\u3000\u30003 Guangxi Hechi Chemical Co.Ltd(000953) 00095)
1. Company introduction:
The company was first established in 1992 and its product chain has been expanding. At present, the company's main business can be divided into industrial brakes, aviation tooling and parts, and metal cast pipe parts, of which the first two are the main increment at present.
1) the company's performance maintained steady growth, and its operating revenue increased year by year, from 594 million yuan in 2016 to 1.315 billion yuan in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.96%; The net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 46 million yuan in 2016 to 164 million yuan in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 37.17%. 2) In terms of profitability, the company's gross profit margin remained at about 40%, and the net profit margin reached 16.19% in the first three quarters of 2021, which was significantly improved compared with the previous level of about 9%. 3) In terms of expenses, the rates of administrative expenses and sales expenses decreased significantly. 4) In terms of sub business performance, the revenue proportion of wind power braking system has increased year by year, reaching 38.63% in 2020, which has become the main revenue source of the company.
2. Brake business:
The company is the leader of China's industrial brakes. A large number of products are widely used in ports, rail transit, wind power generation, construction machinery and other fields, with a market share of about 45% in the field of wind power. We believe that wind power may become the main incremental direction of the company's brake business. 1) in the field of wind power brakes, the company has reached the international advanced level, and wind power yaw braking maintains a leading market position in the country. 2) We expect that during the "14th five year plan" period, the annual new installed capacity of wind power will be more than 50gw, and the unit value of brake is expected to increase with the trend of large-scale wind turbine, and the head company has more obvious advantages. 3) It is the only global qualified supplier of Siemens wind power in China and is expected to open the overseas market.
3. Military business:
Ande technology, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, is an important supplier of Chengfei company, Aecc Aero Science And Technology Co.Ltd(600391) and other well-known enterprises. Its products mainly include tooling, mould, engine thrust reverser, gearbox, etc. At present, the number of main engine processing plants in Germany and anxie will continue to grow, and the proportion of main engine processing plants in Germany is expected to continue to grow. In addition, with the finalization and mass production of a certain type of turbofan aeroengine, the gearbox and reverse thrust products closely developed by ander technology will be supplied in batches, and the company will directly benefit from the rapid increase of this engine model.
4. Profit forecast:
It is estimated that the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.428 billion, 1.761 billion and 2.181 billion respectively, and yoy will be 8.60%, 23.36% and 23.81%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 232 million, 301 million and 418 million respectively, and yoy is 41.18%, 29.52% and 39.12%, corresponding to pe27x, 21x and 15x. According to the valuation of comparable companies, 38.37x in 2021 is selected as the target valuation. The target market value is 8.902 billion yuan, with an increase space of 48.60%, and the corresponding target price is 21.19 yuan. It is covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: wind power construction is not as expected, raw material price fluctuation risk, goodwill impairment risk, etc
