stock markets at home and abroad generally fell this week the geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine continued to depress market sentiment. The US stock index fell 1.3%, the S & P 500 index fell 1.27%, the NASDAQ index fell 2.78%, Germany DAX and France CAC40 fell more than 10%, oil distribution rose more than 20% to US $118 / barrel, and wheat futures rose more than 40%. The Chinese market generally fell, with the Shanghai index falling 0.11%, the Shenzhen component index falling 2.93% and the gem index falling 3.75%. In terms of industries, transportation (3.65%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (3.49%) and comprehensive (2.52%) led the increase; Automobiles (- 4.47%), electronics (- 4.26%) and electrical equipment (- 3.54%) led the decline.
Overseas, the current risk sentiment is still affected by the further escalation of the Russian Ukrainian incident in the short term, and the game in the commodity market intensifies. On the other hand, the expectation of the Federal Reserve's substantial interest rate increase has been revised after the voice of the Federal Reserve Powell. At present, the probability of 25bp interest rate increase in March implicit in CME interest rate futures has reached 95%, The yield of 10-year US bonds also fell from a high of 2% to 1.73%.
essential consumer goods are expected to become the ultimate beneficiary industry of the policy of stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand in China, the government work report sets the GDP target of 2022 at about 5.5%. Under the background of more complex internal and external situations, the economic aggregate target is still "stable". It is noteworthy that under the background of rising employment pressure and weak recovery of domestic demand, policies have made efforts to stabilize employment and expand domestic demand. Historically, the promotion of similar policies often has a more direct impact on essential consumer goods. In addition, while the macro policy remains positive and the tax reduction and fee reduction efforts are made, the assistance policy for the service industry greatly affected by the epidemic is expected to be implemented gradually, and the recovery of consumption expectation is expected to drive the offline economy to recover. Thirdly, following the central economic work conference's proposal of "grasping the supply guarantee of primary products", this year's government work report focuses on strengthening grain and other important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) stable production and supply, and increasing the importance of food security.
style correction market is starting although the short-term market has been adjusted due to the disturbance of risk aversion caused by short-term geographical conflicts and the correction of market liquidity expectations caused by rising inflation expectations, it should be noted that profit changes are still the core variables that determine the operation of the market in the coming months. In such an environment, the boom track leader with large adjustment range in the early stage and high performance fulfillment will usher in a round of restorative market, which we call style correction market. From the perspective of structure, the current focus on the performance, and the prosperity track leaders such as new energy, semiconductor, medicine and military industry that can be determined to be fulfilled are expected to usher in phased repair. On the other hand, actively allocate the necessary consumption sectors highly related to profitability and inflation, including agriculture, food, textile and clothing, light industry, social services, retail, catering, shipping and other industries, which will become the main line throughout the year. In addition, in the market environment of rapid rotation this year, investors with high risk preference can follow the credit cycle and actively participate in the rotation fair of industries with high probability of profit inflection point in the upward stage of the credit cycle, such as construction, building materials, real estate, automobiles, household appliances and media. The theme focuses on the digital economy, the concept of three children, food security, the reform of the comprehensive registration system, etc.
risk tips
Geopolitical conflicts exceeded expectations, Sino US trade frictions exceeded expectations, and the pace of policy promotion was lower than expected.
