Ignoring the strong rise of overseas markets, the stock indexes of Shenzhen and Shanghai gave the cross star line of rising and falling under the consensus on the inclusion of ETF into interconnection, the release of the three-year action plan for the construction of Shanghai civil aviation industry chain (2022-2024), the accelerated risk clearing of theme concept stocks, and the reversal of the weak trend of last Friday by more than half of the industry segmentation indexes, forming a strong bull attack and resonance, Test the low point for the volatility and make the demand for the shadow line around the disk. The volatility did not break the strong support and met the second bottom range.
In terms of the Shanghai stock index, the contraction of the cross star shock line is good, the technical consolidation has not changed and damaged the long arrangement of the medium-term average, and the strong support of the resonance point of the lower neck line, so as to clarify the secondary bottom of the repair index, which is conducive to the return of the stock index to the strong area in the future; The shrinking cross star at the end of the three waves of the gem index has reached the strong support of the triple bottom neck line. If a strong large-scale upward attack positive line is given tomorrow, it is expected to give the operation signal to return to the 3400 point area under the combined resonance of the morning star k line; In combination with the strong support of Shenzhen Component Index’s shrinkage cross star’s refusal to break the previous low and Kechuang 50 index’s shrinkage cross star’s reaching 1350 points, it is expected that the shadow line under the weekly line with lower inertia will not reverse the judgment view of “restraining first and then raising” that the annual line is coming to an end.
At the close of the market, MNM concept, household goods, household appliances, tobacco concept, cultivation diamond, industrial marijuana, CXO concept, commercial chain, gas supply and heating, food and beverage, transportation services, vitamins, sugar substitute concept, generic drugs, lithium mine, medical beauty and other sectors led the rise, with large-scale net capital inflow and an average volatility of more than 1.5%, which constituted a strong positive leading and driving force for the index. However, the power exchange concept, seed industry, cloud games, UHV, baidu concept, Hongmeng concept, intellectual property, quantum technology, smart grid, gambling concept, data center, polysilicon, driverless, IP realization, meta universe concept, wine making, Internet and other sectors led the decline, with an average volatility of more than 1.5%, Make it clear that the high-low switching at the end of the year is the position adjustment and stock exchange of institutional capital layout and 2022 market. Combined with the long short energy ratio, 81 stocks rose by more than 9%, 241 stocks rose by more than 5%, 547 stocks rose by more than 3%, 32 stocks fell by more than 9%, 134 stocks fell by more than 5%, and 360 stocks fell by more than 3%. It is expected that the speculation of subject-matter concept stocks with extreme ups and downs will cool down, which is the demand of the market in 2021. It does not break the strong support, and continues the trend shareholding strategy to wait for rise.
In terms of news, the national top-level design stressed that development is the basis and key to solving all China’s problems. We must adhere to economic construction as the center and make long-term and arduous efforts; Continue to make in-depth research and research around innovating macro-control, expanding market players and ensuring basic people’s livelihood, and contribute insights; We will not relax our efforts to do a good job in grain and important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) production and supply, strictly implement the main responsibility of local food security, make great efforts to do a good job in grain production, stabilize the sown area of grain, and promote the increase of soybean and oil production; We should effectively ensure the supply of agricultural materials and the stability of prices, mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers, strengthen field management, and make every effort to ensure a bumper summer harvest; We should implement the strategy of storing grain in the land and technology, and strengthen the protection and quality construction of cultivated land; The requirements for cultivated land protection should be very clear, and 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land must be worthy of its name; Expand the planting of soybeans and oilseeds, and achieve assessable results; Implement the mayor responsibility system of “vegetable basket” to ensure the supply safety of pork, vegetables and other agricultural and sideline products.
The central bank stressed that we should improve the formation and transmission mechanism of market-oriented interest rates, optimize the central bank’s policy interest rate system, strengthen the supervision of deposit interest rates, give play to the efficiency of the reform of quoted interest rates in the loan market, and promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises; Deepen the market-oriented reform of exchange rate, enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate, guide enterprises and financial institutions to adhere to the concept of “risk neutrality”, strengthen expectation management, grasp the balance between internal and external equilibrium, and maintain the basic stability of RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level; Build an institutional mechanism for effective financial support to the real economy, improve the financial support innovation system, guide financial institutions to increase medium and long-term loans to manufacturing industry, strive to adapt the financial support to private enterprises to the contribution of private enterprises to economic and social development, and improve the green financial system with the goal of promoting carbon peak and carbon neutralization; Safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers, better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market; Promote the high-level two-way opening of finance, and improve the ability of economic and financial management and risk prevention and control under the conditions of opening up; China’s economic development is facing the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations. It is necessary to strengthen cross cycle adjustment, make overall arrangements for the convergence of macro policies this year and next, and support high-quality economic development; We should give full play to the dual functions of the aggregate and structure of monetary policy tools, increase support for the real economy, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, enhance the stability of the growth of total credit, maintain the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale, basically match the economic growth rate, and stabilize the macroeconomic market.
The Ministry of Finance stressed that it actively launched policies conducive to economic stability and stressed that the policy force should be appropriately advanced. In 2022, the proactive fiscal policy will focus on precision and sustainability, implement greater tax reduction and fee reduction, and enhance the vitality of market players; Maintain appropriate expenditure intensity and improve expenditure accuracy; Reasonably arrange special bonds of local governments to ensure the construction of key projects; Increase the transfer payment from the central government to local governments and firmly grasp the bottom line of “Three Guarantees” at the grass-roots level; Adhere to the tight living of Party and government organs and run all undertakings thrifty; Strictly enforce financial discipline and straighten out financial order; Strengthen risk prevention and control and firmly hold the bottom line of no systemic risk; Fully tap China’s demand potential and give full play to the role of Finance in stabilizing investment and promoting consumption; Optimize the management of financial science and technology funds and enhance the toughness of industrial chain and supply chain; Ensure the priority development of agriculture and rural areas and accelerate the modernization of agriculture and rural areas; Improve fiscal and tax support policies for ecological civilization and promote green and low-carbon development; Guard against and defuse the risk of hidden debt of local governments, and seriously hold accountable for the false debt and new hidden debt; Promote financial resources to the grass-roots level, continue to make good use of the direct financial fund mechanism, effectively prevent grass-roots financial operation risks, and make it clear that the global real economy in the stage of “epidemic” may also be directly or indirectly affected and impacted, which will affect and restrict the promotion and implementation of monetary and fiscal policies to a certain extent. This is the “cross year red envelope” market or a turnaround, But it won’t be the key to the end.
The author believes that state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises adhere to innovation driven development, actively invest in strategic emerging industries such as big data and artificial intelligence, strengthen key core technology research, vigorously cultivate new economic and new business forms, constantly expand new driving forces, and accelerate the realization of high-quality development; Taking the four cities as the strategic fulcrum, the Ministry of education has driven the cluster development of colleges and universities in the central and western regions, deeply promoted the construction of new engineering, new medical, new agricultural and new liberal arts, and promoted the upgrading of the “Muke western travel plan” from 1.0 to 2.0; In combination with promoting the nearby development and consumption of wind power photovoltaic in the East, central and southern regions in 2022, the implementation plan for carbon peak in the energy field, the plan for the modern energy system in the 14th five year plan, the opinions on improving the system, mechanism, policies and measures for green and low-carbon transformation of energy and the plans in various sub fields will be issued, Actively promote the cluster development of offshore wind power and the development of wind power photovoltaic bases in the “Three North” areas, pay close attention to the construction of wind power photovoltaic bases in deserts, Gobi and deserts, start the implementation of “wind control action for thousands of villages and townships” and “Sunshine Action for thousands of households”, and make it clear that the stock indexes of Shenzhen and Shanghai may have the demand of shock and bottom grinding in the second bottom of technology, but the volatility has not broken the important strong support, It is still a reasonable distribution of opportunity points. In view of this, we continue to be optimistic about the core benefit sectors such as semiconductors, components, software services, industrial machines, rare earths, UHV, energy storage, smart grid, charging pile, lithium battery, photovoltaic, quantum technology, new materials, lithography, data center, electrical equipment, aviation, meta universe concept, Internet of things, artificial intelligence and hydrogen energy, and buy long on strategic bargain hunting, Should be able to harvest cross year red envelope income. (Note: the above information is only for reference and not for specific operation suggestions. There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious.)
Author: Zhang Cuixia, chief investment adviser of Jufeng investment
attached: daily analysis diagram of different indexes (daily analysis diagram of Shanghai stock index 2021-12-27) (daily analysis diagram of gem index 2021-12-27)
(Xinhua Finance)
