[next week's strategy]
Review of this week's trend
This week, the index fluctuated and sorted out, with a slight net inflow of funds to the north. At the beginning of the week, the Shanghai index rebounded from shock and gained three consecutive positive results. However, with the intensification of fluctuations in peripheral markets, the weak correction of the Shanghai index was dragged down, and finally the K-line closed green. From the weekly K-line, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.11%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and gem index fell by 2.93% and 3.75% respectively. Individual stocks fell more or rose less, while coal, transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, comprehensive and social services rose higher; Automobile, electronics, power equipment, household appliances, computers and other sectors led the decline. This week, there was a net inflow of 4.275 billion yuan from the north, including a net inflow of 5.035 billion yuan from the Shanghai stock market and a net outflow of 760 million yuan from the Shenzhen stock market.
Study and judgment of the general trend next week: gradually stop falling and stabilize
From the market next week:
First, the policies of the two sessions are expected to be clear, and the steady growth policy may continue to be fulfilled.
Secondly, China's macro leverage ratio fell steadily, and the Federal Reserve hinted at raising interest rates by 25 basis points in March.
Thirdly, with a small net inflow of funds from the north and the central bank's recovery of market liquidity, the overall performance of funds was stable.
From the perspective of the market environment next week, the convening of the two sessions and the contents of the government work report will be the focus of market attention. It is expected to release positive signals and stabilize growth or gradually increase. Especially in the policy direction of investment, consumption and key industries, it is expected to stabilize market confidence. On the other hand, in the context of geopolitical conflict, the international oil price rises above US $100, which may continue to push up global inflation expectations and exacerbate the volatility of global financial markets. We need to pay attention to geopolitical factors. In terms of capital, the northbound capital will maintain a small net inflow, and the central bank will also maintain the stability of liquidity. It is expected that the overall performance of capital during the two sessions will be stable.
Overall, this week, the Shanghai index fluctuated and sorted out, and the Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index corrected somewhat, and the trend is still relatively repeated. Individual stocks fell more and rose less, coal led other sectors, and the market style switched again. From a technical point of view, the Shanghai index continues the trend of shock consolidation, and 3500 points are still suppressed in the short term, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index are weak, and market sentiment is still relatively low. However, driven by factors such as the gradual release of selling pressure caused by the market's concerns about the external environment, the rebound of the stability maintenance expectation of the two sessions and the continuous force of the steady growth policy, the market is expected to gradually stop falling and stabilize, and pay attention to the policies of the two sessions and geopolitical changes. In terms of industry configuration, it is suggested to pay attention to finance, basic chemical industry, building materials, TMT, environmental protection, steel and other sectors.
Operation suggestions
It is suggested to pay attention to finance, basic chemical industry, building materials, TMT, environmental protection, steel and other sectors.
Risk tips:
Escalation of trade friction; Deterioration of overseas epidemic situation; Sudden changes in the external environment.
