Market Review
In the five trading days last week (1220-1224), the building materials (CITIC) index rose by 2.02%, and the CSI 300 fell by 0.67%. The consumption of building materials and cement in the sub sector increased better. We judge that it may be related to the continuous improvement of real estate policy in the near future. Among individual stocks, Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co.Ltd(603268) , Fsilon Furnishing And Construction Materials Corporation(605318) , Cubic Digital Technology Co.Ltd(300344) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) led the increase.
Q1 building materials index has performed well over the years, paying attention to the opportunity of excess return of 22q1 building materials
From 17 to 21, the yield of Q1 building materials index was better than that of Shanghai and Shenzhen 3 million and wandequan a. The building materials index showed a trend of restraining first and then increasing in Q1 in 17, 18 and 20 years, and there was a more obvious expansion trend of excess return after the Spring Festival in these three years. In 19 years, although the index showed a unilateral upward trend, the excess return of building materials relative to the market also appeared after the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival of 21 years, both building materials and the market index fell, but the building materials index fell less and achieved positive excess returns. We believe that after the Spring Festival, it is in a critical period for the resumption of construction. In addition, the two sessions in normal years are held in March, and the market is easy to form good commencement expectations in Q1, which may be one of the catalytic factors for the “good start” market of building materials.
The ranking of building materials sub sector fluctuated relatively in Q1 over the years, such as cement. It was the sub sector with the best performance in the first quarter of 17 / 18, but it ranked lower since 19. Consumer building materials ranked steadily in the sub sector growth ranking in 17-21 years. We judged that it was related to the annual report performance and the catalysis brought by the resumption of real estate. The ranking of glass and glass fiber is stable in the tail range. We judge that Q1 may be related to the fact that Q1 is still in the off-season accumulation stage and it is difficult for product prices to rise. We judge that the resumption of work in Q1 in 22 years is expected to be good, driving the performance of building materials index Q1.
It is suggested that the investment chain should pay attention to the medium and long-term value of consumer building materials, and the emerging chain should pay attention to electronic / photovoltaic glass
1) Since the beginning of this year, the consumption of building materials has been affected by the real estate boom, the capital chain and the cost pressure caused by the continuous rise of bulk commodity prices. At present, the above factors are expected to be gradually improved. In the medium and long term, the leading companies have opened channel changes, and the scale effect is expected to continuously improve the industry concentration. The consumption of building materials is still the preferred track in the building materials sector in the medium and long term. 2) We expect that the subsequent demand on the real estate side is expected to hit the bottom and pick up, and the steady growth is also expected to marginally boost the demand for infrastructure. The supply rigidity of float glass is strong, and the demand side shows marginal improvement recently. Next year, the overall supply and demand of the industry may still be in tight balance. The downward space of unit profit of float glass is limited. Photovoltaic glass is expected to benefit from the recovery of the industrial chain, while electronic glass is expected to benefit from the large volume of new products such as domestic substitution and folding screen. 3) Cement is expected to benefit from the subsequent demand improvement expectation. In the medium and long term, the supply pattern is expected to continue to be optimized. 4) The demand side of glass fiber is driven by wind power, overseas and other downstream, the increment on the supply side is limited, and the leader may still have good growth in the medium and long term.
Investment advice
Medium and long term recommendations for consumer building materials Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , etc. Glass recommended Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Xinyi Glass, Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) (jointly covered with Dianxin); cement recommended Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ; glass fiber recommended China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ;
Risk tip: the demand for infrastructure and real estate fell more than expected, affecting the rising trend of cement and glass prices; The promotion of old reform and new urbanization was less than expected.
