\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
Core view
Analysis of performance express: turning losses into profits in 2021, the epidemic has put pressure on Q4 performance. The company released the performance express in 2021. In 2021, the company is expected to realize an operating revenue of 6.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.49%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 55.68 million yuan, with a loss of 500 million yuan in the same period of last year. Q4 is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 1.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.35%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be – 69.41 million yuan, up from 59.01 million yuan in the same period last year.
RevPAR recovered to 75% in the same period in 2019. It is recommended to pay attention to the pace of subsequent recovery. 21. RevPAR in the whole year increased by 20.2% compared with 2020, about 119 yuan, and recovered to 75.3% of the level in the same period in 2019. Due to the repeated epidemic situation in northern China, the operating profit of Q4 / 148 hotels in the three quarters before the Olympic Games was not strict, but the operating profit of Q4 / 148 hotels in northern China was not recovered due to the repeated epidemic situation in the three quarters before the Olympic Games.
The number of stores opened reached a record high and the structure continued to improve. A total of 1418 stores were opened in 2021, an increase of about 56.0% over the same period last year, meeting the business target of 14001600 stores planned in 2021, which is a record high; Q4 opened 575 stores in a single quarter, an increase of 76.9% month on month, and the exhibition speed increased. The company focuses on the development of Cloud Hotel model. As of Q3, light management hotels accounted for 23.2%, up 6.6pcts from the end of the 20th year, and expanded rapidly. The company also attaches importance to the medium and high-end market. In October, the first travel anno hotel management company was established. Liu Chenjun, the former president of Wyndham Greater China, took office to help the company develop the luxury hotel market.
The fixed growth of RMB 3 billion was realized, and diversified businesses helped the development. In December 2021, the company set a fixed increase of 3 billion yuan, of which 2.1 billion yuan was used for hotel expansion and decoration upgrading projects to further deepen the national layout and improve the service quality. In September 2021, the company released such as life club, and launched the first free global purchase platform exclusive to members, providing members with new value other than accommodation and adding new profit growth points.
Investment suggestion: the company will accelerate the pace of store expansion and steadily promote the core strategy. With the improvement of the epidemic situation, the company is expected to fully release the performance flexibility. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 0.6/9.0/1.23 billion, corresponding to eps0.5 billion 06 / 0.91/1.25 yuan, corresponding to dynamic pe483 9 / 30.2 / 22.1x.
Risk warning: covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated; The number of new stores is less than expected; Risk of intensified industry competition; Macroeconomic downside risks.
