Zhou viewpoint:
The HKEx will introduce the SPAC listing mechanism on January 1, 2022. SPAC The listing of special purpose acquisition company is one of the more popular overseas IPO modes. Compared with the traditional IPO, the listing time is shorter, the success rate is higher, and the transaction structure design is more flexible. Compared with the version of the consultation document in September, the formal version of the scheme of HKEx reduces the requirements for the number of investors, gives more flexibility to the board structure, and adjusts the table consistent with the voting rights and share redemption rights Strengthen the mandatory independent pipe investment requirements and improve the diluted upper limit of warrants, reflecting the inclusiveness of widely absorbing the suggestions of the industry.
Based on the experience of the United States, the SPAC model will probably bring significant increment to the IPO of Hong Kong stocks and accelerate the return of China concept stocks. Spac model has been developed in the United States for many years, and its activity has increased significantly in recent years. As of November, the number of IPOs initiated by spac has reached 606, accounting for 64%, and the fund-raising scale has reached US $161 billion, accounting for 49%. We expect that the introduction of the SPAC model will significantly speed up the IPO process of the companies to be listed, accelerate the return of China concept shares, bring increment to the investment banking business and benefit the head securities companies with advantages in overseas business.
Focus on recommending individual stocks: we are firmly optimistic about the core main line of equity and institutionalization. The valuation premium space of advantageous securities companies in wealth management + large asset management + institutional business (derivatives, securities lending and capitalized investment banking) is significant. We firmly recommend Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , and suggest paying attention to China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) H.
Core data tracking:
1) Brokerage business: this Sunday's average share based turnover was 1181.2 billion yuan, a month on month increase of - 6.1%; From the beginning of the year to today, the average share based turnover was 1141.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.1%. In November, 1337500 new investors were added, a month on month increase of + 36.4%. At the end of the period, the number of investors reached 196 million.
2) Margin trading and securities lending: as of December 23 (the data on December 24 were not disclosed), the balance of the two cities and two financing was 1.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.5% and + 13.7% compared with the beginning of the year; at present, the balance of the two financing accounts for 2.46% of the circulating market value, which is the same as that at the beginning of the year.
3) Investment banking: as of December 24, the IPO and refinancing underwriting scale of this year were 532.5 billion yuan and 1049.3 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.9% and + 28.1%; The underwriting scale of corporate bonds, corporate bonds and ABS was 3379.4 billion yuan, 430.4 billion yuan and 1959.4 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.8%, + 10.1% and - 6.8%.
4) Public funds: the average estimated application redemption ratio of the fund this week is 1.68, and the overall fund market is expected to be a net inflow of funds; Since the fourth quarter, the average estimated fund application redemption ratio is 1.20. The scale of newly established equity funds was 27.3 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 50%; Since the beginning of the year, the newly established equity fund has reached 205 million yuan, up + 4.5% from the same period of the previous year.
5) OTC derivatives: in October, the nominal principal of OTC options increased by 250.6 billion yuan, a month on month increase of - 32.8%, and the nominal principal of income swaps increased by 359 billion yuan, a month on month increase of - 26.0%; At the end of the period, the outstanding initial nominal principal of OTC options + beneficial swaps was 1.96 trillion yuan, up + 49% from the beginning of the year.
Risk tip: the reform is not advancing as expected; Large fluctuations in the capital market; The transfer of residents' asset allocation was less than expected.
