Core view
1. The cost demand both went up, and the price of sucralose continued to rise
The price of sucralose increased rapidly in the second half of this year. From August to October 2021, the mainstream price of sucralose increased rapidly, from 205000 yuan / ton at the beginning of August 2021 to 452000 yuan / ton at the end of October 2021. The price of sucralose increased slightly in December. As of December 17, 2021, the price of sucralose had risen to 480000 yuan / ton.
The rapid increase of sucralose price is mainly affected by cost and demand side. On the cost side, as of November 2021, the selling price of sucrose in key sugar enterprises increased by about 11.7% over the beginning of the year; As of December 24, the price of DMF had increased by about 98.6% over the beginning of the year. The rising cost of raw materials pushed up the price of sucralose. From the demand side, under the background of “double denier”, the global food demand has increased significantly, and the demand for sucralose mainly used in the field of sweeteners has increased. The consumption structure continues to upgrade and continuously promote the development of sucralose market. By the third quarter of 2021, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents was 26265 yuan, an increase of about 10.4% over the same period in 2020. With the increase of per capita disposable income of Chinese residents, the consumption structure of residents has also improved simultaneously. Healthier sugar substitute foods will gradually replace traditional sucrose products, and the sucralose market is expected to usher in sustainable development.
2. The index of chemicals increased slightly, and the price of n-butanol increased significantly
In the past week, China’s chemical price index CCPI increased by about 0.5% compared with a week ago, in which the price of n-butanol increased significantly and the price of spandex decreased significantly. In terms of n-butanol, the mainstream price of n-butanol in East China market increased by about 4.3% last week to close at 8450 yuan / ton. The rise of n-butanol price is mainly affected by the tightening of supply. Recently, the temporary shutdown of n-butanol unit in Northwest China has had a certain impact on the supply of n-butanol market. In terms of spandex, the market price of ccfei spandex price index fell by about 5.6% last week to close at 85000 yuan / ton. The decline in spandex prices was mainly due to the recent outbreak of the epidemic, which led to a significant reduction in the procurement demand of the downstream market in Xiaoshan Shaoxing area.
3. Rising international crude oil prices
Crude oil prices have risen significantly in the past week. Last week, the main futures settlement price of Brent crude oil rose by 3.6%, and the main futures settlement price of WTI crude oil rose by 3.1%. The rise in crude oil prices is mainly due to two reasons. First, the global economy continues to recover. With the increasing vaccination rate in European and American countries, market confidence has been boosted, which is expected to stimulate the recovery of oil demand. Secondly, the inventory level of American crude oil depots continued to decline. Since this year, the US commercial crude oil inventory level has continued to decline. As of December 17, the US commercial crude oil inventory was about 424 million barrels, down 15.8% compared with the same period last year. The continuous decline of US crude oil inventory has played a certain role in promoting the rise of crude oil prices.
4. Market review. Last week, 15 of the 31 Shenwan tertiary industries rose or were flat, and 16 fell. Among the sub sectors of chemical industry last week, the pesticide sector increased the most, reaching 3.5%; Phosphate fertilizer sector fell the most, down 11%. In terms of individual stocks, the top three gainers are: Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) , St Haiyue, Sichuan Lutianhua Company Limited(000912) , with weekly gains of 80.4%, 24.8% and 18.7% respectively; The top three weekly declines were Fengguang shares, Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Hubei Kailong Chemical Group Co.Ltd(002783) , with weekly declines of 32.4%, 16.9% and 16.6% respectively.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to the benefit targets under the background of rising prices of sucralose and n-butanol, such as Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) , Zibo Qixiang Tengda Chemical Co.Ltd(002408) , Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) .
Risk statement
Abnormal fluctuations in international oil prices, worsening of the international covid-19 epidemic, and upgrading of safety and environmental protection policies.
