\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 90 Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released] the annual report for 2021. The annual operating revenue in 2021 was 1.118 billion yuan, an increase of 169% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 100 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 120%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 103 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 207%. Among them, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the operating revenue was 428 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 406% and a month on month increase of 39%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 43 million yuan, an increase of 652% year-on-year and 207% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 53 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2106% and a month on month increase of 382%. EPS1. 00 yuan, the performance exceeded expectations.
Graphite anode materials were in short supply, full production and full sales, and the profitability improved significantly in the fourth quarter. In 2021, the company’s graphite anode capacity reached 35200 tons, an increase of nearly 10000 tons compared with 2020, and there are still 20000 tons of capacity under construction. During the reporting period, the company had tight production capacity of graphite negative electrode materials, and the capacity utilization rate reached 112%. Benefiting from the rising overall prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry and the rapid growth of battery end demand, the company’s product demand increased, with the production sales ratio reaching 102%. At the same time, the inventory digested the income, and the inventory decreased by more than 50%. During the reporting period, due to the dual impact of the rapid development of the new energy industry and the limitation of environmental protection, the supply and demand of graphitization outsourcing processing as the upstream of the company was tight, and the processing fee increased significantly. The annual cost increased from 19900 yuan / ton in 2020 to 20700 yuan / ton, and the gross profit margin fell to 21% in the third quarter of 2021, which had a great impact on the profitability. In the fourth quarter of 2021, as the graphitization capacity of the company was completed and put into operation, the cost pressure was relieved, and the annual gross profit margin was revised up to 26%.
The integration and scale of graphite anode materials have been steadily promoted, and it is expected to achieve echelon cost reduction and efficiency increase. During the reporting period, the company actively promoted the layout of upstream raw materials and processing processes such as graphitization. According to public information disclosure, since September 2021, the company has planned an annual capacity of 15000 tons of graphitization, with a self supply proportion of 43%, of which 3000 tons have reached full capacity. In the future, with the promotion of graphitization supporting facilities, the company’s operating costs will decline further. In addition to alleviating the bottleneck of production capacity, it may have the opportunity to support greater profit space. In addition, in 2021, the company’s management expenses and R & D expenses increased significantly, which laid a good foundation for the company’s long-term development in the future through equity incentive and increased R & D. It is expected that in the future, with the release of raised investment capacity and the implementation of Sichuan Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) project, the sales will increase and the income will increase, and the expenses will be diluted to a large extent to realize the scale effect.
Firmly implement the “key customer strategy”, enhance the ability to resist risks, and actively layout new materials. The company has excellent customer quality and good structure. In 2021, the sales to the top five customers accounted for 96% of the total sales, and the downstream demand has a solid guarantee. According to the statistics of battery alliance, in 2021, the installed capacity of power batteries of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Byd Company Limited(002594) in China alone reached 105gwh, corresponding to the demand of about 150000 tons of negative electrode materials, which is far greater than the current capacity of the company. Meanwhile, during the reporting period, international well-known lithium battery enterprises such as Samsung SDI and Panasonic were also introduced to further open the Japanese and Korean markets, and the unit price of products is expected to increase slightly. In addition, the company has been involved in the field of silicon carbon anode, B-type titanium dioxide, graphene and other new carbon materials, has the basic conditions for industrialization, and has a certain anti risk ability for future technological changes.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.83 yuan, 2.78 yuan and 3.80 yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will maintain a compound growth rate of 56% in the next three years. Considering the stable growth of downstream demand of the company, the company’s own business expectation is good and the performance is highly uncertain, so it maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the risk of price fluctuation of raw materials, the risk of outsourcing processing, the risk of further increase in industry competition, and the risk of dependence on important customers
