At noon today, a rumor about the cancellation of the photovoltaic “whole county promotion” policy issued in the name of Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) analysts was widely circulated in the market. Affected by this, the photovoltaic, power equipment and green power sectors of A-Shares plunged rapidly in nearly half an hour of opening in the afternoon.
In view of the market changes in the covered sectors, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) , China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) and other power new energy industry analysts of securities companies quickly released targeted views and countered the rumors.
Although after a round of rapid diving, the final decline of photovoltaic, power equipment and green power sectors narrowed. However, as of the close of the day, there was still a more obvious correction in these industries. Among the 109 CITIC secondary industry indexes, the decline of the electrical equipment industry ranked fifth, and the leaders of the power equipment industry such as Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) once fell by the limit.
In this regard, the reporter of the daily economic news asked Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) for confirmation this afternoon. Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pointed out in the subsequent interview reply to the reporter, “at present, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) has paid attention to the rumors about distribution network investment widely spread in the market. This view is not the view of Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) Research Institute.”
A photovoltaic industry rumor disturbed the market
This afternoon, a network rumor once triggered a collective correction in the market, while the photovoltaic, power equipment and green power sectors played a leading role.
Screenshot from: choice data
Among the 109 CITIC secondary industry indexes, the electrical equipment industry index fell by more than 3% within half an hour after the market opened this afternoon. The share prices of Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) and other leaders in the electrical equipment industry plunged sharply, and both hit the limit.
Pictures from the Internet
The reporter noted that there are several versions of the above Internet rumors circulated this afternoon, but these versions have some common points. For example, they are all released in the name of ” Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) analyst Li Rong”; It is mentioned that the photovoltaic “whole county promotion” policy will no longer be implemented.
This rumor, this afternoon, the reporter asked Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) for confirmation. Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pointed out in the subsequent interview reply to the reporter, “At present, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) has paid attention to the rumors about distribution network investment widely spread in the market. This view is not Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) Institute point of view. Guojin Research Institute believes that the establishment and implementation of green power trading mechanism will greatly improve the investment enthusiasm of operators by effectively improving the rate of return, hedge the operation risk of high cost of investment or purchase of peak shaving capacity, and vigorously promote the rapid development of new energy. ”
In addition, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) also said, ” Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) Research Institute strictly follows the code of practice for publishing securities research reports” The quality control mechanism and compliance review mechanism have been established and improved. All research reports shall be subject to quality audit by full-time quality auditors with securities analyst qualification before release, and compliance audit shall be conducted by full-time personnel. The approved research reports shall be uniformly sent to the contracting objects through the company’s platform. Investors are requested to follow the Research Report uniformly issued by Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) Research Institute. ”
A number of brokerage analysts joined hands to respond to rumors
According to an industry analyst, these market rumors today are related to the two new policies recently released by the national energy administration.
On December 24, the national energy administration once again released the new version of the regulations on the administration of power grid connection operation and the measures for the administration of power auxiliary services after a lapse of 15 years. The new two rules take the auxiliary service market as the starting point to promote the common transformation of source network load and storage, and give play to the supporting role of the auxiliary service market in the transformation of clean and low-carbon energy.
For these two new policies, the relevant research teams of several securities companies have released their analytical views.
Today, the reporter got a summary marked on December 26 this year, presided over by Li Rong, chief analyst of Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) energy utilities, and invited a power expert to interpret the above two rules.
In this summary, Li Rong first shared the market views on electricity and energy. Referring to the “whole county promotion” of photovoltaic, Li Rong said, “the whole county photovoltaic may be delayed in the future. If the whole county photovoltaic is not promoted, the investment on the distribution network side may be reduced. The investment in the distribution network will still be relatively high during the 14th five year plan in the future. For details, it depends on the power planning path of the 14th five year plan.”
However, in the subsequent Q & a session, Li Rong still expects that the power grid investment will increase to a certain extent next year, and the total amount may increase by 2% ~ 3%. And it is expected that the proportion of UHV will be higher in the power grid investment next year.
Throughout, there is no clear statement in this summary that the “whole county promotion” policy of photovoltaic will no longer be implemented. In addition, in the minutes, Li Rong predicted that “the investment in distribution network during the 14th Five Year Plan period will still be relatively high, depending on the power planning path of the 14th five year plan.” Instead of as rumored, distribution network investment will decline by more than 10%.
Some market participants compared this summary with today’s online rumors and said, “it may be that someone took advantage of some vague views of Li Rong and formed more clear views in the rumors after adding fuel and vinegar.”
The reporter noted that in view of the changes in the photovoltaic, power equipment and green power sectors this afternoon, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) , China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) and other new energy industry analysts of securities companies have quickly released targeted views and launched a counterattack against the “rumors”.
For example, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) power new energy team pointed out in its response statement to the rumor that there was no marginal change in the overall idea, development mode, overall rhythm, policy document orientation of distributed photovoltaic development, and that “do not engage in distributed photovoltaic, promote the whole county” was judged to be a rumor.
In addition, the statement also stressed that, “We have always stressed that we should dilute the total amount and pay attention to the structure. The overall national power grid investment in the 14th five year plan is about 2.3 trillion ~ 2.5 trillion, with a comprehensive growth rate of 10% ~ 15%. Distribution network, secondary, digital transformation and DC transmission are the structural focus. Maintaining the view does not change, and it is nonsense to launch the change of power grid investment from distributed.” In the conclusion, the statement frankly stated that “maintain a strong bullish on distributed photovoltaic direction” and “strong bullish on multi grid structured investment transformation”, including Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) and Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) which fell sharply today.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) the new power team also pointed out tit for tat this afternoon that the promotion of the whole county is an incentive policy for distributed photovoltaic by the energy comprehensive department this year. Although it has brought some disputes, the policy has been issued, and there is no probability of complete recovery. The development of PV and distributed PV is a long-term cycle from China to overseas and will last for the next 30 years. There is no need to pay too much attention to the disturbance of short-term policies.
It is worth noting that Su Chen, deputy director of the former Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) Research Institute and chief analyst of the new energy industry, also commented on the above rumors.
He believes that “with regard to distributed photovoltaic, there is no marginal change in the development ideas and pace of the whole county in the near future. The state has issued a number of policies to support the development of new energy, and stressed that the development of distributed photovoltaic should ‘competition is not monopolized and work is not suspended’. We are firmly optimistic about distributed photovoltaic and the promotion of the whole county.”
According to him, “in June, the state released the promotion plan for the whole county, and a total of 676 demonstration counties were reported in September. The total scale of the demonstration counties exceeds 150gw, and it is required to be completed by the end of 2023. According to the conservative completion rate, it can drive the Distributed installation of more than 30GW per year; from January to November, the total installed capacity of household photovoltaic projects was 16.49gw, a year-on-year increase of 62.89%, and the distributed photovoltaic space is broad.”
In addition, he also responded to the statement that the so-called distribution network investment will decline. “Under the background of significant changes in the power structure, the direction of power grid structural investment during the 14th Five Year Plan period is clear, and the distribution network has always been a clear direction to strengthen investment, including distribution network automation, energy-saving transformer promotion, primary and secondary integration, etc.”
It is illegal to use false information to disrupt the market
In response to the above rumors, a new energy industry analyst of a securities firm said in an interview with reporters today, “Although we don’t have a clear source to confirm this rumor, I think it’s a little too radical to say that the policy promoted by the whole county will be completely cancelled without any other adjustment. Although we don’t rule out the possibility of policy adjustment, the overall promotion direction should not brake so quickly.”
Some market participants believe that the reason why today’s rumor will cause such great fluctuations in the market also reflects, to a certain extent, that after two years of continuous sharp rise, the current valuation of photovoltaic and new energy sectors is not low, so any rash will lead to the loosening of chips.
However, in any case, any use of false information to disrupt the market is not allowed by law.
Screenshot from: new securities law
Song Yixin, a lawyer from Shanghai hanlian law firm, told reporters today, “if the so-called analyst’s views quoted in the above rumors are proved to be untrue and there is manipulation, it may be recognized as manipulating the stock price.”
The new securities law implemented from March 2020 has clear provisions on such manipulation of stock prices. Article 55 of the new securities law clearly states that it is prohibited for anyone to manipulate the securities market by the following means to affect or intend to affect the price or volume of securities transactions, including “using false or uncertain material information to induce investors to conduct securities transactions”.
Article 192 also makes it clear that “Whoever manipulates the securities market in violation of the provisions of Article 55 of this Law shall be ordered to dispose of the illegally held securities according to law, confiscate the illegal income and impose a fine of not less than one time but not more than ten times the illegal income; if there are no illegal income or the illegal income is less than 1 million yuan, a fine of not less than 1 million yuan but not more than 10 million yuan shall be imposed.”
Screenshot from: new securities law
In addition, Article 56 of the new securities law stipulates that “any unit or individual is prohibited from fabricating and disseminating false or misleading information to disrupt the securities market.” “Whoever fabricates or disseminates false or misleading information, disturbs the securities market and causes losses to investors shall be liable for compensation according to law.”
Article 193 further states, “Whoever, in violation of the provisions of the first and third paragraphs of Article 56 of this law, fabricates or disseminates false or misleading information and disrupts the securities market shall have his illegal income confiscated and be fined not less than one time but not more than ten times his illegal income; if there are no illegal income or the illegal income is less than 200000 yuan, he shall be fined not less than 200000 yuan but not more than 2 million yuan.”
(Daily Economic News)
