As of December 24, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39% and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.67% this week. Steel plate fell by 3.99%; Among the sub plates, the ordinary steel plate increased by 0%, and the special material plate decreased by 3.86%.
Steel market: the profit per ton of steel is at a high level, and the demand is expected to improve, but it remains to be verified
Steel prices fell this week. Spot prices of rebar, hot rolling and medium plate fell by 0.61%, 1.2% and 0.2% respectively. Spot prices of cold rolling remained at the level of last week. The performance of the steel market resumed this week. The spot price was weak as a whole, the release of downstream demand was weak as a whole, and the social inventory was accelerated. In the past few weeks, the willingness of steel enterprises to resume production was strengthened, driving the price of raw materials to rise slightly. At present, the characteristics of off-season demand in the steel market are becoming more and more obvious, the actual procurement demand in the market is gradually weakening, and the traditional "winter storage" demand has not been put into force. Most parts of the country have entered the cold winter, and the terminal demand has been restrained. However, as the national inventory is still low, it forms some support for the price. The new round of infrastructure investment will heat up. The policy tone next year is stable and the demand is expected to improve. However, it is difficult to verify the demand in the current off-season. Whether there is an inflection point in the demand needs to be verified in the peak season next year.
In terms of special steel, stainless steel has good support for a long time, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention. In the long run, with the support of the national carbon peak policy, the reduction of crude steel production has become a deterministic trend, which is important for the price and profit of stainless steel. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) and other targets.
As the core metal material in the field of new energy vehicles, electrical steel is also a plate worthy of attention. Electrical steel is the motor and core material of new energy vehicles. Under the resonance of carbon neutralization at the policy end, accelerated admission of new and old car making forces at the supply end, and improved economy and convenience at the consumer end, new energy vehicles have developed rapidly, driving the downstream demand for electrical steel, The electrical steel plate has ushered in a major opportunity, but the valuation of Companies in the plate is generally not high. They are optimistic about the electrical steel plate for a long time. It is suggested to focus on Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , etc.
As of Friday, the price of rebar in the spot market was 4870.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 0.61%; The price of hot rolled coil was 4960.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.2%; The price of cold rolled coil is 5610.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 0%; The price of the medium plate was 5090.00 yuan / ton, down 0.2% from last week. In the futures market, the active contract price of rebar was 4519.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.31%; The active contract price of hot rolled coil was 4616.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.37%; The active contract price of wire rod was 4710.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 2.32%. The myspic composite steel price index was 179.72 points, with a weekly decline of 0.29%, of which the myspic long material index fell by 0.25% and the myspic flat plate index fell by 0.35%.
Raw material Market: iron ore fluctuates strongly and coke prices remain stable
The prices of iron ore and coking coal rose slightly this week, and the transaction price of coke was flat, which was generally stable. Iron ore continued the steady upward trend of last week, and the price rose. The price of raw materials was driven by the increased willingness of steel enterprises to resume production.
As of Friday, the price of Australian Pb powder in the spot market was 815.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 7.95%; The price of primary metallurgical coke is 2810.00 yuan / ton, stable and unchanged; The price of main coking coal was 1950 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week. In the futures market, the active contract price of iron ore was 713.50 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 5.47%; The active contract price of coke was 3168.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.85%; The active price of coking coal was 2327.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 7.33%.
Steel supply and demand: wire stock accelerated decline and cold rolling increased
The steel output decreased this week, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased to 45.99%, which was lower than that of last week. In terms of output, the output of various varieties of steel showed a downward trend compared with last week: the output of cold rolling, hot rolling, wire rod, medium and heavy plate and thread steel decreased by 10.15%, 11.34%, 17.86%, 0.39% and 23.59% compared with last week. In terms of steel mill inventory this week, the inventory of hot rolling, wire rod, medium and heavy plate and rebar decreased by 0.89%, 11.54%, 3.07% and 7.48% respectively, and the inventory of cold rolling increased by 1.06%. The market demand suppressed by the high price in the early stage may be released, and the market transaction will improve. The 2022 Winter Olympic Games is approaching, and the pressure of environmental protection will lead to the contraction of supply in Beijing and Tianjin, driving the rebound of China's steel market.
Investment advice
With the recovery of manufacturing demand superimposed on the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, the profit logic of the steel industry has been reconstructed, and steel enterprises have further benefited from the cyclical rotation. We are still optimistic about the steel sector for a long time. The national defense, military industry and aerospace industry have a broad domestic substitution space, and products such as superalloy, special stainless steel and ultra-high strength steel occupy an absolute dominant position. It is suggested to focus on the performance of the China Daily report and the special steel leader who can realize the high prospect of the industry: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; Leaders in traditional fields + hot emerging business targets are more favored by the market. It is suggested to focus on stainless steel rods and wires and mica lithium extraction leaders: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ; And the high growth leader in the field of cold rolled stainless steel: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) .
Risk statement
Covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated; The economic downturn accelerated; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The demand for real estate steel fell sharply; Steel destocking process is blocked.
