This week’s view: power coal: in terms of supply, the supply guarantee policy has not been withdrawn. Only northern Shanxi has completed the supply guarantee task, and the overall supply of coal mines in the producing area is stable. In terms of demand, since December, affected by the high overall temperature, the daily consumption of the power plant is lower than that in the same period of previous years. Under the supply guarantee policy, the inventory has increased significantly. Under the downward expectation of coal price, the market has a strong wait-and-see mood. With the Winter Olympics approaching, the demand for industrial coal has also decreased. However, with the arrival of the sixth round of cold wave, it is expected that the demand for civil power will increase or increase the daily consumption of the power plant, thus giving some support to the coal price. Overall, under the expectation of the cold wave, the coal demand of the power plant is expected to increase. However, affected by the Winter Olympics and the Spring Festival holiday, the overall demand for thermal coal may continue to be weak, and the short-term thermal coal price is expected to be weak. Coking coal: in terms of supply, coal mines in producing areas continued to reduce production. Considering safety production, coking coal supply is still expected to tighten in December. In terms of demand, the inventory of coking coal in coking plant and the number of days available in inventory increased this week. Overall, under the tight supply of coking coal, it is expected that the short-term coking coal price is expected to be strong. Coke: in terms of supply, the operating rate of coking plant decreased slightly year-on-year. In terms of demand, the operating rate of blast furnace continued to fall slightly, the coke inventory of steel mills and ports increased, and the coke inventory of coking plants decreased. Overall, coking coal prices have continued to rise recently, squeezing the profits of coke enterprises. With the low or even zero inventory of coke enterprises and the tightening of environmental protection, there is a tense trend of coke supply, and coke enterprises have a strong willingness to increase prices. It is expected that the short-term coke price is expected to be strong, and it is necessary to focus on the commencement of the steel plant in January.
1. Thermal coal: this week, the price of thermal coal in Chinese ports was weak and downward. On December 24, the latest transaction price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port was 902 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton from last Friday; In terms of origin price, on December 17, the plate price of 5500 large trucks in the southern suburb of Datong, Shanxi was 900 yuan / ton, down 34 yuan / ton from last Friday; On December 24, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 5.09 million tons, an increase of 190000 tons over last Friday. In terms of demand, since December, affected by the high overall temperature, the daily consumption of the power plant is lower than that in the same period of previous years. Under the supply guarantee policy, the inventory has increased significantly. Under the downward expectation of coal price, the market has a strong wait-and-see mood. With the Winter Olympics approaching, the demand for industrial coal has also decreased. However, with the arrival of the sixth round of cold wave, it is expected that the demand for civil power will increase or increase the daily consumption of the power plant, thus giving some support to the coal price. In terms of inventory, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port on December 24 was 5.09 million tons, an increase of 190000 tons compared with last Friday. In terms of supply, the supply guarantee policy has not been withdrawn. Only northern Shanxi has completed the supply guarantee task, and the overall supply of coal mines in the producing area is stable. In terms of import, as of December 24, Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) Australian coal q5500 warehouse raised the price by 1205 yuan / ton, a decrease of 100 yuan / ton compared with last Friday; Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) the price of Indonesian coal q5500 warehouse increased by 1205 yuan / ton, a decrease of 100 yuan / ton compared with last Friday. Overall, in terms of supply, the supply guarantee policy has not been withdrawn. Only northern Shanxi has completed the supply guarantee task, and the overall supply of coal mines in the producing area is stable. In terms of demand, since December, affected by the high overall temperature, the daily consumption of the power plant is lower than that in the same period of previous years. Under the supply guarantee policy, the inventory has increased significantly. Under the downward expectation of coal price, the market has a strong wait-and-see mood. With the Winter Olympics approaching, the demand for industrial coal has also decreased. However, with the arrival of the sixth round of cold wave, it is expected that the demand for civil power will increase or increase the daily consumption of the power plant, thus giving some support to the coal price. Overall, under the expectation of the cold wave, the coal demand of the power plant is expected to increase. However, affected by the Winter Olympics and the Spring Festival holiday, the overall demand for thermal coal may continue to be weak, and the short-term thermal coal price is expected to be weak.
2. Coking coal: the price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port this week was 2450 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton compared with last Friday. Coking coal market is running strongly this week. In terms of demand, the comprehensive operating rate of coking plant this week was 59.48%, down 1.28% from last Friday. In terms of inventory, in absolute terms, the coking coal inventory of 100 sample coking plants in China this week totaled 6.3766 million tons, an increase of 277900 tons over last Friday; In terms of relative volume, the average available days of coking coal storage in coking plant were 16.28 days, an increase of 0.83 days over last Friday. In terms of supply, with the completion of the annual task, some coal mines began to take the initiative to stop and limit production, including some key state-owned mines. With the recent tightening of safety inspection, the supply of coking coal was gradually tightened. Overall, in terms of supply, coal mines in producing areas continued to reduce production. Considering safety production, coking coal supply is still expected to tighten in December. In terms of demand, the inventory of coking coal in coking plant and the number of days available in inventory increased this week. Overall, under the tight supply of coking coal, it is expected that the short-term coking coal price is expected to be strong.
3. Coke: the closing price of Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) primary coke this week was 2680 yuan / ton, the same as last Friday; The factory price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke was 2560 yuan / ton, unchanged from last Friday. The coke market operated smoothly this week. In terms of demand, the national blast furnace operating rate was 45.99%, down 0.42% from last Friday. In terms of inventory, the coke inventory of 110 Chinese sample steel mills this week totaled 4.3799 million tons, an increase of 105600 tons over last Friday. The coke inventory of 100 independent coking plants in China totaled 380100 tons, down 61900 tons from last Friday. Port inventory totaled 1.873 million tons, up 225000 tons from last Friday. In terms of supply, the comprehensive operating rate of the coking plant this week was 59.48%, down 1.28% from last Friday. Overall, in terms of supply, the operating rate of coking plant decreased slightly year-on-year. In terms of demand, the operating rate of blast furnace continued to fall slightly, the coke inventory of steel mills and ports increased, and the coke inventory of coking plants decreased. Overall, coking coal prices have continued to rise recently, squeezing the profits of coke enterprises. With the low or even zero inventory of coke enterprises and the tightening of environmental protection, there is a tense trend of coke supply, and coke enterprises have a strong willingness to increase prices. It is expected that the short-term coke price is expected to be strong, and it is necessary to focus on the commencement of the steel plant in January.
Risk tips: the macro economy has fallen sharply, the coal price has fallen sharply, the coke production limit is less than expected, the coal price has been regulated by policy, a large number of new production capacity has been released, the policy of imported coal has been tightened, and the coal management ticket in Yulin has been released
