Event: the National Energy Administration issued the administrative measures for power auxiliary services
On December 21, 2021, the National Energy Administration revised and issued the regulations on the management of power grid connected operation, and revised the Interim Measures for the management of auxiliary services of grid connected power plants (Dian Jian Shi Chang [2006] No. 43) and changed its name to the measures for the management of power auxiliary services.
The core is to straighten out the business model & run through the economy, The new policy promotes the development of the supply side (energy storage, etc.) of auxiliary services, expands the scope of the main providers of auxiliary services, emphasizes fully tapping the flexible regulation capacity of both sides of supply and demand through the market mechanism, and speeds up the construction of a new power system. It emphasizes that the compensation mode and sharing mechanism shall be determined according to the principle of "who provides, who benefits, who bears".
In this policy, the allocation subject of auxiliary services will be expanded to upstream power generation enterprises + downstream users, and the price will be formed by market-oriented transactions. So from a marginal point of view, Insufficient supply of short-term auxiliary services (it is also the main consideration for the state to introduce the policy as soon as possible). In the follow-up, we can see that the energy storage peak shaving and frequency modulation service corresponds to the increase of electricity price and yield, and the economy drives the industry's large-scale volume. In the long run, with the increase of the proportion of new energy power generation + the increase of power side fluctuation, the demand for auxiliary services will increase rapidly, and under the action of market mechanism, the supply side will cooperate with the demand to quickly follow up Come on. (according to the data released by the national energy administration, the cost of auxiliary services including peak shaving accounts for about 1.5% of the total electricity cost of the whole society at this stage, and is expected to reach 3% or even higher in the future). Only in terms of the frequency modulation demand required by new energy, it is expected that the growth rate of the market will not be lower than the installed growth rate of new energy.
Increasing the certainty of energy storage capacity on the source side in China
Previously, some parts of China required wind power plants to be forced to allocate energy storage / give road inclination. However, due to the lack of economy, the construction was delayed after winning the bidding, or the energy storage was not connected to the grid after being built. In this round of policies, it is required that the primary frequency modulation, AGC service and reactive power service capacity of new energy power stations when connected to the grid meet the national requirements, otherwise there are restrictions on the Internet. Compared with whether to allocate and store, the assessment index focuses more on the performance of grid connected power. In order to meet the performance requirements, the power station needs to configure energy storage / carry out unit transformation / purchase frequency modulation services, etc. After rationalizing the economy, the energy allocated and stored by the power station can participate in the auxiliary service market after meeting its own use, and the allocation and storage costs are shared by the end users to get through the business model. It is expected that after the grid connection requirements are strict and economic benefits can be obtained, the certainty of the energy storage capacity allocated on the source side of China will be improved.
The system feasibility and the rate of return of auxiliary service projects are guaranteed
Taking Guangdong Province, which promotes FM service, as a reference, the price of FM service capacity ranges from 5-15 yuan / MW, and the yield of grid connected FM power stations can reach more than 10%. The implementation of market-oriented mechanism and the economy of the project have been verified. After being extended to the whole country, it is expected to promote the rapid rise of equipment demand for auxiliary services.
Investment suggestion: the energy storage at the source network side is expected to increase, focusing on the three main lines
1) Enterprises with power grid project experience and high EMS performance and operation capacity are expected to obtain excess returns, focusing on: Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co.Ltd(002169) , Hnac Technology Co.Ltd(300490) ; 2) The new demand of the auxiliary service trading market for the power grid side is mainly concentrated on the software side, focusing on: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) ; 3) Optimistic about the electrochemical energy storage industry chain, focusing on PSC and energy storage system industry chain ( Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ), temperature control suppliers ( Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) ), fire equipment enterprises ( Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) ).
Risk statement
The implementation of the policy was not as expected.
