In the institutional view, the two sessions released a clear signal of steady growth, and the follow-up policy efforts are expected to continue to increase. For a shares, it is suggested to stick to the main line of steady growth, actively increase positions, and select the segments with high prosperity and expected to exceed expectations in combination with the first quarter report.
major events affecting future investment
government work report proposed that this year's GDP growth target is about 5.5%
Compared with the target of China's GDP growth of more than 6% proposed in the government work report in 2021, the growth target of about 5.5% this year has been lowered, mainly considering the needs of stabilizing employment, ensuring people's livelihood and preventing risks, and connecting with the average economic growth in recent two years and the requirements of the 14th five year plan. In addition, the government work report submitted to the fifth session of the 13th National People's Congress on the 5th proposed to improve the bond financing support mechanism of private enterprises, fully implement the stock issuance registration system, and promote the steady and healthy development of the capital market.
energy consumption intensity target shall be comprehensively assessed within the 14th Five Year Plan period
On the 5th, the government work report submitted to the fifth session of the 13th National People's Congress for deliberation proposed that the energy consumption intensity target should be comprehensively assessed within the 14th Five Year Plan period, with appropriate flexibility, and the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption should not be included in the total energy consumption control; The policy force should be properly advanced, and the reserve policy tools should be used in time to ensure the smooth operation of the economy; Expand the scale of new loans, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically match the nominal economic growth, and keep the macro leverage basically stable.
2 month credit supply is expected to increase year on year
Financial statistics for February will be released soon. In late February, the bill interest rate fell again, and the interest rate of individual term bills was close to zero. Experts believe that the short-term decline of bill interest rate at the end of the month is more common, and the current situation is more likely that banks are making room for subsequent credit. It is expected that credit supply will maintain a year-on-year growth trend in February, and the year-on-year growth rate of broad money is expected to continue to rise.
institutional investment suggestions
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : clearer policy force
From the perspective of China's economy and policies, it is expected that the economic data in the first two months will be stable as a whole, and the steady growth effect will initially appear. The two sessions have clear and clear objectives for the annual economic growth. It is expected that the follow-up policies will continue to increase, and the steady growth will achieve the expected effect this year. For A-Shares themselves, the recent market liquidity is relatively stable, and the pressure is significantly weaker than before and after the Spring Festival. It is suggested to stick to the main line of stable growth, actively increase positions, and continue to layout around the varieties with relatively low fundamental expectations and relatively low valuation.
Anxin Securities: the market does not meet the conditions for systematic decline
At present, the market is at the bottom of the strategy and does not have the conditions for systematic decline. The equity market is less likely to enter a unilateral downward trend, and the structural market is still firm and predictable. In addition, in March, the market will pay more attention to the performance of the first quarter report. The higher than expected profit in the first quarter is still the direction highly recognized by the current market.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) : wait for the first quarterly report
With the expected landing of China's annual economic growth and the determination of the rhythm of the Fed's interest rate hike in March, the overseas environment will become the uncertainty risk most concerned by the market for some time in the future. Once the conflict between Russia and Ukraine slows down, the next expected time node of A-Shares or the upcoming quarterly market. Looking forward to the possible first quarter market in mid and late March, we should pay attention to winning with quality, and select the segments with high prosperity and expected to exceed expectations.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : layout "steady growth" + "small high tech"
The two sessions released clear signals of steady growth, and the valuations of steady growth sectors such as real estate, infrastructure and banking are expected to continue to be repaired. After the decline and rebound of science and technology growth, we need to wait for the verification of more boom and profit signals, and the main line may return in the second quarter. In terms of allocation, on the one hand, the layout benefits from the financial, real estate, petroleum, petrochemical, coal and other sectors with stable growth and expected price rise; On the other hand, we will continue to find targets that meet the characteristics of "small high-tech" from bottom to top in the fields of medicine, computer and so on.
ABC Huili Fund: market sentiment may gradually pick up
The government work report released many positive signals, reflecting the continuous improvement of the demands and determination of stable growth of the policy, and can remain optimistic about the follow-up "wide currency - wide credit" policy. Economic growth is expected to stabilize and pick up in the next quarter or two, and market sentiment will gradually pick up.
GF: periodic geopolitical events will not change the stock market trend
From historical experience, periodic geopolitical events will not change the trend of the stock market determined by its fundamentals. From the perspective of high-frequency data, the prosperity of some growth styles is still in a relatively high position. In the future, the market is expected to return to the fundamental research and judgment. The subdivided industries related to new energy such as photovoltaic, wind power and electric vehicles deserve attention.
Harvest Fund: the capital is expected to be loose in March
In March, the capital level may become loose, and monetary easing is expected to continue to increase. The continued return of residents' deposits and the seasonal increase of fiscal expenditure will supplement the excess reserves, so as to push the capital interest rate back to the downward track.
