\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 337 Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) )
It grew steadily in the fourth quarter, and the profit side was partially eroded by the cost
According to the performance express, the company's 2021q4 revenue was 415 million yuan, an increase of 15% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 67 million yuan, with a decrease of 6%; Deduct non RMB 63 million, with a decrease of 9% at the same time.
We believe that the performance is in line with the expectation for the following reasons: 1) the company continuously enriches the product structure based on sweet milk and milk beverage products. It is expected that the sales of new products (mainly fruit and vegetable drinks, milk coffee and coconut milk) will be about 100 million in 2021, increasing the performance; 2) Deeply cultivate the key core market and gradually radiate the surrounding regional markets, accelerate the development of the national market and channel construction, and establish a three-dimensional, stable and unobstructed sales network and service system; 3) The year-on-year decline in profits in the fourth quarter was due to the rise in the price of large packages of raw materials.
Analyze the company from six angles, and the nationalization is accelerating
1) brand side: the company takes "new fresh Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) , naturally fall in love with you" as its brand appeal and concept; Take "young consumer groups and youth leisure, nutrition and convenience" as the brand market positioning; Win the favor of target groups aged 15-35 with sweet taste and excellent quality.
2) product side: take sweet milk as the basic sector to push through the old and bring forth the new. New products such as fruit and vegetable drinks, milk coffee and coconut milk will be launched in 2021. It is expected that the sales of new products of the company will double in 2022.
3) qudaoduan: in the past five years, the proportion of distribution mode revenue has exceeded 95%. Direct selling mainly cooperates with jd.com, tmall, etc.
4) regional expansion: the company takes East China, central China and southwest China as the core areas, sinks through channels and radiates to the surrounding areas. The compound growth rate of emerging regions is obvious, and the compound growth rate of sales in South China, North China, northeast and northwest regions is higher.
5) capacity side: the company has five production bases, including Zhejiang Jinhua, Zhejiang Longyou, Jiangxi Shanggao, Yunnan Qujing and Henan Hebi. In 2021, the production capacity of Hebi will be about 300000 tons. Jiangxi and Longyou will expand the production capacity in phase II. It is expected that the total production capacity of the company will eventually reach 55 Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) 0000 tons, which can meet the national expansion demand of the company in the next 3-5 years.
The price of milk powder in the second half of the year accounts for more than 50% of the total cost of milk powder. The price of raw milk has an obvious upward trend this year, and the price of the company's products may be increased.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic about the continuous large-scale and national expansion of the company's new products. According to the performance express, we slightly adjusted the EPS from 2021 to 2023 to 1.21/1.56/1.94 yuan (the previous values were 1.23/1.55/1.93 yuan respectively), and the current share price corresponding to PE was 30 / 23 / 19 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, epidemic drag on consumption, new product promotion is less than expected, raw materials rise sharply, production capacity is less than expected, single product risk, etc
