Last week, the A-share market reappeared and adjusted. For the high boom track stocks, the capital differences increased, especially the lithium battery sector underwent a significant adjustment, and the capital flows to the low-level stagflation sector represented by consumption and infrastructure.

This week, A-Shares ushered in the last five trading days of 2021. Institutional analysis believes that the reason for the recent market adjustment lies in the rebalancing of the positions of the Baotuan plate at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. In the short term, the market is still in the window period of structural optimization. In January next year, "spring agitation" is expected to open a new round of rising market.

structure switching at the end of the year and the beginning of the year

Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) the strategy team believes that at present, the market is in the superposition period of performance vacuum and repeated epidemic. In this case, the original mainstream track valuation has been very full, and there are no new hot plates. Therefore, the market as a whole is in a weak shock pattern, and the industry rotation is accelerated.

For the end of the weak shock period, Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) believes that the market is expected to start a new round of rise in the first quarter of next year, stimulated by the updated performance outlook. Before that, funds will participate in the market in the way of theme speculation and plate rotation.

Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) the strategy team also believes that the key driver of the recent market adjustment is not system risk, but structural switching. From the perspective of one to two weeks, the market is still in the window period of group rebalancing and structural optimization. After the rebalancing of Baotuan plate, it is expected that the market will enter the restless window period in spring from mid to late January.

The China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) strategy team said that although the recent performance of the market is slightly depressed, there is no need to be too pessimistic. From historical experience, the market tends to gradually turn positive when more clear policies are implemented or forward-looking indicators are significantly improved. China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the "steady growth" policy is expected to be implemented gradually in the future. In the medium term, the cycle of domestic and foreign growth and policy will be reversed again in 2022, and structural trends such as valuation, liquidity and industrial upgrading are expected to support market performance.

blue chip market or getting better

In terms of market style, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the short-term performance of track growth stocks may be restrained due to large increase, high valuation and expectation and heavy overall institutional positions. The fields related to the "steady growth" policy may continue to show relative toughness, and the market is still expected to show the style characteristics of "big strength and small weakness"; After the growth expectation gradually stabilizes and the "steady growth" transaction cools down, the market may return to the growth style. It is roughly estimated that the time point will be 3 to 6 months later.

The Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) strategy team said that at the end of the year, the market game will intensify, the "high cut low" transaction will enter the midfield, and the high-quality blue chip will be better and better in the beginning of the year.

First of all, the relay of the "steady growth" policy is under way, and it still takes time to form a joint force. It is expected that the data in the fourth quarter will show an obvious trend of China's economic repair. The data in the first quarter of next year will fully reflect the effect of the policy joint force, and market confidence will be repaired quickly.

Secondly, at the end of the year, both the admission of incremental funds and the position adjustment of stock funds will reflect the characteristics of water flowing to the low, "cutting high to low" is still the trading direction with the least resistance, and the cross-year market style is still obviously biased towards the repair of the market and low-level blue chips.

Finally, the "good start" of bank credit at the beginning of the year may exceed expectations, which will confirm the trend of credit cycle repair; New public offerings may make the market more liquid.

future strategy

Eight institutions on the market: the game intensifies at the end of the year, and blue chip is getting better

Securities companies: in 2022, A-Shares will play the role of "high-quality development bull", highlighting the opportunities of small cap stocks

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(Shanghai Securities News)