\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 96 Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) )
Key investment points
On March 3, the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 4.127 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.04%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 647 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.96%. At the same time, the company issued the fixed increase plan for 2022. This time, the company plans to raise no more than 3.1 billion yuan for R & D projects of vehicle operating system, R & D and industrialization projects of edge computing station, R & D and industrialization projects of extended reality (XR), R & D projects of distributed computing network technology and supplementary working capital.
Q4, the three core businesses, performed well and promoted the high growth of annual revenue. After a brief slowdown in Q3 growth, the company achieved a revenue of 4.127 billion yuan in 2021, including 1.455 billion yuan in 21q4, a year-on-year increase of 73% and a month on month increase of 48.76%. The company’s three business lines 21q4 performed well in an all-round way. In 2021, the company’s mobile phone smart software / smart car / smart Internet of things business revenue was 1.631/12.24/1.272 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 40.33% / 58.91% / 82.87% respectively. Among them, the three business lines of 21q4 achieved revenue of 576 / 443 / 446 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 79% / 53% / 90% respectively. In terms of smart software business, the promotion of 5g mobile phones has accelerated, and the extension of mobile phone application field has continuously improved the value of mobile phone system. The company’s core service provider of card operating system has continuously strengthened its leading position in the mobile phone field; In terms of smart car business, the company has created a SOA architecture integration cockpit platform, which keeps the high growth of the cockpit field, continuously increases the layout of automatic driving business, accelerates the connection and integration of the two fields, and gradually obtains more orders from head customers, which is expected to continue to grow at a high rate in the future; In the field of Internet of things, based on the core advantages of operating system development technology and the differentiation of software services, the company continues to invest in R & D and expand product categories on the basis of the continuous growth of the original categories, open up the underlying technologies, enhance technology reusability and realize scale effect, so as to improve the gross profit level. We believe that the company’s 21q4 revenue returns to the high growth state, and the progress of each business line once again confirms the company’s differentiation ability in the core card position of the operating system and software services, which will become a unique competitive barrier for the company to maintain high growth rate in the future and be continuously consolidated.
Cost pressure and increased demand for goods preparation temporarily dragged down financial performance, and R & D investment accelerated the transformation of achievements. In 2021, the operating cost of the company was 2.5 billion yuan, with an operating cost rate of 60.6%, an increase of 4.82 PCT year-on-year, mainly due to the purchase cost of hardware products and materials of 966 million yuan, an increase of 138.68% year-on-year. The company’s net operating cash flow in 2021 was 139 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 202 million yuan, mainly due to the increase of purchase expenses due to the substantial increase of inventory reserves of raw materials in 2021. In 2021, the capitalization rate of the company’s R & D expenditure rose sharply to 37.91%, mainly due to the phased achievement transformation of the investment in fixed increase projects in 2020. We believe that in 2021, the global economic situation continued to fluctuate due to the impact of the epidemic and geographical situation, the supply chain pressure of chips and other materials remained high, and the shipping cost continued to be high. The company took positive measures to deal with this situation, which affected its financial performance to a certain extent. With the subsequent recovery of global economic operation, the company’s financial performance will return to normal. At the same time, the high capitalization rate of R & D investment in the short term also reflects the smooth progress of the company’s R & D projects, which will contribute more increment at the revenue end in the future.
It will raise 3.1 billion yuan and increase the size of the tuyere track. The fixed increase fund-raising plan released by the company will raise no more than 3.1 billion yuan, mainly invested in vehicle operating system R & D projects, edge computing station R & D and industrialization projects, extended reality (XR) R & D and industrialization projects, and distributed computing network technology R & D projects. The remaining 900 million yuan is planned to supplement working capital. In the digital economy, all kinds of traditional electronic products have a new demand for computing power at the product end. The establishment of “cloud edge end” system has become an important trend in the future; The emerging information industry ecology and business demand for human-computer interaction are also promoting the research and development of XR industrial ecosystem. At present, the edge computing and XR industries are in the stage of high fragmentation and lack of industry rule system. In addition to maintaining the consistent high investment in the automotive field, the company also invests a large amount of funds in the R & D investment of edge computing and XR industries, in order to grasp the cutting-edge tuyere period of the two major tracks and create a more perfect Internet of things product system, And lead the development of the industry, strive for the rule making ability of the industry, and continue to benefit with the development of the broad market of the Internet of things.
Investment suggestion: the company’s business revenue is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend, but the large amount of forward-looking investment brought by the fixed raising investment project may put pressure on the short-term profit performance. Based on this, we adjusted the company’s revenue and profit forecasts for 2022 and 2023, and added a new profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.006/82.03/10.737 billion yuan (the predicted value before 2022 and 2023 will be 5.598/7.149 billion yuan), the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 924/12.36/17.17 billion yuan (the predicted value before 2022 and 2023 will be 9.39/12.85 billion yuan), and EPS will be 2.17/2.91/4.04 yuan, The PE corresponding to the current share price is 48 / 36 / 26 times respectively, maintaining the company’s “buy” rating.
Risk warning events: 1) 5g promotion and application is not as expected; 2) The supervision of landing was tightened and the promotion of automatic driving was less than expected; 3) Chip iteration and supply are not as expected; 4) The entry of emerging Internet forces and the intensification of industry competition; 5) The risks of technological blockade and transaction obstacles caused by China US scientific and technological confrontation and geopolitical turbulence; 6) The risk that the progress of the fixed increase project is less than expected.
