Ping An View:
Hong Kong stocks were flat last week, and global stock markets rose more or fell less. Most global stock markets rose last week, with developed markets outperforming emerging markets. In developed markets, the three major stock indexes of US stocks are the strongest, with weekly rise and fall of more than 1.6%; The three major European stock indexes and Australian stock indexes also performed well, with weekly gains and losses of more than 1.4%; The Japanese stock index performed well, rising about 0.8%. In emerging markets, except China’s Taiwan, India, Russia’s stock index weekly decline is 0-1.0%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and South Korean stock index drops slightly, the Brazil stock index falls to a deeper degree; The Hong Kong stock market represented by the Hang Seng index was mediocre, with weekly gains and losses of 0.13%, ranking in the middle of the world’s major stock indexes.
Most of the whole industry went up, and utilities and Telecommunications increased significantly. Most of the Hong Kong stock industry sectors rose last week, among which the public utilities and telecommunications industry increased significantly, with weekly increases of 2.8% and 1.3% respectively, while the growth of information technology, energy, essential consumption, industry and comprehensive industry was between 0-1.0%; Non essential consumption, finance, real estate construction, raw materials and medical health fell weekly, among which medical health and raw materials fell the most. Due to the rise of most industries, but the decline of weight sectors such as real estate construction, non essential consumption and health care, Hong Kong stocks generally performed mediocrely last week.
The European energy crisis eased, but the risk of stagflation is still significant. Recently, there has been another energy crisis in Europe. On the one hand, many nuclear reactors in France have been shut down due to pipeline defects, and the “nuclear shutdown and coal abandonment” and other measures implemented by Germany and other European countries have increased Europe’s dependence on natural gas; On the other hand, at present, the demand for natural gas in Europe is in the peak season. The game between Russia and the European Union on Ukraine and Beixi No. 2 is heating up, and the supply of natural gas is shrinking in the short term. In this context, the European energy crisis broke out against the background of soaring prices caused by the rapid tightening of natural gas supply and demand. With the transit of American LNG traders based on price difference and the statement of Russia’s active supply guarantee, the price of natural gas in Europe fell significantly and the energy crisis eased. Nevertheless, Europe is still likely to face a more severe pattern of “stagflation” in the future.
Southward funds continued to flow into the Internet sector. Since the beginning of December, the momentum of southward capital re flowing into the Internet sector continues. Although the Internet sector and leading targets have not achieved significant growth in the past few weeks, their obvious stabilization trend and significant undervaluation advantages compared with their counterparts in the United States still have a strong attraction for domestic capital that sees long-term allocation opportunities.
The consumer sector can pay more attention, and the rise of the cyclical sector is difficult to sustain. We suggest that the short-term Hong Kong stock strategy pay more attention to the consumption field, specifically, the essential consumer goods with the ability to raise prices and high viscosity consumption that are expected to continue. Among them, the essential consumer goods with the ability to raise prices are mainly mandatory daily necessities, including a few optional consumer goods with the ability to raise prices; Self pleasing consumption includes not only trendy self pleasing consumer goods, but also traditional self pleasing consumption such as wine, sports and entertainment. The recent strong performance of nonferrous metals, energy and other cyclical industries stimulated by the European energy crisis may intensify short-term fluctuations, and the rising market is expected to be difficult to continue.
Risk tips: 1) covid-19 epidemic further increases the impact; 2) The global fiscal stimulus is less than expected or the monetary tightening is faster than expected; 3) Macroeconomic recovery is less than expected; 4) Overseas market volatility intensified.
