Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (000799)
event
On December 26, 2021, the Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) fragrance conference with the theme of “standing in the year of the ox and climbing the peak in the year of the tiger” – the 2021 national partner annual conference was held in Changsha, Hunan, and the management of the company attended the conference.
It will end smoothly in 2021 and develop with high quality in 2022
In 2021, the company took several achievements: the national standard for fragrant and fragrant Baijiu was officially released. The capacity construction is also accelerating (the production capacity of 2000 tons of base liquor in the production zone 2 has been completed, the production capacity of 10800 tons of base liquor in the production zone 3 has been completed, the storage capacity of 17800 tons, and a 13000 tons of base liquor warehouse can be built. After the construction is completed, one Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ), the internal participation has achieved high growth, the number of dealers has increased rapidly, the brand nationalization has accelerated, the number of large merchants has increased steadily, and the cultivation of excellent merchants has taken effect.
In 2022, guided by the four strategic initiatives of “adhering to brand leadership, strengthening innovation drive, deepening manufacturer co construction and improving capacity layout”, taking “building base, breaking highland and deep nationalization” as the main line, taking high-quality and high growth as the goal, the assessment dimensions are single product breakthrough, market depth, excellent business growth, system victory, innovation drive and cultural innovation.
Adhere to the principle of “strengthening the base, breaking through the highland and deepening nationalization”, and implement the policy of “1349”
The company adheres to the strategy of “strengthening the base, breaking through the highland and deep nationalization”; Among them, the base market focuses on depth, scale and dynamic marketing, and the highland market focuses on brand, value, banner and guidance. The direction of deep nationalization is to gradually turn the outer market and the middle non key market into a base market, gradually turn the base market into a large-scale market, and gradually turn the highland market into a base market.
The “1349” policy will be implemented in marketing in 2022, Specifically refers to “One concept, three directions, four supporting points and nine core operation strategies. One concept refers to creating + sharing with dealers; three directions refer to strengthening the base, breaking through the high point and deepening nationalization, in which Hunan, Henan, Hebei and Shandong are the base market and Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are the highland market; four supporting points are brand value-added, product value-added, market increment and customer profit increase; and nine core operation strategies The strategies are: core product strategy, core market strategy, excellent business strategy, core terminal layout strategy, circle marketing strategy, base market building strategy, highland market building strategy, in-depth national breakthrough strategy and digital marketing strategy.
Internal parameters become the power engine, and the medium-term goal is imminent
After several years of operation and operation, the company has successfully gone out of the province, and the investment promotion layout outside the province continues. At present, the company’s advantageous regions are mainly in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and Guangdong, and other regions need time to cultivate. East China is expected to become the company’s next granary. The company will take scale as an important assessment index in the next 3-5 years, in which the internal reference will play the role of power engine, and will go all out to sprint the short-term goal of 3 billion, medium-term goal of 5 billion and long-term goal of 10 billion, and the medium-term goal will be achieved soon. We expect that the product structure of the company in the future will be internal participation: drunkard series: Xiangquan = 4:5:1.
At present, the company’s management is stable, the company is the only liquor enterprise in COFCO Baijiu, and COFCO pays more attention to the company than before. Mr. Zheng Yi, vice general manager of COFCO liquor in the early stage, served as the vice chairman, general manager and chief financial officer of the company, which is expected to promote the progress of equity incentive of the company.
Profit forecast
In the five years since COFCO took over, For the company’s brand side (emphasizing the best product · cultural drunkard, the positioning of the three brands is clear), the product side (the proportion of secondary high-end and above continues to increase, focusing on building three strategic single products), the price side (combing the product price system and comprehensively introducing the price control mode) and the channel side (internal reference equity dealer mode and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) Clarify the division of labor among manufacturers) to reshape, expand production capacity and ensure quality. In the 14th five year plan, the company will go all out to achieve the goals of 3 billion in the short term, 5 billion in the medium term and 10 billion in the long term. We are optimistic about the national expansion of the company’s internal participation. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.98/4.61/6.39 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 77 / 50 / 36 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk statement
Macroeconomic downside risks, the epidemic drag on consumption, the growth of internal participation is less than expected, and the expansion outside the province is less than expected.
