In the context of the science and technology industry cycle from 1 , 2 010 to 2015 , the growth market can be roughly divided into three stages. The first stage is the general rise LED by electronics and computers after the V-shaped reversal from 2 009 to 2010 , The second stage is the periodic pullback of growth under the downward profit environment from 2 011 to 2012 . During this period, the pullback of media computers is small. The third stage is the growth record in 2 013-2015 , led by media and computers. specifically, in the growth market from July 2009 to November 2010, the electronics and computer industry led the market, and the growth of hardware end segments such as LED, optical components and discrete devices was far ahead. The rise of Beijing Dynamic Power Co.Ltd(600405) in the electronics industry was due to the continuous improvement of performance end, while the computer industry was driven by valuation. From December 2010 to December 2012, the growth market stagnated. In the environment of liquidity contraction, the overall market valuation fell, the performance became the winner of the industry performance, and the decline of media and computers under the support of performance was relatively small. From January 2013 to June 2015, the growth market spread to the software industry and scene applications. The performance of media and computers was dominant. Software end segments such as software development, it services, film and television cinemas and games led the increase. The media and computer industry ushered in a new round of performance and evaluation in this round of market.
Mobile phone Internet plus 2 is the underlying logic of growth market segmentation. Track and clock is the underlying logic of growth. Subdivision of track and wheel is the main logic of consumer market. The 2010-2015 year consumer electronics is the main line. The technology cycle is triggered by software upgrading such as communication, smart phones, mobile games, video and Internet + software. the science and technology industry cycle from 2010 to 2015 takes the iteration of communication technology as the background, the breakthrough of smartphone penetration through the key threshold as the catalyst, and the theme of the industrial chain transitions from the equipment end to the application end. Corresponding to the growth of electronics, computers and media, the subdivided industries are dominant in this cycle. On the one hand, from 2010 to 2015, China experienced the change of “2g-3g-4g” communication industry cycle and the substitution of smart phones for traditional mobile phones. Under the background of continuous improvement of terminal equipment penetration, consumer electronics has become the main line throughout 2010-2015. On the other hand, as the penetration of terminal equipment continues to break through the key threshold, the theme of industrial cycle completes the transition from equipment end to application end. Specifically, from 2009 to 2010, Apple’s industrial chain rose, and the “machine change tide” caused by smart phones helped the outbreak of hardware end; In 2013, China’s smartphone penetration rate reached 70%, the content side achieved a breakthrough, and mobile games, domestic films and other contents entered the public’s vision; In 2014, the penetration rate of smart phones in China exceeded 80%. The mobile intelligent terminal operating system has become the core of the mobile Internet Ecology, and content application has become the theme of the science and technology industry cycle.
In the growth callback stage of 3 , 2011-2012, the science and technology industry cycle is in the window period of transition from the rise of hardware to the rise of software. There are several core factors. First, the prosperity of the hardware industry has declined under the environment of weak economic operation; Second, the matching degree between the valuation and performance of the hardware industry decreased; Third, the penetration rate of smart phones has not been raised to a certain threshold, leading to the expansion of the scale of the software and application market. Until the breakthrough of the content end in 2013, it catalyzes the penetration rate of smart phones and 3G to further exceed the threshold, resulting in the large-scale growth of hardware and software. from 2011 to 2012, in the environment of general market decline, the growth market stagnated, and the contraction of liquidity led to the overall correction of the valuation of the growth industry. At this stage, the performance is the winner of the industry performance, and the performance of the media and computer industries supported by the performance is dominant. During the transition period from hardware to software in the science and technology cycle, the consumer electronics industry, as the main industry in the early stage, still maintained its comparative advantage, but the digital media industry with upward mid-range bearing in the software content industry performed better. At the meso level, from 2011 to 2012, the weakening of the macro economy restrained the demand for terminal equipment, the relative prosperity of the hardware industry fell, and the development trend of the software industry has been formed, but it is still ready to go due to the insufficient penetration of 3G and smart phones. Subsequently, after the penetration of smart phones and 3G further crossed the threshold in 2013, it again catalyzed the massive growth of hardware and software.
4, this round of technology industry cycle also needs to go through the transition stage from the rise of hardware to the landing of software. On the one hand, the increase of new energy vehicle penetration is linear and will gradually transition to market dominance, but the stock price is ahead of the fundamentals. On the other hand, the outbreak of software side still lacks carriers and needs to meet the penetration threshold necessary for intelligence, Therefore, the subsequent growth may face structural differentiation. since the outbreak of Sino US trade friction in 2018, the importance of China’s scientific and technological innovation has further increased, and a new round of scientific and technological innovation cycle has been launched with the help of policies. From the perspective of landmark themes and events, the deductive context of the science and technology industry cycle is “independent and controllable – 5aiot – carbon neutralization – metauniverse”. From the hardware side, due to the shortage of lithium ore next year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to decrease. At present, there are differences in the new energy vehicle industry on the sales volume next year, and the subsidy for new energy passenger vehicles will continue to decline next year; In terms of semiconductors, the growth rate of the global semiconductor market in 2022 will be significantly slower than this year. First, the supply capacity expansion is limited, and second, the “core shortage” in demand will be alleviated next year, which will have less impact on the prices of some categories than this year. Generally speaking, the mismatch between supply and demand will still exist next year. At the same time, in terms of software, metauniverse still lacks breakthrough carriers and killer applications. In particular, Chinese companies are still in the stage of building architecture. There is no unanimously recognized caliber in the market in terms of market scale and growth prediction, and the development transition from hardware to software is gradually becoming a bottleneck.
5 . From the market level, the current growth is still the main line of long-term certainty. However, under the background that the performance continues to exceed expectations this year, the valuation of some growth industries has reached a high level, and the probability of market structure differentiation will increase next year. from the long-term perspective, the growth market is far from over. First, at the macro level, the backwardness of high-tech industries and the scarcity of core technologies are the short board of the “China big cycle”, which seriously threatens China’s industrial security. Second, at the industrial policy and meso level, domestic substitution, self-control and carbon neutralization goals are clear. At present, the trade deficit of integrated circuits is still expanding, The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has not yet reached the standard, and there is still significant incremental space at present. In the short term, under the background that the growth style has lasted for three years, the valuation of some growth industries has reached a high level, and the importance of grasping the subdivision track next year will be significantly higher than that in the previous three years. two clues need to be paid attention to for the growth of allocation. First, considering the cost performance, according to the consistent forecast of 10000 yuan in this year and next year, there is room for improvement in the performance growth of automobile, computer, media and military industries, with a high safety margin, and the performance forecast growth of other industries has declined compared with this year; Second, from the perspective of the rotation of the science and technology industry cycle, the breakthrough and development in the software field may become the main driving force for the valuation expansion in the expected leading capital market. In this round of science and technology cycle with consumer products such as automobiles and VR glasses as the carrier, the emergence of killer software and applications is still waiting to further catalyze the outbreak of sales. Attention should be paid to software development, it services Optical images and other scenery continue to subdivide the track.
risk tip: liquidity tightening exceeded expectations, economic stall decreased, Sino US friction intensified, and the epidemic situation deteriorated beyond expectations.
(Strategy Research)
