The dual carbon “1 + n” policy has been implemented one after another
On October 24, 2021, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the opinions on completely, accurately and comprehensively implementing the new development concept and doing a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization, which was used as the top-level design document “1” in the dual carbon “1 + n” policy system, and the dual carbon “n” series policies were also implemented one after another. According to incomplete statistics, relevant carbon peak implementation plans have been released in the fields of industry, agriculture, construction, coal and electricity, urban and rural construction, new infrastructure and so on.
Green power is the key to achieve the goal of double carbon
According to the data reported by the world bank, China’s per capita carbon dioxide emissions rank behind the United States, Germany, Japan and Russia, and before the United Kingdom, France and India. China is facing the realistic challenge of large-scale carbon emission, and the task of emission reduction is arduous. Among them, the power sector has the most carbon emissions, which is closely related to the dependence on fossil fuels in China’s power generation structure, and is the main direction to achieve the goal of “double carbon”. According to the data reported by BP, China’s non fossil energy power generation scale reached 2.55 trillion kwh in 2020, an increase of 2.47 times compared with 2009. The power generation scale is the world’s leading, forming a green power development pattern with hydropower as the main force and actively promoting scenery, and making an important contribution to global carbon emission reduction.
Green power opportunities under the transformation of green and low-carbon energy
Green power trading is open, which is expected to boost green power demand with the help of multiple factors such as dual control of energy consumption and dual carbon goals. The demand for cost reduction of wind power will promote the large-scale fan, and the large-size blade will improve the material requirements, which will drive the rapid growth of carbon fiber demand. Photovoltaic cell technology continues to make iterative progress and promote the improvement of photoelectric conversion efficiency. N-type TOPCON and hjt photovoltaic cells have higher conversion efficiency and are expected to replace the existing p-type perc photovoltaic cells. During the 14th Five Year Plan period and the 15th Five Year Plan period, it is planned to increase the installed capacity of hydropower by about 40 million KW respectively, and develop hydropower, wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation in Southwest China according to local conditions. As the key to assist green power consumption, energy storage will play an important role in the future high proportion of new energy power system. China will actively promote the construction of pumped storage and new electrochemical energy storage. By implementing large-scale flexible transformation of existing coal-fired power units and greatly increasing the regulation capacity of power system, it can effectively meet the demand of system peak shaving and promote larger-scale new energy consumption. The coordinated development of new energy electric vehicles and smart energy Internet is expected to realize the two-way smart flow of power between power grid and electric vehicles and enable the energy storage value of electric vehicles.
Risk statement
1. The implementation of the policy is less than expected; 2. Green power construction is not as expected; 3. The flexibility transformation of power grid and the construction of energy storage facilities are less than expected; 4. The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; 5. The price rise of raw materials exceeded expectations.
