1. Market resumption in 2021: the dividing point of the stock price of the cosmetics industry is concentrated from June to July.
The driving factors for the rise in the first half of the year: the zero double-digit growth of cosmetics companies + the explosive market of medicine and the United States pulled up the valuation center;
The driver of the correction in the second half of the year: the zero growth rate of cosmetics companies fell to single digits + the high correction of the medical and American sector. At the manufacturing end, the price pressure was not fully transferred to the downstream, resulting in the peak performance pressure of 21q2-q3.
2. Performance recovery in 2021: the performance of leading companies is extremely strong α Sex, α originate:
Product: Based on R & D and empowerment, new products are iteratively launched. For example: Winona - freeze-drying mask, Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) - early C night A, the Queen's small gold tube, Dr. Cole - Anti Gravity milk.
Channels: down to earth, tiktok and other new channels are imported into China.
Management: stable management team, flat organizational structure and efficient incentive system. For example, Winona strengthens the DNA + Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) marketing pre + Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) equity incentive + Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) of pharmaceutical enterprises to lead the war and bind the equity.
New brands: new brands emerge and even catch up with and surpass the main brands. For example: Winona baby hatched smoothly; Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) - Caitang contributes income increment; Huaxi - kwadi impact 1 billion yuan; Dr. Lu Shang yu'er is against Yi Lian.
3. Market outlook for 2022: mainly shock, looking forward to zero upward and performance elasticity at the manufacturing end.
Brand: waiting for the plate opportunities brought by social zero upward; And looking for higher segments β+ Sustainable proven α。
Manufacturing: expect the performance growth elasticity brought by smooth cost transmission and capacity release.
4. Investment logic: three main lines
Main line 1: excellent fundamentals, high certainty of performance growth + the leader of subdivision track with fast compound growth in the next two years. It is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , etc.
Main line 2: cutting edge small ticket, high elasticity of undervalued value and strong explosive growth force. It belongs to "small lotus talent exposed sharp corners" in the industry. It is expected to welcome Davis double click. It is recommended to pay attention to Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) .
Main line 3: upstream high-quality manufacturing, benefit from the release of production capacity next year, or the products enter the price increase channel, the performance inflection point is the key verification period, or meet the bottom rebound market. It is recommended to pay attention to Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) , Jahen Household Products Co.Ltd(300955) , Fujian Green Pine Co.Ltd(300132) .
5. Tip: for the new share market, it is recommended to pay attention to the leader in the IPO process of the new segment track: Mao Geping + Fu Erjia + Chuang Er biology.
Risk statement
1. The competition pattern intensifies the risk.
2. Risks of industrial regulatory policy adjustment.
3. Product R & D risk
4. Product quality control and other risks.
5. Enterprise brain drain, strategic mistakes and other risks.
6. The risk that enterprise marketing model can not adapt to market changes.
7. Other risks.
