\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 38 Chenguang Biotech Group Co.Ltd(300138) )
Event: the company released the 2021 express: it is expected to achieve a revenue of 4.871 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of + 24.48%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 354 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.21%; Deduct non net profit of 293 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.98%.
The revenue performance of 21q4 exceeded expectations, and the performance growth became more and more stable. Single 21q4 achieved a revenue of 1.666 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 38.24%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 943797 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 51.99%; Deduct non net profit of 651629 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 46.71%. The annual net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 7.27%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.43pct; The net interest rate of Q4 attributable to the parent company was 5.67%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.51pct. We believe that, on the one hand, the improvement of profitability comes from the increase in the price of chili essence due to the limited supply of raw materials, so the gross profit margin has increased significantly; On the other hand, the impact of the high base brought by lutein last year gradually subsided in the second half of the year, and the performance side had a bright performance exceeding expectations. We believe that in the past two years, under the background of sharp fluctuations in the prices of the two core varieties lutein and capsicum essence, the company has ensured an increasingly stable performance growth with good momentum by virtue of the improvement of its own operation and management ability.
The core varieties are stable, and the sales momentum of the second echelon is good. In terms of core varieties, the sales volume of capsicum red, the leading product, was more than 8000 tons, an increase of about 12% at the same time; Affected by India’s supply, the price of Capsicum essence raw materials rose sharply, realizing a sales volume of more than 1100 tons and a new high in revenue; The sales volume of lutein products is nearly 300 million grams. Among the second tier products, new achievements have been made in the market development of nutritional and medicinal products. The sales momentum of lycopene, rosemary extract, silymarin, curcumin and other products has continued to improve. The sales of spices have increased significantly, especially Stevia products.
The contribution of Zambia’s raw material base has increased + the volume of new varieties, and the profitability has room to improve. (1) Planting and lifting business: in the medium and long term, the company’s core varieties of planting and lifting business optimize the production line + increase the proportion of high gross margin categories with obvious technical advantages + Zambia base gradually starts to supply raw materials, and the profitability still has room to improve. According to the announcement of the company’s early investment in Zambia’s natural pigment project, we expect that Zambia will make more and more contributions to the supply of low-cost raw materials in the next two years, and the cost advantage of the company will be further improved. (2) Cottonseed business: carry out hedging business, and the gross profit margin is expected to remain stable; The medium and long-term stripping plan remains unchanged, and the profitability elasticity of the company is more significant after the statement is issued.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: category expansion + obvious cost advantage, optimistic about the steady increase of net interest rate. The main reasons why we are optimistic about the company are: first, the leading extraction technology + strong control of raw materials, and obvious cost advantage; Second, the number one category in the world has gradually increased. With the increase of market share, the bargaining power of categories has been continuously strengthened, driving the increase of net interest rate; Third, the development of nutrition and health care and the extraction of industrial marijuana can be expected, with large space and high profit margin, and the profit growth is expected to be faster in the future. According to the latest performance express of the company, we adjusted the profit forecast. From 2021 to 2023, the revenue was RMB 4.87/57.2/6.88 billion respectively, with an increase of 24.4% / 17.6% / 20.2%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 355 / 439 / 570 million respectively, with an increase of 32.6% / 23.6% / 29.9%, and the EPS was RMB 0.67/0.82/1.07 respectively (the previous time was RMB 0.66/0.81/1.05), corresponding to the current PE of 26x, 21x and 16x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the risk of price fluctuation of raw materials, the risk of continuous spread of global epidemic, the risk of exchange rate fluctuation caused by weather and other natural factors, and the risk of untimely update of information and data used in the research report.
