Report summary:
The cold wave is expected to promote the recovery of daily consumption, and the downward space of thermal coal price is limited. According to the coal resources network, affected by the reduction in the purchase price of large groups this week, we waited for the final landing of the long-term agreement price, and the procurement of downstream and terminals was suspended. There was a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and the price continued to decline. At the end of the year, various inspections at the supply end became stricter, more mines were shut down for maintenance, and the utilization rate of coal mine capacity fell. The cold wave in the downstream hit. China weather.com said that this round of cold wave process will change the pattern of significant warming in the early stage in the Middle East. The Jiangnan region late in winter will catch up with the seasonal change progress under this cold wave. It is expected that this round of cold wave will drive the daily consumption to continue to rise. At the same time, cooling and Blizzard may lead to the obstruction of coal transportation and the short decline of coal production, which will support the coal price.
The supply of coke is tightened, and the price is expected to be strong. According to the coal resources network, in terms of supply, environmental protection inspection and superposition, at the end of the year, Shanxi withdrew from coke ovens below 4.3 meters, the coke supply contracted, at the same time, the price of raw coal rebounded, the cost side was supported, and the psychology of coking enterprises was strengthened. In the downstream, some steel mills have production resumption plans, and the short-term winter storage demand improves the procurement enthusiasm, but the overall capacity release is still relatively low. Therefore, the increase of coking enterprises in this round has not been fully implemented. On the whole, the steel mills are willing to replenish the stock, the sales of coke enterprises are good, and they are mostly optimistic about the future market of coke. It is expected that the coke market may be stable, medium and strong in the short term.
Coking coal supply has shrunk, and the price is expected to be stable and stronger. According to the coal resources network, in terms of supply, the safety and environmental protection inspection of the main producing areas is still stricter. Among them, Shanxi Province held a large-scale investigation and rectification of potential risks in the field of safety production in the province. The production of coal mines is limited to varying degrees, and the production task is completed at the end of the year. Some coal mines have stopped production for maintenance, and the supply of coking coal market continues to be tightened. In terms of demand, the stock of raw coal in the plant of coking steel enterprises is at a low level, and the enthusiasm for raw coal procurement has been improved. Overall, the coking coal market is expected to rise steadily in the short term.
Investment suggestions: 1) companies with stable profits and high cash flow are also expected to usher in value revaluation. It is recommended to pay attention to China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) . 2) The transformation of traditional energy enterprises to new energy kicked off, and Yankuang energy and power investment energy were recommended. 3) Under the dual carbon target, we recommend Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Company Limited(000968) as the target for methane emission reduction.
Risk tip: risk of economic slowdown; Risk of falling coal prices; Risk of policy change.