving the improvement of the prosperity of the industry. Throughout the year, thanks to the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation in 2021, the overall recovery trend of the hotel industry is obvious, superimposed on the upgrading of the company’s product structure, and the proportion of medium and high-end stores is increased. In 2021, the company’s RevPAR (revenue per saleable room) increased by 20.2% year-on-year. However, on the revenue side, the company achieved an operating revenue of 6.15 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 16.49%, lower than the growth rate of RevPAR. Considering that the company has 26 net closed Direct stores in 2021q1-q3, we believe that the growth rate of the company’s overall revenue is lower than that of RevPAR due to the decline in the number and proportion of Direct stores and the contribution of a single direct store is higher than that of franchise stores. Under the normal prevention and control of the superimposed epidemic, the gathering activities decreased or affected the company’s catering and conference revenue. On the profit side, when the revenue increased by 16.49% year-on-year and the expenses such as rent and manpower were relatively rigid, the company’s performance side turned loss into profit in 2021. In the fourth quarter alone, Q4 company realized an operating revenue of 1.427 billion yuan / – 16.35%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company changed from profit to loss, with a net loss of 69 million yuan in the first quarter. We believe that the repeated sporadic outbreaks in the northern region of Q4 and the tightening of control policies around Beijing during the preparation of the Winter Olympic Games have affected the recovery of passenger flow. Looking ahead, China’s PMI has been higher than the boom and bust line for four consecutive months since the end of 2021. As a forward-looking indicator, it shows that China’s economic prosperity remains at a high level, providing favorable conditions for the recovery of business demand in the hotel industry. At the same time, recently, the state has continued to release favorable policies for the tourism service industry. After the Winter Olympic Games and the two sessions have ended one after another, it is expected that the flow control policy is expected to be further liberalized, so as to further warm up the tourism demand of the hotel industry. Therefore, we are optimistic that the recovery of business and tourism demand will promote the prosperity of the hotel industry.
Continue to optimize the brand matrix, successfully achieve the goal of opening stores, and expand the scale of stores to a record high. The epidemic has cleared the supply side of the industry, and the hotel chain rate and concentration in the post epidemic era are expected to accelerate. The company actively complements the medium and high-end product clusters, and grasps the sinking market opportunity through the cloud hotel of “small investment, light management and high empowerment”. The perfect brand matrix and optimized product model make the company more able to meet the needs of owners in different regions, different property conditions and different capital volume, so as to grasp the industry concentration, improve the dividend and realize the significant acceleration of store expansion. In 2021, the company opened 1418 stores, with a year-on-year increase of about 56.0%. The scale of stores reached the highest level in history, and successfully completed the previously proposed business target of 14001600 stores in 2021. From the perspective of store opening rhythm, 184 / 324 / 325 / 585 stores were exhibited in Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 in 2021, showing a gradual acceleration trend during the year. Under the high-speed opening, by the end of 2021, the total number of hotels of the company had reached 5916, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.9%.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: the hotel industry continues to recover after the epidemic. The company firmly promotes the four core strategies of “development first, product king, member oriented and efficiency empowerment”, speeds up the opening of stores against the market, and the goal of “ten thousand stores in three years” is expected. We estimate that the operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.15, 8.11 and 9.13 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 56, 930 and 1.3 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.06, 0.94 and 1.32 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 490.44, 29.28 and 20.98 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation is developing faster than expected, the expansion speed of new stores is slower than expected, and the franchise management risk.
