2021 is the first year of the 14th five year plan, and a series of policies and plans based on the present and focusing on the future have been issued one after another. This year, the innovation and application of digital technologies such as cloud computing, big data and artificial intelligence accelerated, the digital reform of various industries accelerated, and the wave of intelligence surged. In the secondary market, a number of stocks in related fields have made eye-catching performance, and funds have actively entered the market. Many experts and institutional personages said that under the background of "science and technology power", intelligence will be the core main line of A-share investment in 2022 and even in the next five to ten years. Several main lines such as smart cars, energy Internet, industrial Internet and cloud computing will usher in opportunities in this tide of change.
central and local policies continue to increase the number and intelligence
With the maturity of the new generation of information technology, the wave of intelligence is accelerating. The central economic work conference proposed to enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, start a number of industrial infrastructure reconstruction projects, and stimulate the emergence of a large number of "specialized and new" enterprises. Accelerate the formation of a safe and efficient logistics network with internal and external connectivity. Accelerate digital transformation and promote the upgrading of traditional industries. "The central economic work conference once again emphasized the digital transformation of traditional industries, which is expected to accelerate the transformation of enterprises to digital and intelligent." Xia Qingying, an analyst at Wanlian securities, said.
The reporter found that digitization and intelligence have become a key word of central and local policies this year.
The outline of the 14th five year plan released in March this year proposes to create new advantages of digital economy. Focus on high-end chips, operating systems, key algorithms of artificial intelligence, sensors and other key fields. Build 5g based application scenarios and industrial ecology, and carry out pilot demonstration in key fields such as intelligent transportation, intelligent logistics, intelligent energy and intelligent medical treatment.
On April 14, the Ministry of industry and information technology solicited public opinions on the intelligent manufacturing development plan of the 14th five year plan. The exposure draft proposes that by 2025, manufacturing enterprises above Designated Size will basically popularize digitization, and key enterprises in key industries will initially realize intelligent transformation; By 2035, manufacturing enterprises above Designated Size will fully popularize digitization, and backbone enterprises will basically realize intelligent transformation.
On November 30, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the development plan of software and information technology service industry in the 14th five year plan and the development plan of deep integration of informatization and industrialization in the 14th five year plan, which proposed to cultivate new intelligent products such as industrial intelligent hardware, intelligent Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , intelligent networked vehicles, intelligent ships, unmanned machines, intelligent wearable devices and smart homes. Develop scenario applications based on intelligent products and accelerate the application and promotion of intelligent products in many key industries. In the same month, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other four departments also jointly issued the notice on carrying out the pilot demonstration action of Intelligent Manufacturing in 2021.
At the local level, the development plan of Beijing's high-end and sophisticated industries during the 14th Five Year Plan period was recently released, which proposed to promote the industry to "change the core, strengthen the core, endow wisdom and integrate"; The intelligent manufacturing development plan of Jiangxi Province in the 14th five year plan proposes to promote equipment networking and digital connection of production links in many fields, so as to improve the intelligent level of enterprises.
"If we summarize the past decade with 'digital transformation and digital economy', China will usher in a wave of intelligence in the next decade." Bao fan, founder and CEO of Huaxing capital group, said at the Wuzhen summit of this year's World Internet Conference. He said that under the new technology cycle, multi-level full link technologies such as chips, hardware, computing power, systems and software continue to develop and innovate, and the era of intelligent economy is coming. In the next decade, the biggest structural opportunity for China's economic development is the wide application of intelligent technology in the national economy. The development of new technologies represented by artificial intelligence, big data and 5g will enable economic growth. Relevant innovations will be reflected in five areas, namely, intelligent consumption, intelligent industry, intelligent health, Enterprise Service SaaS (software as a service) and intelligent technology.
"As the key to building a new engine of high-quality development at the macroeconomic level and shaping long-term competitiveness at the enterprise level, intelligence will be the main investment line and long-term focus area in the next few years." Wu Zhao, partner of Roland Berger, told the reporter of Economic Information Daily that intelligence covers a wide range. It not only includes the innovation of products such as "smart car" and "smart home", but also includes the upgrading of traditional industrial chain modes such as "intelligent manufacturing" and "intelligent supply chain" under the power of new technology and new data, At the same time, it also involves the concept of enterprise digital platform and intelligent transformation.
Sun can, chief analyst of Chuancai securities manufacturing industry, also said that the intelligence of manufacturing products is the inevitable direction of manufacturing upgrading under China's digital economy development strategy. "I believe that intelligence is the core main line of A-share investment in 2022 and even the next five years".
prosperity in related fields is rising
From the performance of A-share listed companies this year, intelligence related fields are commendable.
In terms of performance, the data show that, as of the press time of December 24, among the 84 companies with expected performance in 2021, companies in intelligent related industries such as electronics, software, mechanical equipment manufacturing and automobile manufacturing accounted for more than 40%. Among them, Goertek Inc(002241) is expected to have a full year net profit of 4.244 billion yuan to 4.528 billion yuan in 2021, with the highest profitability. Among the companies whose performance is expected to double, semiconductor enterprise Dongxin Co., Ltd. leads with an increase of 1051.89% to 1128.68%, software service provider Jiahe Meikang expects the annual net profit to increase by 233.88% to 327.92%, and micro inverter leader Hemai Co., Ltd. expects the net profit to increase by 73% to 102%.
In terms of secondary market performance, the cumulative increases of energy Internet, smart car, smart manufacturing, smart wear and Jiangsu Nonghua Intelligent Agriculture Technology Co.Ltd(000816) index during the year were 79.18%, 36.28%, 19.10%, 20.63% and 35.46% respectively, far outperforming Shanghai Composite Index (4.17%) and Shenzhen Composite Index (1.66%). This year's popular concepts such as chip, Hongmeng concept, digital RMB and Yuan universe are closely related to intelligence.
The reporter found that among the 305 stocks whose share prices doubled during the year (excluding new shares listed this year), doubled stocks in intelligent related industries piled up, and doubled stocks in high-end manufacturing, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, smart car, Internet of things, chip manufacturing, smart grid and other intelligent related fields accounted for more than 40%. Among them, semiconductor leading enterprises Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) increased by more than 300% in the year, and car enterprises Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) , high-end equipment enterprises Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) and smart grid concept stocks Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) increased by more than 250%.
Capital has also accelerated into intelligent related tracks. Wu Zhao said that the investment and financing performance of China's intelligent industry this year is relatively active. Taking Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) track as an example, the number of financing cases and amount of financing have recovered rapidly this year, covering different segments such as industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , AMR / AGV (autonomous mobile Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) / automatic guided transport vehicle), commercial service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) . Smart car track, the core parts of high-order automatic driving, such as on-board high-power chips and lidar, software and algorithm technology enterprises, robotaxi solution providers and other different fields are favored by capital. He believes that the investment and financing heat around the intelligent industry is expected to continue.
Enterprise survey data show that in 2021, the registration of smart car related enterprises increased by 44.1% year-on-year, and the financing events related to smart cars increased by 93.3% year-on-year; The registration of intelligent manufacturing related enterprises increased by 71.8% year-on-year, and the financing events increased by 8.2% year-on-year; The registration of artificial intelligence related enterprises increased by 90.9% year-on-year, and the financing events increased by 35.0% year-on-year.
The prosperity of intelligent related fields is rising, and the number of employed workers is increasing. According to the latest report released by pulse, according to the month on month growth rate of job supply, in 2021, the growth rates of new energy power generation, new energy vehicles and intelligent manufacturing industries were the fastest, with the growth rates of 451%, 365% and 352% respectively, and the growth rates of new financial technology, artificial intelligence and electronics were 190%, 186% and 181% respectively.
in the tide of change, many main lines have explosive potential
Many institutions and experts believe that smart cars, energy Internet, industrial Internet, cloud computing and other main lines will usher in opportunities in the tide of intelligent change.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) pointed out that it is expected that more policies will be implemented in 2022 to promote the deepening integration of digital economy and real economy. Intelligence will be a major investment in the computer industry. "Represented by smart cars and smart energy, both belong to emerging tracks that have grown up in recent years. There is no obvious gap in technology between China and overseas. They are an important thrust to realize overtaking in curves. Due to the easy perception of the results, the marginal improvement of prosperity is the most obvious, and they have high explosive potential." Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) the computer research team said. Sun can also said that the main line of intelligent investment in 2022 can focus on industrial Internet, smart grid, Internet of vehicles and Internet of things.
The high vision of intelligent vehicles has been verified this year, and the software definition of vehicles has also become an industry consensus. Wu Zhao believes that intelligence will be the focus of competition in the automotive industry in the next decade. It is expected that in 2022, with the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of intelligent electric vehicles, combined with the word-of-mouth communication after consumers' intelligent experience, intelligent electric vehicles will usher in a new round of outbreak. Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) said that in 2030, the market space of China's intelligent networked vehicles will exceed one trillion yuan, and the annual compound growth rate is expected to reach 26.22%.
In terms of specific tracks, Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) said that the commercialization of intelligent cockpit will take the lead in 2022. According to the data of IHS, it is expected that the scale of China's intelligent cockpit market will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025, and the development is much faster than overseas. Automatic driving will also develop rapidly. A number of models equipped with L3 + function will gradually land in 2022, and the industry will usher in a new round of outbreak cycle. Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) believes that in the field of intelligent networked vehicles, high-power chips and lidar will become the trend. It is suggested to pay attention to the market opportunity of upgrading the software and hardware architecture in the vehicle.
Under the background of the "double carbon" policy and the vigorous development of new energy industry, the energy Internet system has ushered in major development opportunities. According to the general report of the national intelligent planning released by the State Grid Corporation of China, the total planned investment in the three stages of the power grid is 551 billion yuan (2009-2010), 150 billion yuan (2011-2015) and 1400 billion yuan (2016-2020), of which the proportion of intelligent investment is 6.19%, 11.67% and 12.5% respectively, showing a rising trend. The power grid development plan of China Southern Power Grid in the 14th five year plan issued by China Southern Power Grid Corporation also puts forward that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, China Southern Power Grid will plan to invest about 670 billion yuan in power grid construction, so as to speed up the construction of digital power grid and the process of modernization of power grid.
Galaxy Securities pointed out that the energy Internet system will bring huge incremental links and incremental space, including the construction needs of energy storage (energy storage system), microgrid and virtual power plant in the distributed structure of the energy system, the growth of intelligent sensing, platform and terminal applications of the Internet of things in the construction of digital power grid, and the growth of smart power operation, maintenance and monitoring, Development of energy management services, urban charging stations, smart parks and other operation services. Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that under the background of "double carbon", the information transformation of the energy industry will become the key construction content in China's 14th Five Year Plan period, and the related companies of the energy information track are expected to obtain greater growth space.
In terms of industrial Internet, Wanlian Securities believes that with the continuous deepening of China's economic digital transformation, the development trend of industrialization and information integration of various industries is becoming more and more obvious. Enabling the manufacturing industry to realize intelligent manufacturing by information technology will be a long-term task in the next few years. Driven by the policy, the improvement of industrial Internet infrastructure is expected to accelerate and establish the foundation for the large-scale implementation of industrial applications. Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) believes that policy promotion superimposes endogenous demand, and it is expected that the penetration rate of industrial software will continue to increase next year.
In terms of cloud computing, according to iResearch consulting, China's cloud computing scale will still maintain a high growth rate of 45% in 2022. Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) said that cloud computing is the main line of growth in the next ten years. In particular, China's cloud computing industry is developing rapidly. It is expected that the growth rate in the next three years will reach 32.6%, far exceeding the global growth rate of 16.9%. Compared with the traditional one-time payment, SaaS is undoubtedly a better business model and the main line of long-term growth in the future.
At the same time, experts remind investors to be rational about intelligent related investment. GUI Haoming, chief market expert, said that investors need to pay attention to intelligence, but don't follow blindly. Fu Lichun, an economist and founding partner of Yuntai capital, said that the further upgrading of the information revolution is the intelligent revolution, which is a general trend and has a very broad prospect. It has potential both from the perspective of industry and investment, but we should also beware of some enterprises hyping concepts with intelligent gimmicks.
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(economic information daily)
