Sector market review
This week (12 / 20-12 / 24), the transportation index rose 0.62%, the CSI 300 index fell 0.67%, outperformed the market by 1.29%, ranking 8 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, the express sector increased the most (7.03%) and the public transport sector decreased the most (- 5.79%).
Industry perspective
Express delivery: the State Post Office announced that in November, the business volume of national express service enterprises completed 11.33 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, the business revenue completed 107.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, and the single ticket revenue was 9.49 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 3.81%. The rise in express prices in peak seasons is expected to drive the improvement of enterprise profits. We believe that under the background of stricter industry supervision, all express companies pay less attention to share, turn to multi-dimensional consideration and pay more attention to service quality. The express price is expected to stabilize next year. We mainly recommend the leading express enterprises Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) . S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) the adjustment of business strategy pays more attention to quality growth, the impact of capacity cycle gradually subsides, Kerry Logistics promotes the development of international business, has strong certainty of performance repair, and is recommended at the current time point.
Logistics: there is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. After Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and other accidents, the supply of the industry is limited, and the demand side still grows every year. We are optimistic that the chemical logistics sector will pay attention to Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co.Ltd(002930) , Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) . The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win and pay attention to Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) .
Aviation: as of December 25, 2021, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and Xinjiang production and Construction Corps have been vaccinated with covid-19 virus vaccine for more than 2.758 billion times, and more than 1.2 billion people have been vaccinated in the whole process. The success of covid-19 drug research and development will help production and life return to normal, “the 14th five year plan” During this period, the growth rate of aviation supply decreased and the market-oriented reform of ticket prices will improve the long-term profits of the airline company. After the adjustment of the aviation sector, the investment value is highlighted. It is recommended to actively allocate, with emphasis on Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) .
Key industry data
Centralized transportation: the CCFI index was 3300.19 points, up 1.69% month on month; The SCFI index was 4956.02 points, up 1.3% month on month; The PDCI index was 1877.00, up 1.40% month on month. Dry powder: the BDI index was 2217.00 points, down 6.8% month on month; The CDFI index was 1269.66 points, down 2.43% month on month. Oil transportation: the BDTI index was 786.00 points, down 2.1% month on month; The bcti index was 788.00 points, down 3.0% month on month.
Express: in November 2021, the revenue of express business above designated size was 107.490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%; The express business volume was 11.332 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%; The unit price of express delivery was 9.49 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%; The brand concentration index CR8 of express and parcel services is 80.70.
Aviation: Brent crude oil was USD 76.14/barrel, up 3.56% month on month; In December 2021, the ex factory price (tax included) of aviation kerosene was 5384.00 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of 0.57%; the central parity of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.3692, a month on month increase of 0.06%.
Railway: in November 2021, the railway passenger volume was 144 million person times, a year-on-year decrease of 33.05%; The railway freight volume was 419 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.03%. Highway: in November 2021, the National Highway freight volume was 3.477 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.30%; The road passenger volume was 365 million person times, a year-on-year decrease of 43.30%.
Risk statement
The risk of sharp rise in oil prices, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of price war exceeding expectations.
