Zhitong finance and economics learned that westbeck capital management, a hedge fund that has long been engaged in oil futures and stocks, said that the expected prospect of restricting energy exports from Russia could push oil prices above $200 a barrel.
The Fund said that although a possible Iranian nuclear agreement would pave the way for Iranian oil to return to the market, it would still bet that oil prices would continue to rise after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Westbeck said that the continued damage to Russian oil exports, coupled with the destruction of demand, could push oil prices to the range of $150175, or even more than $200. At the same time, soaring oil prices could in turn exacerbate inflation, forcing the fed to put the brakes on raising interest rates.
"The oil market and stock market have not priced this situation, but we think it is highly possible. Investors should consider preventing the impact of this result," the Fund said
In addition, westbeck said that if the soaring oil price leads to an economic recession, oil itself seems to be a better investment than oil stocks, which is also consistent with the global financial crisis in 2008. If stocks are to be considered, the fund prefers oilfield service companies.
It is reported that JPMorgan also released a report earlier, which said that Brent crude oil is expected to reach US $185 by the end of the year. However, this is JPMorgan's Outlook under extreme scenarios. In the report, JPMorgan maintained its oil price forecast, that is, the average price of Brent crude oil in the second quarter was US $110 per barrel, US $100 per barrel in the third quarter and US $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The bank expects that if Iranian oil does not return to the market, the average oil price will reach US $115 in the second quarter, US $105 in the third quarter and US $95 in the fourth quarter.
Bank of America believes that if most of Russia's oil exports are cut off, even if the release of strategic reserves and the increase of OPEC exports are offset, Russia may still have an oil gap of 5 million barrels per day or more. This means that oil prices could double, from $100 to $200 a barrel.
