Affected by geopolitical risks, international oil prices rose rapidly. The price of light crude oil futures in New York exceeded $110 this week, a new high in recent 10 years. Although it is difficult to determine how long the high oil price will last, the geopolitical situation is difficult to calm down in the short term or soon, so the current high oil price should be a high probability event.
The rise of international oil prices is bound to lead to the rise of global commodity prices, which will heat up inflation expectations around the world. JPMorgan warned that if oil prices rose to $150 a barrel, global economic growth would stagnate and inflation would soar above 7%.
The high oil price is also a double-edged sword for downstream fossil energy consumption. The rise in the cost of raw materials will eventually be transmitted to downstream end products, resulting in the rise in product prices and the decline in consumer demand.
at the same time, high oil prices will also accelerate the development of non fossil alternative energy and low-carbon economy this is another investment idea under the background of high oil price.
In fact, many countries have taken precautions, because with the escalation of western economic and financial sanctions against Russia, Russia, as the world's major oil exporter, may reduce oil exports, thus affecting the global oil supply chain.
The German Ministry of climate and energy recently proposed a draft legislation, which plans to achieve the goal of 100% renewable energy power generation by 2035, 15 years ahead of the original plan;
The United States is calling for the implementation of tax credits and the establishment of a climate fund to use all means to mitigate the impact of rising oil prices.
China is also vigorously developing green alternative energy such as wind power and photovoltaic power. In 2021, China's newly installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation reached 101 million KW, including 47.57 million kw of wind power, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, 52.97 million kw of photovoltaic power, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, both ranking first in the world, and this growth rate is still rising, In January this year, the newly installed capacity of wind power photovoltaic in China exceeded 12 million KW, which has reached 12% of that in 2021.
In fact, wind power is nothing new. More than ten years ago, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) and wind energy set off a wave of great investment boom. Polycrystalline silicon once rose to sky high prices, and wind power enterprises with a share of 90 yuan, such as Sinovel wind power emerged.
But why is the "second spring" only now one of the important reasons is that the global pace of promoting carbon neutralization and carbon compliance is accelerating. Many countries have put forward medium and long-term goals to control fossil consumption and the trend of using alternative new energy is irreversible
Another important reason is that although wind power is green, it also has a fatal weakness, that is, instability. This instability includes seasonal factors of power generation and the fluctuation of power output, which inevitably leads to the embarrassment of "power failure" in the process of output and use of wind power.
Therefore, from the perspective of economic benefits, if wind power can not achieve relatively stable output and use, or can not be seamlessly connected with the existing power grid, the operation benefits will be greatly reduced, and the desire for market investment will drop sharply.
He Rui has been listed for a long time, but now he Rui has been listed at a loss.
In order to make wind power glow with "the second spring", policy support alone is not enough. The key is to solve the short board and the new type of energy storage is an important part of whether the alternative energy of wind and solar power can be vigorously developed in the future. It is also a new investment hotspot of alternative energy. Whether it is digital economy or alternative energy, it needs network energy storage
Take digital economy as an example. At present, China's key development is 5g and IDC data center , which have become the two key points of digital economy development.
In terms of 5g, the Ministry of industry and information technology has made it clear that it will speed up the construction. 6 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) g base stations will be built this year, while only 14250005g base stations have been built and opened in China in previous years, accounting for more than 40% of those built in previous years; Another example is the data center. With the launch of the "counting from the east to the west" project, it is necessary to build 8 National Computing hub nodes such as Beijing Tianjin Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, the Great Bay area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, Chengdu and Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Gansu and Ningxia, and plan 10 national data center clusters.
Both 5g base stations and IDC data centers are large energy consumers. It is estimated that the power consumption of 5g base stations will rise to 2.1% of the power consumption of the whole society by 2026, and the annual power consumption of data centers will account for about 5% of the power consumption of the whole society by 2025, which will add up to more than 7%.
Therefore, both 5g base stations and data centers need to be equipped with precision air conditioning, power management and energy storage supporting network energy to reduce consumption. For example, for the new data center, the state clearly stipulates that the pue energy consumption value must be less than 1.3, otherwise the energy consumption index will not be given. China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) once planned to build a 3000 rack data center in Yizhuang, Beijing, It is because the energy consumption index is not up to standard and there is no power supply quota, which can be seen.
as for the new energy storage supporting market required by the development of wind power, it is more imaginative
As mentioned earlier, energy storage equipment can smooth the peak valley difference of wind power output, reduce the volatility of these alternative new energy power use, and achieve more stable economic benefits.
It is estimated that with the vigorous development of wind power, the market demand for new energy storage equipment increases by more than 10 billion every year, and many of them are matched through policies. Otherwise, there will be a large number of abandonment of wind and power, which is contrary to the original intention of developing new energy.
Since the current efforts to develop wind and solar power are distributed or located in remote areas, the conditions for pumped energy storage are basically not available, and the market increment of electrochemical energy storage that can be quickly and easily deployed, especially lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage, is the largest. The State Grid alone will increase the electrochemical energy storage from 3 million kW to 100 million KW by 2030.
in this field, enterprises that have the whole industrial chain of cell technology, battery production and power management and can realize rapid delivery are expected to replicate Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in the dominant position of power battery
