The latest tracking of airport, aviation, duty-free and hotel sectors in the fourth week of December.
Key investment points
Market review of transportation service sector this week
1) Shenwan level industries (31): this week, the transportation and social service industries increased by + 0.59% and – 0.03% respectively, ranking 9th and 13th respectively; the CSI 300 index increased by – 0.67%. 2) Shenwan level II industries (134): the cumulative growth of hotel catering, airport, tourism and scenic spot and tourism retail this week was + 3.8%, + 0.7%, + 0.5% and + 0.0% respectively, ranking 11th, 41st, 45th and 60th respectively.
Covid-19 epidemic tracking
Diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia: from December 18 to December 24, 1) China: 408 local confirmed cases (444 last week) have been reported, mainly in Shaanxi Province (Xi’an, Yan’an and Xianyang) and Zhejiang Province (Ningbo, Shaoxing and Hangzhou); as of 15:00 on December 25, there were 154 medium and high-risk areas in China, including 12 high-risk areas and 142 medium risk areas. 2) globally, there were about 5.18 million newly diagnosed cases of covid-19 pneumonia, a month on month increase of + 15.6%; there were 44759 new deaths, a month on month increase of – 8.5%. 3) the United States: there were about 1.38 million newly diagnosed cases, a month on month increase of 52% There were 9417 new deaths, an increase of 0.3% month on month. 4) UK: about 700000 new cases were diagnosed, an increase of 49% month on month; There were 815 new deaths, up 2% month on month.
Covid-19 vaccination: 1) China: as of December 24, China has reported nearly 2.75 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine; At the same time, the third needle was introduced throughout the country to strengthen needle vaccination. About 12.01 million doses of covid-19 vaccine were vaccinated every day from December 17 to December 24, with a month on month increase of 20%. 2) Global: as of December 24, the world had received more than 8.9 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine, and 57.3% of the world’s population had received at least one dose of vaccine.
According to financial reports, Pfizer covid-19 oral drug paxlovid and MSD covid-19 oral drug molnupiravir have been authorized for emergency use in the United States.
According to the Macao business daily, ou Yangyu, director of Macao’s social and cultural department, said in an interview with local media that when the mainland and Hong Kong relax customs clearance, Macao is expected to pass customs with Hong Kong at the same time.
Airport & aviation: local epidemic affects travel
1) Industry: according to the vertical and horizontal data of air travel, from December 20 to December 24, the daily average number of flights executed by China and international routes was about 8796, up 0.7% from last week.
2) Secretary for aviation: from December 20 to December 24, according to the flight standard data, the average daily flight numbers of Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Chunqiu, Jixiang and Huaxia were 758, 1426, 1246, 344, 253 and 137 respectively, with a month on week average of 2.7%, 5.4%, – 3.6%, 15.4%, 14.1% and – 3.3% respectively.
3) Airport: from December 20 to December 24, according to the data of flight standards, the daily average take-off and landing sorties of Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai Hongqiao, capital airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) and Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) were 246, 296, 297, 313 and 367 respectively, 26.7%, 9.5%, – 0.9%, – 6.9% and – 6.3% respectively.
Tax exemption: the passenger volume of Haikou airport was + 7.5% month on month, and the tax exemption discount on outlying islands was the same
1) Hainan flight volume tracking: from December 18 to December 24, the average daily inbound and outbound flights of Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan International Airport were 341 and 377 respectively, a decrease of 1% and 5% respectively compared with last week; In the same period, the average daily passenger volume of Haikou Airport (expected) was 48538, an increase of 7.5% month on month
2) Tax free channel discount tracking: on Sunday, the discount intensity of direct mail increased slightly month on month, and the discount intensity of outlying island tax-free channels (China free outlying island tax-free, sea travel investment, sea development control and China export service) was basically the same month on month.
Hotel Information Review
1) Baidu map reached a strategic cooperation with Huazhu group, and the first batch of access to more than 7300 hotels under Huazhu. The two sides will work together to create a new model of positional hotel reservation cooperation and jointly build a new hotel direct sales channel.
2) Hanting established zebra Tesco to overweight e-commerce business.
Investment advice
1) Recommendation Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the current valuation has the configuration cost performance, and the marginal travel demand in China is upward. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has signed a contract with LV, which is still expected to usher in catalysis in the near future, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
2) Three major airlines are recommended: domestic covid-19 oral specific drugs have been approved for listing, the dawn of international flight recovery may be present, and the company will show greater profit flexibility in the recovery stage.
3) Recommendation Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) : China’s transportation capacity accounts for a large proportion, and its performance is the first to recover. Before the opening of the door, its profit performance is more stable and has high long-term growth.
4) It is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : the scale advantage is obvious, the management is significantly improved, the overseas recovery is accelerated, and it is expected to usher in a period of high-speed growth.
5) Recommendation Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : leading industry of chain hotel group β， The light management mode opens up the incremental space of the sinking market, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) under the three-year goal of ten thousand stores, the number of hotels opened in 21-23 years is expected to reach 30%.
6) Recommendation China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : under the comprehensive layout of outlying islands + online + Airport + city, the company still has great growth space. The tax-free rent negotiation of the capital airport landed last year, and the opening of Meilan Airport Phase II duty-free store is expected to catalyze the company’s performance.
Risk statement
The epidemic recovery was less than expected, the industry demand was less than expected, the oil price and exchange rate fluctuated sharply, the tax-free policy changed, and the competition in the tax-free industry intensified.
