Energy transformation does not mean the large-scale withdrawal of short-term coal power. The meeting mentioned that it is necessary to “continue to play the role of coal as a ‘ballast’, effectively play the basic regulatory role of coal power, and solidly improve the power safety and supply capacity”. At present, coal still plays a leading role in China’s energy consumption and power supply structure. In 2020, coal accounted for 56.8% of China’s total energy consumption, and coal power accounted for 60.8% of the annual power generation. At the end of the year, coal power installed capacity accounted for 49.1% of the total power installed capacity. Coal power is difficult to be replaced on a large scale. In addition to its basic energy status that cannot be shaken in the short term, another important factor is that there are certain constraints on other power generation methods at this stage. Considering the rigid growth characteristics of power consumption of the whole society in the future, it is very necessary to maintain a certain scale of coal power as the basic power supply base to ensure power supply when new energy can not fully meet the needs of power users.
“Building before breaking” and accelerating the development of new energy is the road map to achieve the dual carbon goal. The meeting pointed out that one of the key tasks for next year is to “accelerate the green and low-carbon development of energy”. In the implementation, “we must adhere to the first establishment, then destruction and overall planning”. According to the research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the carbon emission coefficients of coal, oil and natural gas are 0.7476, 0.5825 and 0.4435 tons of carbon / ton of standard coal respectively. Compared with the world’s major economies, China’s coal accounts for a significantly higher proportion in the primary energy consumption structure, which also determines China’s global co? The proportion of emissions is always at a high level. In view of the short-term fundamental position of coal power in China’s energy system, in the process of realizing the double carbon goal, we should accelerate the development of renewable energy and create favorable conditions for the gradual withdrawal of coal power. In addition, the national energy work conference once again released a positive signal to promote “wind power to the countryside”. If relevant support policies are implemented next year, it is expected to expand the space for decentralized wind power development.
Power market pricing mechanism is the key to promote the development of new energy. The meeting mentioned “accelerating the construction of a national unified power market system”. From January to November 2021, the medium and long-term direct trading electricity in the national power market accounted for 35.9% of the total social electricity consumption. The establishment of a unified power market and the realization of a larger proportion of power market-oriented transactions have the following two advantages: 1) it can return to the commodity attribute of power and give play to the decisive role of the market in the allocation of power resources. In the future, with the establishment of the national unified power market, it is expected to further dredge the price transmission mechanism between coal and electricity, reduce the operating burden of coal and electricity enterprises and maintain the balance between supply and demand in the power market. 2) It is conducive to the formation of a benign competition pattern among new energy enterprises. The national unified power market can break the barriers of cross provincial and regional trading of new energy power, promote the large-scale utilization of new energy, realize the trading of different energy in the same market, and play a complementary role.
In addition, when the development of some new energy enterprises depends on policy support for a long time and lacks endogenous growth capacity, bringing new energy enterprises into the national power trading market is also conducive to the survival of the fittest and the orderly liquidation of the industry.
Risk tip: the power market reform is less than expected, and the implementation of energy policy is less than expected
（ Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) ）
