Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809)
Event: recently Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) issued an announcement announcing that Chairman Li Qiuxi resigned due to his age, and the new chairman will be replaced by yuan Qingmao. The handover of the leader has attracted market attention. In addition, we recently tracked the marketing channels in Shanxi, Henan and North China, and updated our views on the company as follows:
Personnel changes are natural adjustments, and the certainty of strategic continuity is high. The handover of the chairman is a natural replacement. Chairman Li Qiuxi has reached the age of 60 this year and is retiring. The new chairman yuan Qingmao, 52, once served as the deputy director of Shanxi Provincial Department of transportation, the party secretary and chairman of Shanxi transportation Holding Group Co., Ltd. The news of this personnel change has attracted market attention in the short term. The main concern is the continuity of the company's strategy and brand potential energy after the change of command. However, since the reform of state-owned enterprises in 2017, Fenjiu's business potential has continued to rise, and the speed of Fenjiu created has gradually verified the significance of top-down reform for Fenjiu's revival. After the change of command, The continuation of the company's strategic direction is highly certain. From the channel feedback, the product structure, brand operation and other strategies are relatively stable next year, and the Fen Liquor Brand has a strong momentum, and the performance is expected to continue to increase in the coming year.
2021 will be a successful conclusion, and the product tension will be relatively strong. According to channel feedback, Fen Liquor sales were successfully completed in 2021, with an increase exceeding the expectations at the beginning of the year. It is estimated that the sales inside and outside the province will increase by more than 50%. In terms of products, Bofen maintained high growth as a high cost-effective large single product. In the second half of the year, manufacturers contracted their investment in Bofen, but with their own product strength, Bofen still showed a situation of short supply. The wholesale price of Qinghua 20 outside the province has continued to rise since the beginning of the year. At present, it is about 375-380 yuan. The actual dynamic sales are strong, the consumer group is expanding, the inventory of Qinghua 25 in the province is low, and the development momentum is also relatively strong. The market cultivation of qing30 revival version is also continuously promoted, and the actual terminal price is about 1000-1100 yuan. Panama's growth in the market outside the province is relatively stable, the mobile sales in the province are smooth, and it has also achieved high growth in the base market.
The high growth expectation in 2022 is strong, with structural upgrading and flat channels to ensure the quality of growth. At present, preparations for a good start have been started for 22 years, and dealers have strong confidence in the high growth next year. We believe that with the continuation of the reform dividend next year, the driving force of the company's high-quality growth is mainly as follows: 1) blue and white drive the upgrading: gradually change from "grasping both ends and leading the middle" to blue and white lead. It is expected that the cost of Bofen will be reduced and the investment of blue and white series will be increased next year, Fuxing version is the focus of development. It has flavor advantages and brand accumulation. The market cultivation is expected to gradually bear fruit after the price is raised smoothly. Qinghua 40 adopts the alliance mode and is expected to open the brand height next year. 2) Channel refinement: the channel flattening strategy continues. At present, the layout of specialty stores and terminals in some mature markets has been relatively perfect, the sales chain in key markets such as the south of the Yangtze River has also been shortened, at the same time, the business personnel of manufacturers have increased, the policy implementation and cost management have been implemented, the channel control has been enhanced under intensive cultivation, and the winery's feedback to the terminal market has been more rapid.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: maintain the net profit forecast of 5.8/75/9.7 billion in 2021-23, corresponding to EPS of 4.77/6.15/7.91 yuan, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 64 / 50 / 39 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the growth of blue and white series is less than expected, and the market expansion outside the province is less than expected.
