the adjustment in the last two weeks is not due to trading congestion (the rise and fall deviation of various sectors in the market is not large, and the turnover rate is not very extreme), nor is it due to the deterioration of profits and economic expectations. From the perspective of commodity prices, economic expectations and policy expectations, the fundamentals of many sectors with high economic relevance are expected to improve slightly. The adjustment in the last two weeks may mainly come from the market fluctuations brought by investors' adjustment style. In the last month, it can be clearly observed that almost most of the industries leading the rise are the sectors with weak overall performance this year, such as food and beverage, aquaculture and media. Compared with the previous semiconductors, new energy and resource products, the component of valuation repair is a little larger. This change in logic means that the investors who made money in the last month and those who made money from March to October have completely different investment ideas and stock selection ideas, which also leads to the insufficient agglomeration of money making effect, resulting in the market adjustment in the last two weeks. However, considering that there is no problem with the overall capital and profit pattern, it will not affect the big logic of the cross-year market.
(1) the adjustment in the last two weeks does not come from trading congestion. recently, some sectors have made drastic adjustments, resulting in the weakness of the index in the last two weeks, but this adjustment does not need to worry too much for the time being. First of all, before this adjustment, the rise and fall deviation of each plate in the market was not very large. Before several important adjustments, the standard deviation of the rise and fall of primary industries in three months reached a high of 15% - 20% in March 2020, July 2020, February 2021 and September 2021, and there was a large transaction congestion in some parts. For the rise since November, the plate difference is not very extreme.
From the perspective of the turnover rate of each plate, it is not very extreme. The turnover rate of the strongest new energy vehicle sector this year has continued to decline since August, and the current level is not high. For the food and beverage sector with the strongest performance in the last month, the turnover rate of the sector rebounded slightly, but it is also at a low level as a whole.
(2) the adjustment does not come from further concerns about profitability (or economy). economic expectations have stabilized in the last month. In terms of the prices of major industrial products, they have continued to rebound since late November. Although the strength is much weaker than the rise from August to September, it at least means that the traditional cyclical industry fundamentals are stable.
There are two reasons behind the repair of economic expectations. First, the RRR reduction in December and the central economic work conference have made investors optimistic about the policy tone of 2022, and this impact is expected to continue until the beginning of next year. Secondly, if the economic indicators exceed the expectations, the macroeconomic indicators have been in the state of q2-q3 continuously low expectations, which has changed to slightly exceed the expectations.
(3) is mainly due to market fluctuations caused by investors' style adjustment. given that there are no problems with transaction congestion and economic expectations, the adjustment in the last two weeks may be mainly due to market fluctuations caused by investors' adjustment style. In the last month, it can be clearly observed that almost most of the industries leading the rise are the sectors with weak overall performance this year, such as food and beverage, aquaculture, media, etc.
Although these sectors are also expected to improve their fundamentals, compared with the previous semiconductors, new energy and resource products, the component of valuation repair is a little larger, and the data support for the improvement of prosperity is weak. This change in logic means that the investors who made money in the last month and those who made money from March to October have completely different investment ideas and stock selection ideas, which also leads to the insufficient agglomeration of money making effect, resulting in the market adjustment in the last two weeks. However, considering that there is no problem with the overall capital and profit pattern, the twists and turns this time should be relatively small and will not have an impact on the big logic of the cross-year market.
(4) short term strategy: the risk of cross year market is as early as mid January. there are three main driving forces supporting this cross-year Market: Valuation rebound + steady growth + seasonal recovery of residents' funds. The first driving force is the "valuation rebound". Since March, the adjustment time and amplitude of some sectors are large, so it is necessary to repair the valuation. The second driving force is the "optimistic policy before and after the new year". With the implementation of the RRR reduction, the new year's market will enter the second wave of rise dominated by stable growth expectations. Only the first two forces can only support the market to rise to January. Then, it is necessary to verify the activity of residents' funds and the implementation of stable growth policies. If it can be continuously improved, the cross-year market can continue to March. Our current judgment is still optimistic. We recommend investors to actively participate in the cross-year market.
industry configuration suggestions: the recent market stock selection logic is still carried out along the valuation repair. There are two main lines: first, the technical rebound of the consumer sector. In addition to the food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery that have rebounded continuously in the past quarter, tourism, hotels and commercial retail, which have been suppressed by the epidemic for a long time and have a large adjustment range in the previous period, began to perform in turn in December. Second, the valuation repair of relevant sectors with stable growth, and the real estate industry chain (real estate, building materials, etc.) also showed performance. As it is now a performance vacuum period and we are cautious about the performance outlook for the whole year of 2022, we believe that valuation repair will be the core stock selection logic before and after the next year. configuration suggestions: (1) the supply and demand cycle of military industry, hotel, aviation and other industries is independent, which can be paid attention to all year in 2022. (2) Generally, financial real estate can advance, retreat and defend in the middle and later stages of economic downturn, and the strength of steady growth will be gradually strengthened in the next six months, which can exceed the allocation for six months; (3) Food and beverage, home appliances, computers, media and other sectors with poor performance this year are in the process of quarterly rebound.
(fan Jituo's investment strategy)
