Market view: the steady growth policy is constantly confirmed and the cross year market will be carried out to the end
The policy of stabilizing economic growth has been continuously confirmed. In December, the economy is expected to stabilize weakly. In addition to paying attention to the role of structure, the monetary policy also puts forward the total amount adjustment. The total amount easing has been further confirmed, and the cross-year market is expected to continue. At the industry level, the recent growth style has been adjusted, which is related to the prominent tone of stable growth after the economic work conference and the switching of investors to the direction of stable growth. However, we believe that the growth style is still the most flexible in the face of stable growth with loose aggregate. Therefore, adhering to the positive comprehensive allocation idea, growth can continue to be firmly held. Power system transformation and construction related to stable growth The configuration of building materials can be increased, the consumption should pay due attention to the price rise line, and the finance should pay attention to the phased opportunities of securities companies and real estate.
In terms of risk appetite, the policy actively boosted the cross year market. Recently, different departments have successively introduced measures to stabilize industrial growth, and the economic stabilization policy has been continuously confirmed. For example, the tone of promoting consumption has been significant in the recent week. On the one hand, the Ministry of industry and information technology said that it would fully launch the urban pilot of comprehensive electrification of vehicles in the public domain in 2022, start the rural activities of new energy vehicles and green smart appliances, support the development of smart cars and improve people’s lives. On the other hand, the national development and Reform Commission said that it would soon issue a strategic outline for expanding domestic demand. In addition, there is no need to worry about the point concentrated outbreak of the epidemic.
In terms of liquidity, the regular monetary policy meeting in the fourth quarter emphasized the combination of cross cycle and counter cycle, paid equal attention to both aggregate and structure, and fully confirmed the loose tone of aggregate. On the 20th, only the one-year LPR interest rate was lowered in order to stimulate the financing demand of the real economy, indicating that the monetary policy is overweight in terms of structure. In the face of the requirements of monetary aggregate adjustment, aggregate easing is expected to usher in. At the micro liquidity level, the “fake going north” did not change the enthusiasm of foreign capital allocation, and the reverse repurchase 14 was launched and supported. In the follow-up, we should pay attention to the changes in the amount of reverse repurchase in the next year.
Industry configuration: the cross year market is still in the process, and adhere to the idea of positive configuration
When the cross year market is still in progress, the allocation is comprehensive and positive, and stick to the growth direction. Despite the overall weakness of lithium batteries in the boom track and some concerns in the market, we believe that the main reason is that some investors switched to the field of stable growth after the central economic work conference. However, we believe that the primary premise of stable growth is loose liquidity, and the signal of total easing is basically confirmed at the regular meeting in the fourth quarter of monetary policy. Therefore, under the background of loose liquidity, The growth style is more flexible and is expected to further usher in the improvement of valuation. Therefore, we should continue to adhere to the positive and comprehensive allocation idea. First, stick to the main line of growth. In the short term, at the stage of lithium battery adjustment, we should focus on the segments with economic advantages within the track, especially the ones that are expected to be large. Driven by the economy and policies in the medium and long term, the new energy vehicle, photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen energy, energy storage and semiconductor industry chain are still important allocation directions; The second is the main line of power system transformation and new construction related to steady growth, as well as infrastructure construction related to policies and building materials; Third, in terms of consumption, it mainly focuses on food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery; Fourth, the financial direction mainly focuses on securities companies and real estate. Securities companies benefit from the continuous high trading volume, and real estate benefits from the marginal improvement of M & a loan policy, superimposing undervalued values. They are relatively high-quality configuration varieties.
In terms of theme, focus on the theme investment opportunities of military industry + digital currency + basic industrial chain substitution. In the military industry, with the support of equipment upgrading driving the increase of military expenditure, the prosperity of the industry has improved; Digital currency, the Winter Olympic Games is approaching, the application scenarios are constantly enriched, and the theme investment opportunities are paid attention to; Focus on the alternative opportunities of the basic industrial chain, and focus on the transition from localization 2.0 represented by semiconductors and integrated circuits to localization 3.0 of parts.
Risk statement
The steady growth policy was not as expected; There are deviations in policy interpretation; The omricon epidemic situation repeatedly exceeded expectations
