The building materials industry has high energy consumption and carbon emission, and the total amount remains high. In 2018, the total energy consumption in the whole process of construction in China was 2.147 billion TCE, accounting for 46.5% of the total national energy consumption, and the total carbon emission was 4.93 billion tons, accounting for 51.3% of the national carbon emission; The energy consumption in the production stage of building materials is 1.1 billion TCE, accounting for 23.8% of the country, and the carbon emission is 2.72 billion tons, accounting for 28.3% of the country. Although the year-on-year growth rate of energy consumption and carbon emission decreased under the control of national policies during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the total amount is still large, and from the change trend of energy consumption and carbon emission in the national total amount, it can be seen that the decline trend of carbon emission in recent years is not obvious, while the proportion of energy consumption has increased since 2010.
Reach the peak in advance to become the industry initiative, and the industry upgrading has become an inevitable trend. According to the prediction of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) Energy Conservation Association, the peak time of building carbon under the benchmark scenario is 2040, and 1.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide will be emitted in 2060, which will seriously restrict the realization of the national carbon peak and carbon neutralization goal. Under the decarbonization scenario, the peak of building carbon can be achieved by the end of the 14th five year plan, resulting in 420 million tons of carbon emissions in 2060, a decrease of 72% compared with the benchmark scenario. On January 16, 2021, the China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) Materials Federation put forward an initiative on the industry’s carbon peak and carbon neutralization action: China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) the materials industry should fully realize the carbon peak by 2025, and cement and other industries should take the lead in realizing the carbon peak by 2023, with six supporting measures. Various specific guidance plans for the industry to reach the peak in advance have been issued, Industry upgrading has become an inevitable trend in the future development of building materials.
On the basis of combing the relevant logic of carbon neutralization and in combination with the development trend of international building materials, we believe that the sub industry of building materials has the following benefit paths: 1) the production side of building materials first pays attention to the cement sub industry with the largest proportion of carbon emissions, and the carbon reduction and environmental protection measures of leading enterprises are launched first, which is expected to obtain a stronger starting advantage in the future; The upgrading demand of intelligent environmental protection production line will also promote relevant enterprises to fully benefit. 2) The glass fiber and glass sectors at the consumption end of building materials will benefit from the lightweight development of photovoltaic, wind power and new energy vehicles respectively, bringing broad downstream market space to relevant enterprises; As an important direction of energy structure reform and energy substitution, photovoltaic power generation will support the volume and price of photovoltaic glass in 2022 with the decline of silicon price and the improvement of photovoltaic installation demand. In the long run, the demand for photovoltaic terminals will continue to grow with high certainty, and the permeability of superimposed double glass will increase, which will fully benefit photovoltaic glass. 3) It is the general trend to develop low-carbon and environment-friendly green buildings under the goal of carbon neutralization. Focus on gypsum, waterproof, ceramic tile, prefabricated building and steel structure. Improving the use efficiency of materials, labor and energy will further increase the penetration of green buildings and prefabricated buildings, The alternative demand for high carbon emission building materials such as concrete will promote the market space expansion of steel structures. 4) The refractory industry is the upstream of steel, cement and glass. Under the background of carbon neutralization, the development of green refractory will play an important role in energy conservation and emission reduction of downstream high energy consuming and high emission enterprises. With the support of national policies, the industry integration will also accelerate, and relevant companies in the industry will benefit
Risk tip: the progress of policy promotion is less than expected, and the progress of order release is less than expected.
