Daily data tracking
Three major indexes: the Shanghai index fell 0.69%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 1.03% and the gem index fell 2.27%
Shenwanyi plate: commercial trade, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery plate rose; Electrical equipment, nonferrous metals and steel
Concept plate: the concept of anti-cancer, food processing and generic drugs rose; Rare earth, lithium ore, UHV
Turnover and northbound funds: the turnover of the two cities was about 1131.8 billion yuan, an increase over the previous trading day; Land stock connect suspended trading today
Hotspot tracking: disk analysis
On Friday, A-Shares opened high and went low. The gem index fell more than 2% and fell to 3300 points. On the disk, most sectors fell, the leading power battery fell sharply, driving the collective correction of high boom tracks such as new energy, and the large consumption sector rose against the market. We believe that the cross year market will move forward in fluctuation and the operation center will gradually improve. From a long-term perspective, we judge that the opportunity in the second half of the year will be better than that in the first half of the year based on liquidity and the expected rhythm of policies. The transition from the cross-year market to the shock will be flat, and then rise again under the stimulation of steady growth, showing an “n” trend with a slowing slope. In the downward stage of the economic cycle, the allocation focus of A-Shares will gradually tilt to the “middle and lower reaches”, and the narrowing of the ppi-cpi scissors gap will bring about the profit recovery market of “big consumption” + “high-end manufacturing”.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, after falling below the integer mark of 23000 points on Monday, they showed a bottom rebound trend, but at the same time, the rebound was accompanied by a significant reduction in trading volume. On the eve of Christmas holiday, the willingness of capital participation was significantly weakened. We expect the short-term index to fluctuate weakly in the case of insufficient incremental funds, but at the same time, with the full digestion of US stocks’ expectation of interest rate increase, The pessimistic expectation of overseas liquidity is expected to be repaired, and the repressive factors of Hong Kong stock liquidity are expected to be alleviated, resulting in stabilization at the index level. At present, the P / E ratio of Hong Kong stocks is only 10.6 times, and the southward capital has maintained a net inflow of more than 10 billion for three consecutive weeks. We believe that the “value depression” of Hong Kong stocks is prominent in the long run. It is recommended to select high-quality core assets with alpha attribute and upward undervalued stocks.
Hot spot tracking: Comments on new energy vehicles
According to the notice, the four ministries and commissions take the gradual decline of subsidies as the principle, and the subsidy standards from 2020 to 2022 will decline by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year. According to the standard that the subsidy standard in 2022 will decline by another 30% on the basis of 2021, the subsidy amount will be reduced by 3888 yuan for pure electric passenger vehicles with a range of 300 (including) ~ 400km; 5400 yuan for pure electric passenger vehicles with a range of more than 400km; and 1920 yuan for plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles (including add-on programs).
From the perspective of auto enterprises, at present, most auto enterprises have not officially announced the price increase. Whether it will have a direct impact on the price of new energy vehicles in the future still needs to be further observed.
From the current point of view, it is a more achievable path to deal with the decline pressure of raw material costs and subsidies through the rise of terminal prices, but at the same time, it is also necessary to further comprehensively measure the acceptance of downstream terminals, the bargaining power of auto enterprises themselves and the impact of expected sales volume that may be brought about. Therefore, we expect that there is little probability that the price of new energy vehicles will rise significantly due to the decline of subsidies in 2022.
From 2020 to 2022, the subsidy standard declined by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively from the previous year, but the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2020 was 1.37 million, with a year-on-year increase of 13.38%. From January to November 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 2.99 million, with a year-on-year increase of 169.55%. It can be seen that the current development of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry has entered the development period from the cultivation period to the demand-oriented stage, According to the prediction of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 5 million next year, and the growth rate is expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 50%. We believe that the decline of subsidies will have a limited impact on the sales of new energy vehicles, and the large volume on the demand side will be the main driving factor.
From the economic perspective, in the downward stage of the economic cycle next year, the policy is expected to support and protect economic growth, boost domestic demand and promote consumption, which is conducive to steady economic growth. As the bulk of consumer goods above the quota, the policy is expected to maintain positive expectations next year.
We believe that in 2022, the automobile industry will continue to be resonated by demand, supply and policy, and we are optimistic about the long-term development of the industry. New energy vehicles are expected to maintain high penetration and high growth rate. According to the calculation of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be 5 million, with a penetration rate of more than 18% and a growth rate of more than 50%. The strong demand in the downstream will bring deterministic growth in the performance of midstream battery enterprises, adding that some Longtou battery enterprises will have the pressure of transmitting cost to the downstream next year, The profit side is expected to be repaired and enjoy the profit elasticity of high growth in the industry. We are still optimistic about the development of the midstream power battery industry and the links with strong profit retention capacity. At present, the P / E ratio of Shenwan lithium battery index is close to 120 times, which is at the quantile level of 82% in recent five years. The overvalued value has further amplified the overall volatility. It is expected to return to a reasonable range after the valuation switch next year.
Risk tip: the stock market is risky and investment should be cautious
