Key investment points; The comprehensive registration system is expected to be implemented within the year, and the shares of public funds increased against the trend in January; The real estate industry ushered in marginal improvement and formed support for the asset side of insurance enterprises; The development mode of the third pillar of the elderly care is “jogging in small steps and overall gradual progress”, and the relevant rules are expected to be issued in the near future.
In terms of securities companies, the comprehensive registration system is expected to be implemented within this year. 1) On March 5, the government work report mentioned that “we will improve the bond financing support mechanism for private enterprises, fully implement the stock issuance registration system, and promote the steady and healthy development of the capital market.” Previously, the regulators have revealed the signal of implementing the comprehensive registration system: the central economic work conference in December 2021 clearly put forward the “comprehensive implementation of the stock issuance registration system”; The CSRC mentioned “promoting the whole market registration system” in the 2022 system working meeting in January and the 37 replies to the motions and proposals of deputies to the National People’s Congress and members of the CPPCC issued in February. The implementation of the comprehensive registration system is directly beneficial to securities companies. From 2019 to 2021, the initial fund-raising scale of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 253.2 billion yuan, 480.6 billion yuan and 542.7 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 84% / + 90% / + 13%. 2) By the end of January, the scale of public funds had increased to 25.87 trillion yuan. The decline in the size of equity funds is mainly affected by the decline in the net value of the fund. Among them, the scale of Equity Fund + hybrid fund was 8.1 trillion yuan, with a chain comparison of – 6.5% and a year-on-year increase of + 16.4%; The scale of non monetary funds was 15.8 trillion yuan, a month on month increase of – 1.6% and a year-on-year increase of + 28.4%. Equity fund shares rose against the trend. By the end of January, the share of stock + hybrid funds had reached 5.9 trillion, with a month on month increase of + 3% and a year-on-year increase of + 37%; The scale share of non monetary funds was 12.8 trillion, a month on month increase of + 4% and a year-on-year increase of + 39%.
In terms of insurance, the asset side of insurance enterprises has ushered in marginal improvement, and the detailed rules of the third pillar of pension are ready to come out. 1) On the asset side, the “government work report” emphasizes that we should adhere to the principle of not speculation in real estate, implement policies for the city, increase new urbanization, and release the marginal improvement signal, which is good for the investment side of Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) and other insurance enterprises with relatively high real estate exposure. 2) The pension development model is “jogging and overall gradual”, and the detailed rules are expected to be issued in the near future. On March 2, Guo Shuqing, chairman of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said that under the condition of preventing risks, the third pillar of pension will gradually develop and grow in accordance with the policy of “jogging in small steps and overall gradual progress” determined by the financial commission of the State Council. At the same time, the government work report clearly puts forward that “we should appropriately improve the basic pension standards for retirees and urban and rural residents… Continue to standardize the development of the third pillar of old-age insurance… Optimize the supply of old-age services in urban and rural areas”. According to the China Securities News, the personal pension system is roughly divided into four layers: personal pension accounts with tax incentives, personal pension bank accounts, asset information systems in line with the policy and sales institutions qualified to sell policy assets. The construction of pension account is expected to further eliminate the barriers between pension products and help residents choose appropriate pension products from their personal needs, which is good for the development of big wealth management industry. Insurance, as an important part of it, will benefit from the development dividend of the industry. 3) In January, the property insurance industry performed well, while the life insurance industry was relatively depressed. According to the data disclosed by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, in January 2022, the original insurance premium income of life insurance and property insurance industry was 801.9 billion yuan and 177.4 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year (comparable caliber) of + 0.04% and + 13.45% respectively. Property insurance benefited from the year-on-year low base of vehicle insurance benchmark premium and achieved good growth. By the end of January 2022, the balance of insurance capital utilization had reached 23.24 trillion yuan, a month on month increase of + 0.07%. Among them, bank deposits, bonds, stocks and securities investment funds accounted for + 0.48pct, + 0.32pct and -0.32pct respectively at the end of December 21.
Investment suggestions: recommend Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , China stock market news, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , and pay attention to China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China property insurance.
Risk tips: market fluctuation risk, credit risk and policy risk
