Baijiu tracking: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) price increases, pay attention to Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) next week's pricing trend. This week's Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) box Mao's rated price increased by about 100 yuan to 3350 yuan for a single bottle compared with last weekend, and the rated price of Sanmao's single bottle increased by about 110 yuan to 2800 yuan. The channel tracking shows that the payment in January has not yet been fully started. The channel inventory relies on 1479 additional Feitian and 1 * 12 Feitian to maintain operation, but the overall inventory is very low; Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) at present, the payment in the first stage of the Spring Festival has been basically completed, and the operator is expected to complete 40-45% payment before the Spring Festival. At present Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) maintains the rating of 970 under the condition of low inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the rating trend after delivery in the next week.
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) : hold dealer conference and continue to deepen reform. Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) on December 26, the global dealer conference was held at the headquarters. The online conference was the first in history. At the meeting, the achievements of marketing in the past five years, development problems at this stage and future marketing methods were analyzed, and it was emphasized to maintain the original intention of reform. 1) Past achievements: in the past five years, the 100 million yuan market of Fenjiu has increased from 8 to 28, the number of dealers has increased from less than 1000 to 2944, and the number of terminals is less than 10000 to 1 million. The market outside the province grew rapidly, with an average growth rate of 60% in the market south of the Yangtze River, and the cumulative growth rate of Qinghua Fen Liquor exceeded 4 times in five years. The main products were further focused. The top ten sales of self operated products outside the province accounted for 86.61%, and the brand influence was greatly improved. 2) Development problems at this stage: the coordinated development of Xinghua village and personalized brand has not been solved; The international marketing system is still in the stage of infrastructure construction; The brand construction of Qinghua Fen Liquor has not been promoted on a large scale; There is still room for improvement in the cognition and ability of the existing business and dealer team; The digital construction of Zhongtai has not been completed. 3) Future marketing strategy: focusing on the overall reform policy of Fen Liquor Marketing in 133238, Continue to reform with the market as the center: (1) one goal: to enter the top three; (2) three campaigns: marketing, product structure and brand value; (3) Three markets: big base market, East China market and South China market. Big base Market: expand from Shanxi base to a big base market with six provinces as the core, build barriers in the north of the Yellow River, consolidate and expand the volume; East China market: focus on resources, achieve high-quality and high-speed leapfrog development, and explore new models; South China market: attract investment and cultivate, and improve terminals Coverage and build a new growth pole in 3-5 years; (4) Two major projects: the international marketing system construction project and the strategic building project of Xinghua village and personalized brand; (5) three indicators: the sales index of Qinghua Fen Liquor, the terminal index of Qinghua 20 and the index of Qinghua Fen Liquor opinion leader group. In 2022, we will vigorously promote the implementation of the assessment and incentive policies of these three indicators. (6) Eight insistences: Party building, talent cultivation, execution, focusing on the overall situation of (brand improvement) Central Service (Enterprise Development), greater efforts to tackle three key battles (high-quality channel construction, stricter price protection, greater consumer cultivation) and information construction (setting up a data center, Strictly Standardizing the data entry at the front desk), optimizing the dealer structure and price and expense control. 4) the reward is strong and wide: 535 dealers will be rewarded with 100000-1 million each; 400 exclusive stores will be rewarded with 40000-80000 each, and 170 grass-roots business personnel will be rewarded with 5000 yuan each.
High end liquid milk continued to increase, and the total sales of Jindian and terentsu exceeded 50 billion. On December 1, Yili Jindian's annual sales exceeded 20 billion yuan, becoming the third brand with an annual sales revenue of more than 20 billion yuan after Yili and amuxi. In the first three quarters of Yili, Jindian maintained a growth rate of more than 20%, and the organic growth rate of Jindian exceeded 50%. On the 23rd of the same month, Mengniu officially issued a document saying that in 2021, the sales volume of the whole platform of trensu will be nearly 30 billion, maintaining a high-speed growth of more than 30%. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of terentsu reached nearly 40%, and the growth rate of organic products exceeded 60%. According to the recent channel research feedback, the trend is still continuing. The growth rate of high-end white milk such as Q4 terentsu and Jindian still maintains a level of more than 20%. Consumers have a high acceptance of higher-end Jindian organic, terentsu dream cover, anmuxi fruit granules and other categories, and the dynamic sales are in good condition. We believe that with the strengthening of consumers' health awareness and the obvious trend of consumption classification, consumers are willing to pay a higher premium for healthy and nutritious food, which drives the process of high-end consumption of dairy products. Therefore, Yili and Mengniu, as the two dairy leaders, the structure of white milk products is still continuously optimized, so as to improve the profitability.
Many brands launched prefabricated dishes and new year's Eve dinner gift boxes to seize the medium and high-end market. A tiger with wings added to the official account of Anjoy in November 17th, including sea food and poultry gift boxes of three different prices, including Anjoy private chef, chef and chef, contains a series of dishes for family banquet, such as flower crabs, stewed turtle, and jump wall. The launch of the boxed food gift of Anji cuisine has adapted to the changes in the consumption demand of the urbanized middle class and expanded the sales market. Through the establishment of the electronic direct battalion department, the issuance of the Spring Festival card and the sale of the whole year, the three innovations have been launched together, and the innovative combination of sales models has been launched, opening up a new world for prefabricated dishes to promote sales. The dinner on New Year's Eve in 2022 was launched by the official account of WeChat public in December 17th, which was called "the Tang Dynasty Palace Banquet" by the official "WeChat". The menu of the new year's Eve dinner covers 13 hard dishes, including fish head with chopped pepper, seafood and other hard dishes. There are two sets of 599 and 666. According to the food industry news, zihi pot has also recently produced the "Newton's law" brand and launched the New Year gift box series of prefabricated dishes. It selects ingredients such as emperor crab, Boston lobster, wild abalone, Yunnan mushroom and so on. It is simply heated and ready to eat. We believe that prefabricated dishes can seize the middle and high-end market of C-end by launching large meal gift boxes, cultivate consumption habits and improve consumers' acceptance and recognition of prefabricated dishes.
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) : scale advantages shape barriers, and the development of condiment + central kitchen can be expected. (1) Price adjustment. The prices of the company's edible oil business in non retail channels follow the market. The prices of retail channels have been adjusted at the end of last year and this year, but the range is small; the price of condiments has basically not been adjusted, because the current volume is small, and the income can cover the cost. (2) Scale advantages shape high barriers. The company expands sales, constantly optimizes product structure, and actively develops higher-end and higher-quality products; at the same time, continuously optimizes costs. The development of new business can give full play to brand and channel advantages, improve product competitiveness and profitability, and further improve. In recent years, the company has launched many high-end products, such as hujihua ancient method small squeezed peanut oil Oliviolan olive oil, grandma Township mustard seed oil, "zero trans fatty acid" oil, rice oil, Ruyu imperial concubine Wuchang rice flower fragrance, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) small fresh rice, buckwheat vermicelli with 51% buckwheat content, fermented vermicelli, Hetao Plain snowflake powder, etc. comply with the escalating consumption trend. The company has its own pressing, refining and filling plants, and the capacity scale is also one of the largest in China, so the production cost has a leading advantage; The company has 69 production bases all over the country with a small distribution radius. In addition, the company has a large overall volume and many product categories. It can share brands and sales channels, so it will also have advantages in logistics and marketing costs. (3) Actively arrange the condiment business. In terms of production, the condiment production can rely on the company's existing comprehensive production base, and the company has strong R & D technical capacity; in terms of marketing network, the company's condiment popularity is expected to continue to improve in the retail channel, and in the catering channel, the existing rice flour oil platform can be used as a very good carrier to promote condiment products. (4) The central kitchen has a broad business space. The central kitchen is an important new business segment with high synergy with the existing business. The company has a series of cost advantages such as production, marketing and distribution, and the product quality is high. First, most of the company's central kitchens are close to the existing comprehensive factories, so the rice, flour, oil and other raw materials produced by the factories can be directly and timely distributed Send to the central kitchen to reduce transportation links and save packaging costs; Secondly, the company has a leading baking center and culinary college. Technical developers can innovate and study how to use appropriate raw materials and application methods to develop higher quality and delicious products, and can also provide customers with professional and customized product R & D and innovation services; In addition, the company also has a daily chemical production line, which can provide cleaning services to the kitchen and catering industry; Finally, the products of the central kitchen can make use of the company's existing sales channels to further reduce the production, logistics and marketing costs. The central kitchen project in Hangzhou is expected to be put into trial operation by the end of this year at the earliest. In addition, the central kitchen projects in Chongqing, Langfang and Xi'an are under construction and are expected to be put into operation in 2022.
12 recommended portfolio: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) rose or fell by Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (13.64%), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (10.98%), Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) (14.46%), Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) (12.95%), Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (13.54%) respectively, and the portfolio yield was 2.04%. In the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.52%, and the portfolio rose 11.59% higher than the Shanghai Composite Index.
Investment strategy: the layout is at the right time. In the first half of this year, despite the repeated epidemic in 2020-2021, although the consumption is expected to cool down, the growth of food and beverage is stable. The catering industry chain has been greatly affected by the epidemic. By the end of October, catering has recovered to the 19-year level. With the effective control of the epidemic, catering is expected to be gradually repaired. The price of raw materials has risen sharply, the performance of food and beverage Q3 is under pressure, and the price of manufacturer Q4 is intensively adjusted. The performance is expected to accelerate next year. The layout is just right. Baijiu hold high grade wine and embrace the high-end elastic label. Pickled mustard, Anjing, Jue Wei, Cha Cha, Yili, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) are recommended for food, and Chenguang, Aipu and Liguo can also be considered.
Risk tips: risk of global and Chinese epidemic spread, risk of large outflow of foreign capital, sauce and wine inventory and policy.
