Reviewing the A-share market last week, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued to adjust the pattern of shock. The three major stock indexes are subject to multiple factors. The pressure on the top is not small. The index fell back, and the Shanghai index was relatively resistant to decline, while the trend of Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index is more tragic.
As stated by Ping An Securities, market bottom will gradually approach, and structural opportunities are expected to increase . It is suggested to pay attention to policy supported new infrastructure, high-end manufacturing such as integrated circuits, medical (traditional Chinese Medicine) and other related industrial chains, as well as sectors and stocks whose annual report / quarterly report may exceed expectations.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that the index fluctuated and fell last Friday, and the trend is still repeated. In particular, the performance of the gem index is relatively low, while the recently active sectors such as East West calculation, construction and oil and gas have also fallen into adjustment, and the selling pressure of the market is still released.
However, with the gradual weakening of external disturbance factors and the enhancement of stable growth expectation brought by the convening of important meetings, it is expected that the market will gradually stabilize. Pay attention to the changes of volume and energy and policy trends . Operationally, it is recommended to pay attention to the industries such as finance, building materials, steel, coal and TMT.
In terms of the future market, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that due to the tense external geographical relations and the expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, we expect the A-share market to continue to “grind the bottom repeatedly” in the short term, and we are not pessimistic about the A-share market in the medium and long term . In the short term, the main line of “steady growth” is still the main idea of allocation.
Specific to the industry, the agency further analyzed that pays attention to three main investment lines : first, the policy of “steady growth” allocation of varieties, such as “banking, real estate, building materials and construction”; Second, “food and beverage, breeding, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) “, etc. expected to benefit from price increase (price increase); Third, the theme of benefiting from the promotion of policies (support), “new energy (vehicles), digital economy, East West calculation, agriculture, rural areas and farmers”, etc.
In the macro aspect, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that the steady growth policy is expected to exert direct force in infrastructure, real estate and other fields. We estimate that in order to achieve the goal of GDP growth of 5.5% in 2022, we need to meet the following requirements: consumption growth of more than 6.6%, fixed asset investment growth of more than 4.2%, and export growth of more than 9%. In fixed asset investment, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is about 6.5%, the growth rate of manufacturing investment needs to be greater than 5%, and the growth rate of real estate investment needs to be greater than 0%. Due to the strong correlation between consumption and manufacturing investment and the endogenous driving force of economic growth, the policy effect will take some time to appear, and the export is highly uncertain due to the impact of external demand. The direct force of the government will focus on infrastructure investment and real estate regulation policies.
In addition, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) pointed out that it is still necessary to pay close attention to the impact of the external environment such as the foreign situation on the Chinese market. The rise of regional risks may make China’s “steady growth” face a more complex situation and may make China’s steady growth more urgent. However, if the geographical risks do not significantly exceed expectations, there is no need to worry too much about the future performance of a shares.
In terms of structure, growth stocks have released their risks in the early sharp correction, and are gradually entering the stage of “bargain hunting”; The “steady growth” sector fluctuates more, but there may still be room for performance in the future . On the whole, the market style is better than the “steady growth” in the early stage, and it is possible to gradually transition to a relatively balanced stage.
In terms of operational strategy, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) further stated that currently focuses on three directions : 1) areas with potential support for policy development, including infrastructure, industrial chains related to stabilizing demand for real estate (building materials, construction, household appliances, home appliances, etc.), brokerage finance, etc;
2) for the middle and lower reaches consumption that has been adjusted in 2021, the valuation is not high, and the medium and long-term prospects are still clear, choose stocks from the bottom up, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, the Internet, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc;
3) the risk of manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, has been released, and may enter the bargain hunting stage in the future.
In addition, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) pointed out that maintained “steady growth” + “small high tech” and “dumbbell” configuration configuration. On the one hand, financial, real estate, petroleum, petrochemical, coal and other sectors benefiting from “steady growth” and expected price rise; On the other hand, we will continue to find targets that meet the characteristics of “small high-tech” from bottom to top in the more adjusted medicine, computer and “new semi army”.
For a long time, continues to focus on the five major directions of scientific and technological innovation . 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
