\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 96 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) )
In 2022q1, the performance of payment collection and movable sales was brilliant, the inventory in the province returned to a low level, and the performance growth in the first quarter was highly deterministic. According to the feedback of channel research, the company's sales task was completed well in 2021. At the end of the year, the company took the initiative to control the goods. Under the background of low inventory, the dealers made a good start and paid actively. The proportion of Spring Festival payment collection in some advantageous areas in the province exceeded 60%, significantly higher than that in the same period last year, and the proportion of delivery reached 89%. From the perspective of terminal dynamic sales, the Spring Festival epidemic prevention policy in Anhui Province is reasonable and appropriate. The relatively improved local new year policy makes the population return. The scene of family and friends visiting and gathering in the Spring Festival is basically restored, and the demand for gifts and family banquets has increased. Dealers and terminal stores generally feedback that the growth rate of dynamic sales in the Spring Festival is 20% +. In 2022q1, Gujing's payment collection, delivery and movable sales were booming, and the inventory in the province returned to a low level, with high growth certainty in the first quarter.
The improvement of product structure is accelerated, the secondary high-end continues to release the potential energy of the brand, and the sales of products at all prices during the Spring Festival in 2022 are generally good. 20202021 years, the company sales were greatly affected by the epidemic. In the second half of 2021, due to the good recovery situation in Anhui, the public and secondary Baijiu consumption scenes revival. Gujing completed the annual sales task ahead of the Mid Autumn Festival in 2021. After entering the 2021Q4, the main task was to digest the inventory. According to our channel research, in 2021, the product structure of Gujing Province, especially Hefei market, will accelerate the upgrading. It is expected that gu8 will increase in double digits throughout the year, gu16 will increase by more than 50%, more than 20 markets in gu8 will double, and the volume of secondary high-end products above gu8 will significantly improve the company's product structure. At the same time, during the Spring Festival, in addition to the continuation of secondary high-end high potential energy, gifts and gu5 mobile sales have improved significantly, showing a comprehensive prosperity trend.
Investment suggestion: we believe that under the multiple high certainty logic of expansion outside the province, upgrading within the province and large quantity of single products, the company is expected to have a better performance in 2022. On the basis of relatively certain concentration improvement + consumption upgrading, the company is expected to achieve the revenue target of 20 billion in the 14th five year plan. We expect the company's EPS to be 4.60/6.10/7.60 yuan from 2021 to 2023, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the progress and effect of national reform are less than expected, the structural upgrading is less than expected, and the competition inside and outside the province is intensified.
