Liang Guoyong, a senior economist at the United Nations Conference on Trade and development, said in an exclusive interview with Xinhua News Agency reporters in Geneva that strong recovery, imbalance, weak supply and high inflation are the four key words to summarize the world economic trend in 2021. On December 18, a cargo ship docked at Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) international container terminal (UAV photo). On the same day, the container throughput in Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) exceeded 20 million TEUs for the first time, a record high. (Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhao zishuo)
Liang Guoyong said that after the negative growth of more than 3% in 2020, the world economy is expected to have a restorative growth of nearly 6% in 2021. Extensive vaccination of covid-19 vaccine and gradual economic liberalization are the key, and the two major economies of China and the United States have played a leading role in the world economic recovery.
Looking back on 2021, Liang Guoyong believes that China has made important contributions to the world economic recovery. First, China has responded effectively to the epidemic and its economy has recovered rapidly, playing a demonstration and leading role. Secondly, China’s stable production and strong export have provided support for the world economic recovery from the supply side. Thirdly, China has adhered to a prudent macroeconomic policy and avoided “big stimulus” and “big water release”, which is conducive to the long-term and stable development of its own and the world economy.
He pointed out that the world economy will show an unbalanced recovery pattern in 2021, with great differences in the performance of various regions, major economies and industries. The economic recovery of developing economies, especially low-income countries, still faces serious challenges. In terms of trade, the recovery of trade in goods is early and strong, and trade in services has been negatively affected by the epidemic for a long time. In addition, there is an obvious imbalance between supply and demand in the world economy, mainly manifested in limited supply, blocked supply chain, rising commodity prices, insufficient energy supply and so on.
He also said that the world economy as a whole is facing rising inflation. Among developed economies, the United States, Canada and some European countries have experienced high inflation. In emerging economies, inflation in countries such as Turkey is very serious.
Liang Guoyong analyzed that the emergence of high inflation is related to both supply constraints and demand expansion, but its essence is still a monetary phenomenon. From the situation of the United States, the emergence of high inflation is the inevitable consequence of responding to the impact of the epidemic with “unlimited” quantitative easing and “reckless” flood irrigation. It is difficult to effectively solve the problems in the supply chain in the short term.
Looking forward to the world economic trend in 2022, Liang Guoyong believes that the world economy may show a weak recovery and high-risk pattern. Emerging economies and developing countries should first strengthen risk prevention to avoid serious impact of external financial risks on their own economy.
He believes that the United States and other major developed economies to reduce the scale of debt purchase, exit quantitative easing and start the interest rate hike cycle are the inevitable choice of monetary policy. The continuation of high inflation will advance and accelerate this process. It is worth noting that the negative spillover effect of monetary policy adjustment in developed countries is very large, which will bring significant risks to the world economy. Emerging economies may face huge pressure from international capital outflow, rising financing costs and devaluation of local currencies. Some economies with weak economic resilience and weak anti risk ability of the financial system may have a serious financial crisis.
Turning to the challenges facing the world economy in 2022, he said that countries, especially major economies, should focus on the long term and strengthen cooperation. In terms of monetary policy, the central banks of major economies in particular need to strengthen policy communication and strive to reduce the external impact and spillover effect caused by the monetary policy adjustment of major developed countries.
(Xinhua News Agency)
