In the process of recent exchanges with various types of investors, it can be seen that the core contradiction of the current market is the game between fundamental expectations and liquidity expectations under the steady growth policy.
In terms of style discussion, we believe that the current steady growth trend for quite a long time to come is clear. Due to the differences in the market’s understanding of the strength of the steady growth policy, the current CSI 300 index more reflects the characteristics of tamping the bottom. We don’t worry about this “bottom grinding”. What we need most in the bottom grinding process is patience. We believe that the GDP growth rate next year will probably pick up compared with the second half of this year, and the “economic bottom” may occur in the second quarter of next year, which determines that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has a high probability of swing back in the medium term, and should be more optimistic after the Spring Festival.
For the evaluation of the industrial track at the beginning of the year, the current fluctuations of the high boom and high valuation track represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) are more based on the position adjustment of public funds at the end of the year under the disturbance of market sentiment and the emphasis on profit taking under the reduction of risk preference. The disturbance of market sentiment is the main factor, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The medium-term trend of the industry continues to be optimistic, but the short-term volatility will be significantly enhanced, It is recommended to trade time for space. At the same time, we believe that “intelligence” is the preferred direction at present, the intelligent automobile industry chain is still the top priority, and the continuous enrichment and improvement of industrial ecology is the core logic. At the same time, driven by the expectation of steady growth, priority is given to focusing on the long logic track. It is suggested to pay attention to: intelligent automobile industry chain, chemical industry (new material field and traditional infrastructure related fields), power, electronics (Consumer Electronics), food and beverage, banking, etc.
Overall, the current market is “impetuous but not moving”, which is in the consolidation and layout period. We need to wait for key signals such as clear policy expectations, improvement of incremental funds and stability of the external environment. The signal of breaking the situation lies in the implementation of credit extension and domestic demand expansion policies at the beginning of the year and the promotion of covid-19 drugs and strengthening needles. Under the background of consistent expectations for steady growth and relatively loose liquidity, the follow-up needs to focus on the “good start” of the issuance of new funds, and “build a platform for value and grow up”. This round of spring agitation is still worth looking forward to.
Risk tip: the epidemic spread exceeded expectations, the policy was less than expected, the Sino US relations deteriorated again, and the overseas monetary policy changed
