Satellite Chemistry ( Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.Ltd(002648) )
\u3000\u30001. Company profile
Founded in 2005, the company is one of the few manufacturers of acrylic acid, ester and functional polymer materials with the whole industrial chain in China. In the past, the company gradually extended upstream and entered the C2 industry in 2021; In the future, the company will plan to add lithium battery solvent, EAA, acrylonitrile and other products, research and develop products such as Poe, and get involved in the field of new materials and new energy chemicals.
\u3000\u30002. C3 sector: with PDH and acrylic acid as the core
The C3 industrial chain of the company is highly integrated, and takes acrylic acid as the core, which is unique among Chinese peers, so that the company can enjoy the prosperity brought by the tightening of supply and demand and the optimization of the pattern of acrylic acid industry; It can also enjoy the cost advantage brought by route difference PDH and the cost advantage of self-sufficiency of butanol and octanol. The company’s acrylic acid production capacity and acrylic acid production capacity are 660000 tons and 750000 tons respectively, both of which are the first in China. From 2022 to 2025, the growth rate of supply and demand of butyl acrylate is almost the same, and the profitability of butyl acrylate is expected to remain at a good level in 2021.
\u3000\u30003. C2 sector: route advantages are difficult to replicate, and new downstream materials help growth
The company began to lay out the C2 industrial chain in 2017, and the first phase of the company’s project was officially put into operation in the first half of 2021. From the upstream point of view, the company imports low-cost ethane from the United States, which not only has cost advantages, but also is difficult to be copied by other enterprises; From the downstream point of view, the company has entered high value-added products such as electrolyte and solvent.
The ethane cracking route adopted by the company has multiple advantages: 1) strong cost advantage and high profitability; 2) There are certain barriers to the acquisition of ethane resources; 3) The carbon emission advantage of ethane route is obvious; 4) A large amount of hydrogen is produced by ethane cracking.
\u3000\u30004. Long term growth space of hydrogen energy layout
In 2023, hydrogen fueled vehicles in the Yangtze River Delta are expected to require a total of 170000 ~ 210000 tons of hydrogen. Based on the profit of 17 yuan / kg, the total market space is about 2.9 billion ~ 3.6 billion.
\u3000\u30005. Profit forecast and investment perspective
In 2022 / 2023, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 8.334 billion and 10.717 billion. EPS in 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 3.69/4.85/6.23 respectively. The current PE valuation is 12 / 9 / 7 times in 21, 22 and 23 years respectively. Considering that phase II of the company’s C2 project will be put into operation in June 2022; 250000 tons of g3g4 hydrogen peroxide were put into operation; Long term profit space brought by hydrogen energy. Give 9 times PE in 2023, target price 56.07 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the rise of propane price brings the risk that the income of C3 industrial chain is lower than expected; The risk that the company’s production progress is slower than expected; The risk of future price decline of some products.
