Introduction to this report: Based on the strategic research and judgment of “wide credit expectation is rising, and the undervalued direction is still dominant”, combined with macro and industry views, build the gold stock portfolio in March.
Summary:
General trend research and judgment: periodic disturbance of risk preference. First, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine affects risk appetite, and the current risk aversion is dominant; Second, by affecting the supply of energy and other commodities, it will raise global inflation expectations. From a medium-term perspective, China’s economic recovery is still the core.
Considering the marginal relaxation in the real estate sector (the proportion of down payment, the relaxation of purchase and loan restrictions), the expectation of wide credit will rise again, and the driving of credit cycle → profit cycle will boost the steady growth market.
Russia Ukraine conflict: inflation is disturbed and risk assets are becoming desensitized. On February 24, Putin authorized Russian troops to carry out “special operations” in Ukraine, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated into militarized confrontation. Under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in the short term, the international commodity prices represented by crude oil have risen significantly, which will promote the upward continuation of inflationary pressure, and it is difficult to reverse the process of raising interest rates and shrinking tables in major global markets. At the same time, under the background of the improvement of external uncertainty, asset price volatility increases.
For the Chinese market, the long-term dominant factor lies in the performance of the economic cycle. This round of external shocks will be relatively limited, and the risk assets will gradually desensitize.
On undervaluation: still dominant. The earnings of the undervalued sector are highly sensitive to the economic cycle, and its market mostly comes from the expectation that the stable growth policy underpins the economy. The duration of undervalued market and excess return are highly related to the verification of enterprise profits: 1) the duration of two rounds of undervalued market in 200809 and 16-17 is long, mainly due to the continuous verification of enterprise profits; 2) The other four rounds of market lasted for 3-5 months, mainly manifested in the restlessness in spring (12 / 13 years) and the style switching under extreme bull market (14 years) / bear market (18 years). Considering that the profit expectation has not been reversed under the background of this round of steady growth, the undervalued sector is still in the dominant stage, that is, the “water flows to the lower place” we mentioned in January.
Perspective of performance forecast: the performance forecast rate of the annual report in 2021 reached about 58%, and the profit was in the falling range. As of February 25, the overall disclosure proportion of performance forecast of 2021 annual report of A-Shares reached 64%.
At present, the prediction rate of listed companies that have disclosed the annual report forecast is 58%, which is lower than 2021q3 (63%). The profit cycle of most industries such as agriculture, transportation, commerce and fishery, and new energy, commerce, transportation and forestry increased significantly year-on-year. In the first half of 2022, it is still difficult for the profit to get out of the pressure zone, but with the widening margin of credit expansion → the stabilization and recovery of the order cycle → it is difficult to take the initiative to go to the warehouse, the profit is expected to gradually recover in the second half of 2022.
Guojun strategy gold stock portfolio in March 2022:
1. Finance: Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) / Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) ; 2. Agriculture: Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) ; 3. Food and beverage:
\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 198； 4. Petrochemical: China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) ; 5. Building materials: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; 6. Dianxin: Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) ; 7. Electronic: Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) ; 8. Military industry: Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) ; 9. Automobile: Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) .
