1. The price increase is expected to rise, and the catalytic plate rebounded strongly. Food and beverage rose 3.76% this week, We won the 4.15 percentage point of the Shanghai Composite Index (-0.39%). The subdivision plate saw that the snack, health care products, Baijiu and beer plates rose by 6.81%, 5.15%, 4.29% and 4.27% respectively. Among them, the Baijiu plate was expected to be catalyzed by the price increase. The mass product sector, the vacuum period of the performance, and the expected improvement in the operation of the liquor sector catalyzed the stock market, especially the stocks with less market concern. Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) led the rise, with an increase of 19.33%, followed by Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) (+ 13.85%), Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) (+ 12.06%), and Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (+ 11.74%).
2, multiple factors resonance, Baijiu plate strong performance at the end of the year. This week Baijiu plate rose 4.29%. Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) (+ 9.63%), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (+ 6.99%), Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) (+ 5.26%), Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (+ 5.11%), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (+ 2.88%) led the increase. The plate fluctuated greatly in the past two weeks. On the one hand, the market expectation of Maotai price increase increased near the end of the year, on the other hand, other head liquor enterprises’ information (such as Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) management change; Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) And other leading enterprises to raise prices; Dealer conferences, channel research feedback, etc.) also have an impact on market sentiment. At the same time, recently, wine enterprises have successively started the collection in the peak season, and the overall collection rhythm is benign. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Guojiao began to pay at the end of the month, It is expected that 22q1 will complete 40-60% of the annual payment collection task (the requirements of each region are slightly different); Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) All regions involved in drunkard series have opened a good start to collect money, and it is required to complete more than 35% of the collection progress; Yanghe’s advance orders grew well year-on-year, and the terminal demand was benign; Jiannanchun, Fenjiu, etc. all started the collection according to their own rhythm. Looking forward to 2022, the sector will probably achieve a good start, and the upward trend of the whole year is more clear, but the future is still dominated by structural opportunities. The high-end price will still grow steadily in the future and can be configured for a long time. The focus is on Maotai, mainly based on the company’s space and strength to raise prices at any time. In addition, it is suggested to focus on grasping the general trend of secondary high-end and continue to be optimistic about the regional secondary high-end leaders with solid foundation and continuous upgrading.
3. Social consumption is recovering weakly, and the turning point of mass goods still needs to wait. Pay attention to the catalysis of individual stock events. In November, the total social zero grew by 3.9% year-on-year, compared with the compound growth rate of 4.4% in 19 years. After excluding price factors, the growth rate of the month was 0.5%, and the overall consumer demand still did not improve significantly. Among them, the retail sales of grain, oil, food, beverage, tobacco and alcohol were + 14.8%, + 15.5%, + 13.3% respectively year-on-year, which may be related to the hoarding phenomenon in early November. Catering agencies turned negative year-on-year in November, with a growth rate of – 2.7%, compared with the compound growth rate of – 1.7% in 19 years. The recovery of catering consumption was slow. Both large and small restaurants declined year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 0.3% above the quota, compared with a compound growth rate of 0.7% in 19 years. The mass products sector lacks overall catalysis, and the rise and fall of individual stock prices are mainly driven by events. On the one hand, the smooth transmission of price increase has boosted the growth of the industry. The shipment data of many food enterprises are good, the terminal data are benign, and the performance of Q4 has improved month on month. On the other hand, consumer demand is still weak, the cost of main raw materials and packaging materials is still high, and the real inflection point of performance has not yet come. It is recommended to pay attention to the sub sectors with large industry space and low penetration and the beer and dairy industry with high-end trend, and screen the leading stocks with excellent fundamentals, reasonable valuation and pricing power from bottom to top.
4. Weiya event is expected to bring a new pattern of live e-commerce and benefit the head brand of consumer goods. Live e-commerce is one of the new channels of consumer goods that have emerged in the past 19 years. The head anchor Gmv has grown rapidly, breaking the traditional e-commerce traffic allocation rules. Among them, the head anchor Matthew effect is obvious, forming a positive circulation effect of traffic concentration – more brand discounts – more fans’ attention. This week, the former head anchor Weiya was found out for tax evasion, fined 1.34 billion yuan and was granted the title. Previously, famous anchor Sydney and others were fined the title, “Decentralization” of anchor “Announce the end of the brutal growth period of live e-commerce. The industry competition pattern of top brands is expected to improve, mainly in three aspects: 1) the new brand loses the traffic support of super anchor, and it becomes more difficult to break out of the encirclement in the short term. 2) super anchor often requires ultra-low discounts, which has a certain impact on the original price system of brands. Brands are forced to participate in the top The anchor price war has decreased. 3) The reshuffle of live e-commerce traffic rules is conducive to the greater development of official live broadcasting of brand stores and content e-commerce live broadcasting.
5. Industry and company perspectives update:
(1) Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) : the effect of system adjustment is remarkable, and the business vitality is accelerated. The company is expected to continue the growth trend in the first three quarters throughout the year, and the net profit may be affected by Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) Affected by stock price fluctuations. In 2021, the company’s products will maintain a good growth rhythm. The growth rate of expensive wine is expected to exceed 300%, and Shuanggou is expected to increase by 30%; The overall revenue of dream series accounts for about 30%. Dream 6 + continues to maintain high growth. Crystal dream has basically completed the replacement of the old version. The company will gradually promote the upgrading and innovation of manual class, sea blue and dream 9 in the future. The company has gradually come out of the trough through three years of adjustment, and the new chairman is in his prime of life and aggressive. Recently, the company’s incentive plan has also been successfully implemented, and the assessment objectives have been accelerated compared with the previous period, which is expected to fully release the company’s business vitality.
(2) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) : continue to promote marketing reform and accelerate the release of brand energy. This week Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) held the 2021 global dealer conference. The core points of the conference are 1) in recent five years, the company has boldly carried out marketing organization reform to form “31 + 10” The layout of regional basic organization has realized the flattening of marketing organization and established a marketing team with more than 5000 people; The company’s billion yuan market has grown to 28 in 2021, with 2944 dealers and 1 million terminal controls; The market outside the province developed rapidly, and the average growth rate of the market south of the Yangtze River reached 60%. 2) Next, the company will continue to focus on the overall reform policy of “133238”, set the goal of one-third of the world, and go all out to promote the marketing reform of Fenjiu. We believe that Fenjiu will continue to enjoy the double price dividends of sub high-end and high-speed bottled wine, continuously improve its operation and management, and accelerate the release of brand potential, but it also needs to continue to support the overvalued value with performance in the future.
(3) Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) : high growth will continue in 2021, and supply chain optimization will be the first in 2022. This week Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) will hold the 2021 dealer conference, and the core points of the conference are 1) in the past three years Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) Three years of breakthrough in brand value, product value, team value and customer value. In past 1-2 years, number of the partners involved in alcoholics has increased 10 times and 3 times respectively; Improve the quantity and quality of specialty stores; The number of teams is three times that of the same period in 2019. Since 2020, the company has been involved in terminal marketing, focusing on core terminals, and the efficiency of the team in customer service has also been improved. 2) In 2022, the company will realize the accurate supply of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and ginseng wine, supply with quota in Xiangquan, and do not dump and fleeing goods at low prices. In the future, the company will strive to achieve the goal of 10 billion as soon as possible in accordance with the “1349” strategy. On the whole, the company complies with the sub high-end trend and is currently in the elastic growth period of investment promotion and distribution, but it needs to closely track the actual dynamic sales after the channel is gradually stabilized.
（4） Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) : the impact of the epidemic is controllable, and the product and regional structure continue to be optimized. The company received more money than expected in December, but the epidemic still had a certain impact on the annual performance. It is expected that the revenue / profit will still maintain a single digit growth. The company will strive to continue to achieve a sales revenue of 2.5 billion in 2022. At present, the company maintains a benign upgrading rhythm in product structure and regional structure. In 2022, it will continue to pay close attention to consumption guidance, do a good job in key customer operation, and do a good job in upgrading relying on the advantages of existing brands. The premise of the company’s future expansion outside the province is to continue to take root in the province (the company currently accounts for about 25% of the city in the province) and deal with the competitive pressure outside the province from the two aspects of quality and brand. In the long run, the company will continue to fulfill the three logic of “increasing the share in the province, developing at the sub high end and expanding in Pan regionalization outside the province”, and is optimistic about the steady realization of the company’s five-year planning goal. (5) Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) : the organizational adjustment is basically in place, and the company continues the process of high-end + nationalization. At the product level, Wusu’s current growth rate is relatively healthy, the brand competitiveness has not been brought into full play, and it is still in the stage of rapid growth. The annual sales volume in 2021 is about 800000 kiloliters. At the organizational adjustment level, the adjustment of the company will be completed by the end of this year. At present, the corresponding market is divided according to provincial administrative regions. Each administrative region has only one sales team, covering the operation of all channels and all brands. In addition, the company’s Yangfan 27 strategy is expected to be introduced in the second half of 2022, and the general direction of the company’s high-end will not change; In the face of cost pressure, the company will rhythmically promote price adjustment to hedge the pressure of rising costs. At present, Wusu terminal brand is gaining momentum and the development of blank market is accelerating. Considering the synergy brought by asset restructuring, we are optimistic about the steady progress of high-end + nationalization of the company in the future.
(6) Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) : DTC mode incubates new brands, constantly innovating and breaking through boundaries. The company incubates new brands and introduces the brand of “Cong Jian” of 0 sugar and 0 calorie sparkling wine. Cong Jian is a new brand created by DTC mode, and the brand tone focuses on “ease”, “everything from reduction” and “it’s not necessary” Life attitude, light taste and good entrance, including sunset cranberry, summer night cucumber and other four flavors. In recent years, the company has steadily promoted new products and accelerated their frequency, leading the development trend of low alcohol wine. In the first half of the year, the company maintained rapid growth despite the weak overall demand for mass products. The first price increase in December is expected to be conducted smoothly. If the cost returns to the normal level next year, it can contribute more performance flexibility. The new equity incentive target is stable, which helps to fully mobilize the enthusiasm and creativity of employees and is conducive to long-term development.
（7） Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) : the pace of opening stores this year is steady, and the planning is flexibly adjusted to cope with the cold winter of catering. Juewe has basically completed the store opening plan this year, and Q4 has improved month on month. The overall single store has reached more than 90% in 19 years, and has recovered well except for the transportation hub stores. Under the uncertain factors of the epidemic situation, the company responded calmly, adjusted its strategies in time, and maintained the stability of cash flow and operation management on the basis of ensuring the completion of equity incentive objectives. The company has been deeply engaged in the bittern industry for many years and has accumulated profound advantages in many aspects such as channel, supply chain and store management. The single point model resources of various stores are expected to effectively promote the plan of sinking the market. This year, the enabling role of the food ecosystem has achieved initial results. In the future, with the further improvement of the company’s layout of table brine, compound seasoning and light catering, the synergy with the main business of brine is expected to further appear.
6. Recommend stocks: Overall, the trend of steady and good trend in Baijiu industry remains unchanged.
Continuous cashing; The dark hour of popular products has passed, and the price increase has brought about marginal improvement in the performance of the sector, so we can choose the best layout. Based on this, we maintain the rating of the food and beverage industry as “recommended”.
Baijiu: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) .
Popular products: Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) etc.
Short term suggestions: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) etc.
7. Risk tips: 1) the recovery of catering channels affected by the epidemic is lower than expected; 2) Macroeconomic fluctuations hinder the pace of consumption upgrading; 3) Industry policy changes lead to increased competition; 4) The price of raw materials has risen sharply; 5) Food safety incidents, etc.
