Macro strategy weekly: the national energy work conference will be held, and the development of photovoltaic wind power will be accelerated next year

1、 Last week’s economic and market review:

The commodity market was divided last week. The market’s concern about the mutant virus has eased, and the European and American stock markets have rebounded. However, China’s stock market fell. China’s treasury bond yields fell slightly, while US and European treasury bond yields rebounded significantly.

China’s top five commodities rose or fell: pulp 7.58%, coking coal 6.96%, iron ore 5.24% and lpg5 12%, Doudi 5.02%; Jujube – 8.10%, dynamic coal – 5.89%, glass – 3.80%, soda ash – 3.44%, methanol – 2.71%

The top five (100 million yuan) of precipitation capital inflow and outflow: iron ore 6.11, soybean oil 4.86, crude oil 3.59, Shanghai tin 3.34 and palm 3.02; Hutong-2.92, thread-2.35, corn-2.23, vegetable oil-1.74, huyin-1.30

Inflow and outflow of precipitation funds from the sector (RMB 100 million): nonferrous metals 14.64, energy and chemical industry 12.25, black building materials 8.73, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) 3.93, precious metals 0.14

2、 This week focuses on:

The 2022 national energy work conference will be held in Beijing. From the seven key tasks of energy work next year, it is expected that there is little possibility of power shortage next year, and photovoltaic and wind power will maintain rapid development.

First, next year’s energy work will first make every effort to ensure energy security, and will continue to play the role of coal as a “ballast”. We expect that there is less possibility of power shortage next year. Recently, the central government stressed that China should still focus on economic construction, and it is expected that China’s economic growth target next year will not be low. This requires that the power supply be guaranteed. Next year, the national energy administration will continue to play the role of coal power as a “ballast” in power supply and make every effort to ensure energy security. China’s coal production capacity and coal power installed capacity are generally sufficient. As long as the energy supply guarantee policy is implemented, it is expected that there is little possibility of power shortage next year.

Second, next year, the national energy administration will accelerate the implementation of renewable energy substitution action, and it is expected that photovoltaic and wind power will maintain rapid development. Next year, the national energy administration will accelerate the implementation of renewable energy substitution actions, focusing on the development of photovoltaic and wind power, actively promote the cluster development of offshore wind power and the development of wind power photovoltaic bases in the “Three North” areas, pay close attention to the construction of wind power photovoltaic bases in deserts, Gobi and deserts, and start the implementation of “wind control action in thousands of villages and villages” and “Sunshine Action for thousands of families”. This means that photovoltaic and wind power will maintain rapid development next year, bringing investment opportunities to relevant fields.

Risk tip: transmission of Omicron mutant virus

 

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