Focus this week
Under the influence of the "double epidemic" of non plague and covid-19, the consumption substitution function and nutritional value effect of beef have gradually appeared. Since 2020, the national average price of beef has always been at a high level, and each month is higher than the price in the same period in history, and the highest price in history was 89.46 yuan / kg in February 2021. Since 2021, the annual average price has been 86.41 yuan / kg, an increase of 2.8% over last year and 18.2% over 2019.
Core view
On the one hand, China's beef consumption increased due to the adjustment of demand structure. On the one hand, the rise in beef prices comes from the rise in beef consumption level brought about by the adjustment of China's demand structure. Over the past decade, China's per capita beef consumption has basically maintained an upward trend. In 2019, the per capita beef consumption reached 5.94 kg / person, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% and 6 kg / person in 2020. However, compared with developed countries, China's per capita beef consumption still has great room for improvement. According to the oecd-fao Agricultural Outlook data, the per capita beef consumption of the United States will reach 26.2 kg / person in 2020, and that of neighboring Japan will also reach 7.48 kg / person.
On the other hand, China's beef supply has always been unable to meet the rising demand. In 2020, there were 66.18 million beef cattle on hand, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, and 45.64 million beef cattle were sold, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. The Spring Festival in 2020 comes earlier, so the slaughter time of fattening cattle in China is earlier. However, after the covid-19 epidemic, the national live cattle trading market is limited, resulting in an increase in the gap between slaughter and supplementary slaughter. Although the live cattle trade gradually returned to normal with the easing of the epidemic, the fattening cycle of beef cattle in China was generally prolonged, and the mainstream fattening cycle was 12-15 months. Therefore, the gap period in the breeding link at the beginning of the year still led to the decline of fattening cattle production capacity. In addition, the spread of covid-19 restricted the import of foreign live cattle and delayed the pace of fence filling.
China's insufficient supply depends on imports, and the import volume continues to increase. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2020, China's beef production reached 6.72 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, lower than the growth rate of demand. China's insufficient supply can only rely on imports to make up the gap. In 2020, China imported 2.12 million tons of beef, and the beef self-sufficiency rate was only 76%. From January to November 2021, the import volume has reached 2.13 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%.
Insufficient supply will be a long-term problem for China's beef industry. Policies encourage the beef industry to accelerate its development. In April 2021, the Ministry of Rural Agriculture issued the notice on the five year action plan for promoting the development of beef cattle and sheep production, which requires that by 2025, the self-sufficiency rate of beef and sheep meat will be maintained at about 85%, the output of beef and sheep meat will be stable at about 6.8 million tons and 5 million tons respectively, and the proportion of large-scale breeding of beef and sheep will reach 30% and 50% respectively. The government attaches great importance to the development of animal husbandry industry, and local governments have also introduced subsidies to beef cattle farmers in varying degrees to encourage the development of beef cattle breeding industry.
Risk statement
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuation risk, epidemic risk, industry competition and product risk, policy risk
