Today (March 4), the three major A-share indexes opened low across the board. The Shanghai index showed signs of slow rise in the session, and then fell back and down. The gem index and the gem index also rose and turned red for a time, but they lacked the upper offensive power, gradually fell down, and the stock index accelerated the diving Festival near noon.
From the disk point of view, the industry and concept sectors fell more or rose less, and the local profit-making effect plummeted. Coal stocks led the rise, and the targets of the pharmaceutical industry chain blossomed in an all-round way. In the biomedical sector, Hubei Goto Biopharm Co.Ltd(300966) , West Point pharmaceutical, etc. staged a 20cm limit, C.Q.Pharmaceutical Holding Co.Ltd(000950) , Shanghai Kaikai Industry Company Limited(600272) , China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) , etc. It is worth mentioning that as of press time, Shanghai Kaikai Industry Company Limited(600272) , China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) have realized three connected boards. In addition, semiconductor, education, pork and other sectors performed prominently.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] biomedicine
Great Wall Guorui Securities pointed out that the valuation is at the bottom of history and the current investment value of the pharmaceutical industry is prominent. It is suggested to increase the allocation proportion of the industry and pay attention to investment opportunities in six aspects: first, the performance disclosure of the annual report in 2021 and the first quarterly report in 2022 is imminent, and pay attention to the high-quality targets with high growth or higher than expected performance of the annual report and the first quarterly report; Second, with the official release of the 14th five year plan for the development of pharmaceutical industry, under the premise of controlling medical insurance expenses, innovation and internationalization will be the core main line of the industry in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to innovation driven companies and pharmaceutical enterprises with international ability; Third, the CXO industry. Recently, the CXO industry has undergone in-depth adjustment, and the valuation is at the bottom of history. Contrarian, focus on companies with sufficient orders and reasonable current valuation; Fourth, drugstore chain companies with reasonable valuation and stable recovery; Fifth, pay attention to the consumer medical sector. Under the background of medical insurance fee control, the ophthalmology, medical beauty and other medical sub industries with consumption attribute have policy immunity, and the consumption upgrading will drive their development; Sixth, pay attention to the traditional Chinese medicine sector. The release of the guiding opinions on medical insurance supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine shows the state’s determination to the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, which will play a positive role in the traditional Chinese medicine industry.
Guosheng Securities said that medicine has entered the medium and long-term layout range, and the medium and short term is still bottom-up, with more emphasis on the three factors of “performance valuation chips”. Up to now, the “double high problem” has been digested. Although there are many assets with unspeakable short-term valuation, extremely cheap and short-term concerns that are difficult to prove false, they have entered the allocation range in the medium and long term. In the short and medium term, in fact, there is no systematic solution. Recently, there have been problems in the chip structure of the whole market. Our idea is still to select individual stocks from bottom to top. There are three points to sum up: 1) select individual stocks with “fundamental common sense valuation oversold and discount”, in other words, they have fallen to the second-order derivative of the irrational valuation range. 2) The sub areas of “domestic demand policy immunity” and “foreign demand is relatively rigid” are selected to take into account the comprehensive and sudden impact of the current geopolitical environment and medical policy environment, especially the emotional impact. Such as adult class II vaccine, self-control, China covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain, traditional Chinese medicine, rehabilitation, cdmo, etc. 3) Due to the high degree of chaos in stage trading, the chip factor should be fully considered when bottom reading.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that considering the background of the pharmaceutical industry, on the one hand, the uncertainty caused by the continuous implementation of the centralized procurement policy this year (centralized procurement of consumables, national procurement, alliance procurement, etc.), on the other hand, the short-term pharmaceutical industry sector has not seen clear favorable policies / changes, and there is no upward momentum in the short term. It is advisable to look at the quantity of scenery. The valuation of many pharmaceutical companies has reached a very reasonable range. The uncertainty of changes brought by policies makes many investors unable to start. We suggest the direction configuration of this year: Traditional Chinese medicine (policy friendly + undervalued value) + medical equipment (medical infrastructure) + scientific research reagents and upstream + other directions to find the target from bottom to top.
[Theme 2] pork
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) said that after the pig price fell excessively, it entered the shock adjustment range, and the subsequent collection and storage work caused resistance to the continuous decline of short-term market prices. However, the oversupply of pig prices is still difficult to reverse, and the losses at the breeding end will continue. The sharp rise in feed prices caused by the current Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) comprehensive price rise of bulk will further push up the breeding cost and continue to promote the industry to take the initiative to reduce production capacity, which will further strengthen our expectation of starting the next round of rise in 2022.
The agency further analyzed that at this stage, the inflection point of the cycle is expected to gradually increase. Although the sector has increased greatly, the de novo average market value dimension is still in the bottom range, and the pig breeding sector is continuously recommended. Recommend targets with both safety and growth, with emphasis on Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , etc.
For the agricultural industry opportunities in 2022, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities pointed out that it firmly recommended the pig cycle. The core view is that in the bottom stage of the pig cycle, the deep loss period is the best time to layout breeding stocks. From the perspective of expectation, there will be no worse expectation. The risk of breeding stocks has been released in large quantities, and the safety margin is very high. With the decline of the number of fertile sows and the decline of pig prices again, the production capacity continues to clear, which is good for the industry to meet the dawn. Based on our judgment of the second bottom of 22q2-3, 22q1 is expected to be the second best time point for the layout of breeding stocks.
[Topic 3] semiconductor
Hongta Securities Co.Ltd(601236) mentioned that the structural shortage of chips and the rise of chip prices still exist, the supply of wafer foundry, some upstream equipment and raw materials is still tight, the growth rate of China’s semiconductor industry will maintain high growth in the next two years, and the expansion of downstream production will drive the demand for equipment and more upstream materials. Objects of concern: Konfoong Materials International Co.Ltd(300666) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Sg Micro Corp(300661) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) .
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) pointed out that the semiconductor market was ushered in by the spring breeze overnight. In the context of continuous shortage of production capacity, we continue to be optimistic about the structural market of the sector throughout the year. The opportunities of six segments of automotive electronics, server chips, special ICs, materials and equipment, wafer factories and IOT chips deserve attention.
First, automotive electronics: “electrification” and “intelligence” are the two main lines. We believe that the long-term growth of power semiconductor and lidar can be expected under the two main lines.
Second, servers: new demands such as “meta universe” catalyze the increase in the demand for enterprise level servers. Policies such as “counting from the east to the west” have improved the localization level of server chips, and the growth of domestic server chips can be expected.
Third, special IC: short supply is expected to continue throughout the year. Non market pricing makes the sector independent of the semiconductor cycle.
Fourth, materials and equipment: ‘production expansion’ and ‘localization’ are the main logic. We believe that SMIC Huahong Changcun Changxin has entered a “strategic” production expansion. With the gradual expansion of production capacity, the demand for domestic semiconductor materials has gradually increased since 22 years. Throughout the year, the growth of materials is significant.
Fifth, semiconductor manufacturing: “production expansion” and “price rise” have laid the foundation for growth and cycle.
Sixth, Internet of things: aiot has entered the accelerated stage of development, and the supporting intelligent technology has been mature. In addition, the epidemic situation in 2020 will catalyze the rapid and large-scale production of intelligent products.
[theme 4] coal
Guosheng Securities said that under the “double carbon” goal, the green transformation of traditional energy enterprises is imminent. Under the policy guidance, new materials and new energy are the direction of breaking the situation. At the same time, considering that most coal enterprises have abundant cash flow, Land & raw materials and other necessary resources for transformation, and thermal power & chemical operation experience, coal enterprises have advantages in transformation. Up to now, more and more coal enterprises have successively released development plans for new materials and new energy. The transformation of traditional energy enterprises is worth looking forward to and strongly optimistic about the investment opportunities for the transformation of coal enterprises this year.
Huajin Securities pointed out that it is still optimistic about the coal industry. First, March and April is the start-up season, and the demand for coking coal may be boosted. At present, the data level is also gradually verified; Second, most coal listed companies increase in advance. From the perspective of valuation, the current safety margin of coal stocks is high; Third, China’s coal prices are operating at a high level, and overseas prices are still strong. The performance level is expected to be maintained this year. After the sector is wrongly killed, there is a large room for repairing undervalued stocks. In the context of steady growth, it is recommended to pay attention to coking coal stocks with high flexibility and highly deterministic undervalued targets, such as Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) .
Kaiyuan securities mentioned that the current driving force of the coal sector is no longer the elastic release of performance supported by price. The short-term high performance of coal enterprises has been gradually recognized by the market, and the stable release of performance in the medium and long term is the key factor to clear the expected obstacles and guide the reconstruction of coal stock valuation. The investment logic of the coal sector may mainly focus on the two main lines of “stable growth” and “transformation”: in terms of “stable growth”, the infrastructure real estate chain benefits, which is good for the coal coke steel industry chain, and the peak of steel carbon can delay the demand for coking coal.
In addition, the price of coking coal is determined by the market and the policy is not controlled, so the coking coal sector still has obvious elasticity; In terms of “transformation”, under the background of carbon neutrality, the willingness of coal enterprises to increase production capacity has decreased significantly. In the future, coal prices will remain high and endogenous growth is insufficient, but epitaxial growth will become the mainstream. Coal enterprises are highly profitable and have the ability to make transformation, and the future opportunity period is within the next 5-10 years.
