\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 345 Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) )
Event: the company announced that it plans to invest a total of about 1 billion yuan to carry out the production and processing project of prefabricated vegetables in Honghu, Hubei Province.
Actively arrange the field of prefabricated vegetables and improve the scale of production capacity: the company announced that the investment in Anjing accounts for 90%. The project is expected to cover an area of about 233 mu (subject to the actual measurement), and the new plant is 150000 square meters. It is expected to be constructed in two phases. The construction period of each phase is expected to be about 24 months respectively, and the production capacity will be reached within three years after the two phases are put into operation.
Increase the proportion of self production and consolidate the position of the industry. Fully relying on the local advantages, the project focuses on the development of aquatic prefabricated dishes, including new workshops for seasoning crayfish, split fish, pickled fish, grilled fish and other aquatic products, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) deep processing workshops for lotus root and other meat and poultry dishes and supporting workshops, forming a strategic echo with the original central China production base and its subsidiary XINHONGYE. The project complies with the company's business strategy of "combining two swords and advancing in three ways" and the business model of "self production + supply chain labeling + M & a" of prefabricated dishes. In the future, the production capacity of prefabricated dishes is expected to be expanded, the proportion of self-produced products is expected to be further improved, and the profitability is expected to be enhanced, helping the company improve its industry position in the field of prefabricated dishes, Create a "second curve" for the company's growth.
The company operates steadily and the transmission of price increase is smooth. In terms of cost, the cost of surimi and chicken of the company is relatively stable. It is expected that the pork inventory purchased at high cost in the early stage has been basically digested, and the impact has been reduced. Oil and soybean protein remain high and volatile, but the price increase policy is expected to alleviate the cost pressure to a certain extent; From the perspective of sales, according to the recent channel research, the overall price increase transmission of the company is relatively smooth, the dynamic sales situation in February improved month on month, the sales of prefabricated dishes and gift boxes are good, and the feedback of small packaging and other product terminals is positive.
Profit forecast: adjust the previous profit forecast. If the impact of fixed growth is not considered, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 9.21/11.87/14.28 billion from 2021 to 2023, a year-on-year 32.2% / 28.9% / 20.3%, and a net profit of 700 / 9.0/1.25 billion yuan (previously 700 / 9.6/1.29 billion yuan), a year-on-year 16.3% / 28.5% / 38.1%. At present, the corresponding valuation of the stock price is 40.5/31.5/22.8x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: production capacity construction is less than expected, costs continue to rise, market competition intensifies, food safety and new product promotion are less than expected
