\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 96 Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) )
Event:
The company announced its 2021 annual report: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 4.127 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.04%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 647 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.96%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 576 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 57.29%.
The company announced the fixed increase plan for 2022: the company plans to issue no more than 85.01 million A-share shares to no more than 35 qualified investors, and plans to raise no more than 3.1 billion yuan.
Comments:
1. Q4 single quarter revenue accelerated. We expect that the high growth of revenue end in 22 years is a high probability event
The company's single quarter revenue in 2021q4 was 1.455 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.03%; The profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 197 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.00%. The company's Q4 single quarter revenue accelerated growth, which is expected to be mainly related to the acceleration of mobile phone and IOT business. In terms of the whole year, the company's intelligent software business revenue in 2021 was 1.631 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.33%; The intelligent Internet connected vehicle business achieved a revenue of 1.224 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.91%; The revenue of intelligent Internet of things business was 1.272 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 82.87%. Considering the continued prosperity of the three major businesses including automobile, we expect that the high growth of revenue of 45% + in 22 years is a high probability event.
2. Short term pressure on gross profit margin and cash flow due to business structure and exchange rate fluctuations
In 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 39.40%, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.82pct. We believe that the decline of gross profit margin and cash flow pressure are mainly due to short-term disturbances such as changes in revenue structure and exchange rate fluctuations. Benefiting from the scale of new businesses including IOT, looking forward to 22-23 years, we believe that the quality of the company's statements is expected to continue to improve. Meanwhile, the company plans to raise an additional 3.1 billion yuan to invest in four projects: vehicle operating system, edge computing station, extended reality (XR) and distributed computing network technology, with an investment of 1.005 billion yuan, 1.794 billion yuan, 759 million yuan and 290 million yuan respectively, and supplement the working capital of 900 million yuan.
3. The cockpit and cockpit are deeply integrated, and IOT opens the third growth curve
On the basis of consolidating the advantages in the cockpit field, the company expanded the business related to autopilot, integrated the low-speed autopilot function with the cockpit, and laid out the intelligent driving platform in the whole field of high-speed autopilot. In November 2021, the company registered the intelligent driving platform company, holding 95%. In addition to automobiles, the company's proposed capital increase is mainly invested in IOT, such as edge computing and other fields. We are optimistic about the opening of the company's third growth curve.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we are optimistic about the prosperity of the smart car and Internet of things industries, as well as the company's ability to accumulate and industrialize underlying technologies based on the operating system. Combined with the performance of 2021, we adjusted the company's revenue forecast for 2022 / 2023 from 5.371/7.305 billion yuan to 5.984/8 billion yuan, and the revenue in 2024 is expected to be 10.502 billion yuan; The net profit forecast for 2022 / 2023 is adjusted from 961 / 1321 million yuan to 954 / 1332 million yuan. The net profit in 2024 is expected to be 1.788 billion yuan. The net profit from 20222024 corresponds to 46.95/33.62/25.05 times of the current share price PE respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the development of intelligent industry is not as expected; The company's business progress in the field of automatic driving is less than expected; The company's performance is lower than expected; Fixed increment has uncertainty.
